Why not call with A4s?

Just in case anyone stumbles on this blog who doesn't understand poker too well and is confused why I think it is bad that a guy calls a raise with A4s, this is why.

We were at t100. I had 2500 chips. I raised to 300. The most you can win from me if you get lucky is 2500 chips. So you are at best taking 2650/200 (my stack 2500 plus blinds of 150 vs your call) odds that Ah4h ends up the best hand against whatever I had.

Let's assume that you know nothing about me. You haven't been paying attention and you just have to assume I'm a standard donk. I don't have a huge stack but it was folded to me in the cutoff. Most players will not raise too wide a range, maybe 55+, A9+, KJ+. That's a bit wider than I'd raise, as it happens.

I can have bigger aces 12 ways, the king high hands 16 ways and pairs 6 ways.

If we flop it ace high, I'll probably cbet KQ/KJ and you can call that, planning to trap me for more bets later in the hand. But I won't bet again and you'll fold me out on the river. Same with pairs. My cbet is likely to be about 300. I won't always make it, particularly with better pairs because they have showdown value.

So let's say I cbet with 55-99, KQ and KJ. That's 62 hands that make you 300 chips each.

But I'll also bet all my ace-high hands. I have 60 of those. Oh dear. And you are getting stacked by them unless you have flopped A4. You'll do that about 1.5 per cent of the time (because I hold one of your "outs"). Some small amount of the time, I will outredraw you. If you're not stacked on A high flops, you're going to lose at least 300.

You'll flop a flush less than another percent.

About 11 per cent of the time you flop a flush draw. But you only make it one in three times and you'll pay to do it. You won't have much in the way of implied odds, because with pairs I'm not going to pay you off too often when I let you draw to the river.

The rest of the time you're going to fold. You can continue to chase your ace if you like. Some players will float the flop and bet any turn, hoping that they catch out a cbettor. This is rare though, but I will usually bet a bit more than the books tell you to when I cbet (and cbet a bit less often) so that my cbets are not so obvious that a bold LAGgy type can pick them off. I also tend to bet the same amount with a made hand. Not that they're paying attention, but it helps me not to get into a groove.

Add all those figures up and you're losing most of that 300 when you call. Now the guy had me covered by quite a bit, and probably felt he was gambling, trying to bust me. A lot of players, that's their attitude. Call with hands that can make huge hands and win huge pots. But I just don't have enough chips for that. I don't have a 100BB stack even, so your implied odds are fairly small. As I said, 8 to 1 at best. And to stack me I have to hit when you do. I just won't all that often. How often when you flop that flush do I hit my kicker? (I can't hit my ace obv.) My ability at probability is not sufficient to work it out, but the answer has to be "not often".

So the reason is that I'm not deep enough. He actually has an easy fold. He is dominated about half the time, and will miss the flop most of the rest of the time. For himself, the rewards are not great enough for the risk he takes. But isn't busting someone good for him?

Well yes, but not all that good. He will take my chips but he doesn't get my equity. He hands a portion of that to everyone else who didn't call, but watched him do it. In fact, he cannot even consider his call to pay 13/1 because it might do that in chips, but it doesn't in dollars. I guess recreational players are not so interested in the dollars though.

Of course, he is not even getting 13/1. This is not 54s or 66, hands with which you will make your hand and win a stack possibly or just fold the flop. This is A4s. When you're figuring what your chances are, you have to take into account that if you are dumb enough to call a 3x raise with ace rag, you are going to be dumb enough to stack off with it when we flop it ace high.