Sunday 26 October 2008

WTF to the max

Has my luck improved? Has it fuck!

Check this out. This is one of the funniest hands I've ever played:



PokerStars Game #21500138892: Tournament #116481725, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/10/26 0:54:10 ET
Table '116481725 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Bridget1968 (3435 in chips)
Seat 3: DD2280 (1080 in chips)
Seat 4: FR Vessant (3400 in chips)
Seat 5: Pro97 (1680 in chips)
Seat 6: PROJECT.KO (735 in chips)
Seat 7: achiever (3170 in chips)
achiever: posts small blind 15
Bridget1968: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Qc Ac]
DD2280: folds
FR Vessant: raises 60 to 90

Standard raise with this strong hand.

Pro97: folds
PROJECT.KO: calls 90

Absolutely terrible player. Called my valuebet with KT on an AA885 board with 54. No prizes in this game for three pair, bro.

achiever: folds
Bridget1968: calls 60

Even worse player. Has been involved in nearly every hand, making on the whole terrible decisions.

*** FLOP *** [4c Ah 5c]
Bridget1968: checks
FR Vessant: bets 210
PROJECT.KO: calls 210
Bridget1968: calls 210

WTF. Well, Bridget is seriously bad, and can have any ace here, and just about any draw. The other guy must have an ace imo. But if he does, he has to shove!

Either one could have a flush draw, and that would be good for me because obviously I'm drawing to the nuts.

*** TURN *** [4c Ah 5c] [7h]
Bridget1968: checks
FR Vessant: bets 480

I think I have to bet here. I'd prefer to be up against one player, but shorty isn't likely to win here.

PROJECT.KO: calls 435 and is all-in

Calling with his ace, I figure.

Bridget1968: raises 2655 to 3135 and is all-in

WTF? Well, she can have A7, I suppose, but she's played badly enough to put AJ/AT in her range. If she has me beat, I have odds to draw out. I'm not delighted to call, but I don't think I can fold here.

FR Vessant: calls 2620 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (35) returned to Bridget1968

*** RIVER *** [4c Ah 5c 7h] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bridget1968: shows [3s 6c] (a straight, Three to Seven)

What. The. Fuck. The poker gods are just teasing me now.

FR Vessant: shows [Qc Ac] (three of a kind, Aces)
Bridget1968 collected 5330 from side pot
PROJECT.KO: shows [7d Ad] (a full house, Aces full of Sevens)

So both these fucking clowns drew out on me on the turn!

I know, this is how we make money. Except I'm not. I'm losing it. Because this is happening to me every fucking tourney I play. I have cashed one in the last nine. Yesterday, I desperation shoved J8 into JJ, pushed AK into AA, and stacked off with AT on a T high board, get this, against TT. And those are just the hands I didn't get fucked over by the god of luck, but was only booted in the nuts by the god of cold decks.

Monday 20 October 2008

October results

A little bit early but my poker month is now over, so why not?

And what a frustrating month!

I played:
10 regular 10ers at 6.4%
122 12 turbos at 22.2%
5 regular 20ers at 30.9%
53 24 turbos at -19.1%
2 36 turbos at -17.5%

So overall I played 214 games at 5.2%.

Am I really not good enough for the 24s? Well, I think I am, but I ran truly poorly and that caused me to tilt and play badly some of the time too. 50ish games is not many, enough that a few unlucky breaks can make all the difference. So I will now have a month off, more or less, do some study and hopefully beat them decently in December.

Wednesday 15 October 2008

No, Zen, no.

The worst of running badly is that eventually you start playing badly.

This is really bad.


Full Tilt Poker Game #8495892704: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64661264), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:27:00 ET - 2008/10/15
Seat 2: dio555 x (6,290)
Seat 4: themer24881 (1,430)
Seat 6: therealjride (1,920)
Seat 9: basatagirl (3,860)
themer24881 posts the small blind of 100
therealjride posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jh Jc]
basatagirl raises to 700

I raise a bit more than normal because I want to discourage the bigstack from calling.

dio555 x raises to 2,000

Okay, so now I just fold. I can't play a pot with him, and he's tight enough to have me beat or racing here.

themer24881 folds
therealjride folds
basatagirl raises to 3,860, and is all in


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I knew as soon as I did it that it was a terrible mistake. I would never usually continue with this hand. I should just fold.

dio555 x calls 1,860
basatagirl shows [Jh Jc]
dio555 x shows [Kc Kh]

Fuckwit. I just wanted to win so badly that I fucked up. I'm just so gutted about today. I was nearly back to par but I have lost a couple of hundred today. it's not much money but it really hurts.

Why you should not limp KK

Here's why limping big pairs can be a super bad idea:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8494142078: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64645824), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:10:42 ET - 2008/10/15
Seat 1: donkey1313 (4,675)
Seat 3: iskah (2,330)
Seat 4: bobspamboy (3,340)
Seat 7: fishcop596 (475)
Seat 8: Vortex2099 (1,250)
Seat 9: basatagirl (1,430)
Vortex2099 posts the small blind of 50
basatagirl posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [3s 8c]
donkey1313 calls 100
iskah folds
bobspamboy folds
fishcop596 folds
Vortex2099 folds
basatagirl checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 3c 8h]
basatagirl bets 200

Bet near pot.

donkey1313 raises to 850

Oh man. Well, I'm hoping to see AT and not TT obv. Maybe a flush draw.

basatagirl raises to 1,330, and is all in

I'm obv. not folding on this board.

donkey1313 calls 480
basatagirl shows [3s 8c]
donkey1313 shows [Ks Kh]

wat


*** TURN *** [Th 3c 8h] [As]
*** RIVER *** [Th 3c 8h As] [8s]
basatagirl shows a full house, Eights full of Threes

Niiiiiice.

All in

Given that some of the games I've played, I've just been cold-decked, it makes sense that I have been about even when I've got it in, or slightly better. If you've been running a bit cold cardswise, you're going to be getting it in behind more than you'd like. This is part of luck, just as much as allin luck.

But check out my allin luck.




It should make me feel better to know that I probably don't suck as much as my stats suggest. I'd post my graph for the 12s, but I mislaid it. Anyway, it's actually +luck by a little bit. So it can happen!

I'll explain the graph in case you don't know what they mean, and show you why it should make me feel a bit better.


I am -$297 in luck. That means I have won $297 less than I could expect when the money went in. Basically, if $100 is at stake, and I get it in as a 70/30 favourite, I expect to win $70.

I have lost $180 at the 24s. So I'm 117 dollars behind where I should be. Over 38 games, that's 13% ROI.

I should be running at 13% if I got my expectation when all in.

sigh

You know, I'm sure I'll look back and laugh, but laughing is really hard at the moment. I lost the first four buyins this morning in really horrible ways. I lost on the first hand I played for the morning. A guy called off his stack with a flush draw and hit. I ran completely card dead in two tourneys and basically got eliminated on the first hand I played. Then I lost with 99 vs KJ and ran 88 into QQ. I came third in the next, when my 55 got sucked out on by A3 and the next hand I shoved A7 into AT. You couldn't fucking make this up.

This is what happened in my sixth tourney of the day. I mean, fucksake. How many can I lose like this?

Full Tilt Poker Game #8490887546: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64617910), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:10:24 ET - 2008/10/14
Seat 2: israelmoe (1,620)
Seat 3: francis20011 (1,285)
Seat 4: GRENLIK (1,000)
Seat 5: basatagirl (1,600)
Seat 6: Everyman (1,735)
Seat 7: mrpotto (3,085)
Seat 8: brewing (1,340)
Seat 9: WhiskeyBreath60 (1,835)
GRENLIK posts the small blind of 30
basatagirl posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kh Ks]
Everyman folds
mrpotto folds
brewing raises to 180
WhiskeyBreath60 has 15 seconds left to act
WhiskeyBreath60 folds
israelmoe calls 180
francis20011 folds
GRENLIK raises to 1,000, and is all in
basatagirl raises to 1,600, and is all in
brewing folds
israelmoe folds
basatagirl shows [Kh Ks]
GRENLIK shows [6h 6c]
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to basatagirl
*** FLOP *** [6d 7c 3s]
*** TURN *** [6d 7c 3s] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [6d 7c 3s 7s] [2d]
basatagirl shows two pair, Kings and Sevens
GRENLIK shows a full house, Sixes full of Sevens
GRENLIK wins the pot (2,360) with a full house, Sixes full of Sevens
basatagirl: sigh
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,360 | Rake 0
Board: [6d 7c 3s 7s 2d]
Seat 2: israelmoe folded before the Flop
Seat 3: francis20011 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: GRENLIK (small blind) showed [6h 6c] and won (2,360) with a full house, Sixes full of Sevens
Seat 5: basatagirl (big blind) showed [Kh Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Sevens
Seat 6: Everyman didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: mrpotto didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: brewing folded before the Flop
Seat 9: WhiskeyBreath60 didn't bet (folded)


***

Then this. This is just unbearable.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8491012725: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64616066), Table 1 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:18:41 ET - 2008/10/14
Seat 1: Senor Boston (1,540)
Seat 3: basatagirl (1,045)
Seat 4: CheckForValue (3,060)
Seat 6: GodzDice (3,345)
Seat 7: craigchin (4,510)
craigchin posts the small blind of 200
Senor Boston posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kc 9c]
basatagirl raises to 1,045, and is all in
CheckForValue folds
GodzDice folds
craigchin folds
Senor Boston folds
Uncalled bet of 645 returned to basatagirl
basatagirl mucks
basatagirl wins the pot (1,000)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,000 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Senor Boston (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: basatagirl collected (1,000), mucked
Seat 4: CheckForValue didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: GodzDice (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: craigchin (small blind) folded before the Flop

But hey, I came back a bit, so I had hope.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8491065113: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64616066), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:22:08 ET - 2008/10/14
Seat 1: Senor Boston (2,530)
Seat 3: basatagirl (2,010)
Seat 4: CheckForValue (2,460)
Seat 6: GodzDice (3,345)
Seat 7: craigchin (3,155)
Senor Boston posts the small blind of 250
basatagirl posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [9d 6c]
CheckForValue folds
GodzDice folds
craigchin has 15 seconds left to act
craigchin folds
Senor Boston calls 250
basatagirl checks

It's weird that he limps, but I don't think I have fold equity.

*** FLOP *** [9s Ts 4c]
Senor Boston bets 2,030, and is all in

I have to call. He would not shove with a hand that beat mine.

basatagirl calls 1,510, and is all in
Senor Boston shows [Qs 7s]

I'm right, and I'm a favourite to win.

basatagirl shows [9d 6c]
Uncalled bet of 520 returned to Senor Boston
*** TURN *** [9s Ts 4c] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [9s Ts 4c 5d] [5s]

I am -20% at the 24s. I just don't know what I could be doing that I'm not doing. I've played 38 games and lost 180 dollars. First thing this morning, I was a win away from getting my head above water. I've lost 120 dollars to suckout after suckout after suckout.

I know this ends. I know that I will run good again. KK can't be beaten by 66 every time. But man, I need that good to start now, because I can't stand this at the moment. It's just souldestroying.

And the worst thing is, this is only happening to me at the 24s. I was running bad at the 12s earlier, but that evened out, and now I'm going well in them. But in 24 after 24, I'm getting soulcrushed.

Monday 13 October 2008

Up. And down obv.

I am now losing at the 24s. It really sucks when every time you get your money in with Ax, and villain calls with Ax with a smaller x, and he hits his kicker.

I'd really liked to have started well in them. It's good to begin with a heater, because you can then play confidently, without worrying about future losses. But so far, it's a grim story of suckout after suckout.

Yeah, I know, it's good to get it in ahead, but believe me, it's better to stay ahead.

It doesn't help that no one on Tilt has heard of table selection, so it's tough to find tables that aren't packed with sharks.

omfgwtfwtfwtf

Why am I yelling at my screen?

This is my second 36.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8467684514: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64431792), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:30:20 ET - 2008/10/13
Seat 2: rivercity79 (3,390)
Seat 8: basatagirl (8,015)

Note my huge stack.

Seat 9: Bozy_Man1986 (2,095)
Bozy_Man1986 posts the small blind of 100
rivercity79 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [9c Ks]
basatagirl raises to 500
Bozy_Man1986 folds
rivercity79 calls 300

This guy is a huge fish and can have absolutely anything.

*** FLOP *** [4d Qs Kd]
rivercity79 bets 2,890, and is all in

Easy call.

basatagirl calls 2,890
rivercity79 shows [Jc Ts]

See? Absolutely shit.

basatagirl shows [9c Ks]
*** TURN *** [4d Qs Kd] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [4d Qs Kd 3h] [Ad]


Aaaargh.

But anyway, I still have a decent stack.
Full Tilt Poker Game #8467693281: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64431792), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:31:28 ET - 2008/10/13
Seat 2: rivercity79 (7,240)
Seat 8: basatagirl (4,625)
Seat 9: Bozy_Man1986 (1,635)

Note how short this guy is. I don't want to get involved in a big pot.

rivercity79 posts the small blind of 120
basatagirl posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [2s Th]
Bozy_Man1986 folds
rivercity79 calls 120
basatagirl checks
*** FLOP *** [2c Js Ts]

Well, I'm going to have to play a big pot now.

rivercity79 checks
basatagirl bets 600
rivercity79 raises to 1,200
basatagirl raises to 4,385, and is all in

No problems getting it in here. He can have absolutely anything. To be behind here would be a huge cooler. I expect to see Jx and to have to fade his outs for his kicker.

rivercity79 calls 3,185
basatagirl shows [2s Th]
rivercity79 shows [Kd Kh]

His play is of course awful.

He has five outs: three Js and the remaining kings. He'll have eight on the river if he doesn't suck out on the turn.

I'm a huge favourite obviously. 71/29 to be precise.

*** TURN *** [2c Js Ts] [Jc]

WTF. I mean, fucksake, I would have folded if he had raised pre, but I can't fold on the flop.

I had fucking 8K chips! I am 13 to 1 for that shit to happen to me. You know, I'd rather it had happened at the 14th time of asking, rather than the first.

Friday 10 October 2008

wtf 7

Well okay, one more:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8424074005: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64102088), Table 1 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:21:33 ET - 2008/10/10
Seat 1: basatagirl (900)
Seat 3: wissp (705)
Seat 6: 4-Stack (1,305)
Seat 7: Wahish (2,400)
Seat 8: blumjk (4,130)
Seat 9: BARNWOOD1 (4,060)
wissp posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kd 9h]
4-Stack folds
Wahish folds
blumjk folds
BARNWOOD1 folds
basatagirl raises to 900, and is all in
wissp calls 545, and is all in
basatagirl shows [Kd 9h]
wissp shows [Kh 5h]

WTF?

But hey! I have him dominated. He only has three outs, right?

Uncalled bet of 195 returned to basatagirl
*** FLOP *** [6d Qs 4c]
basatagirl: gamble it up

That's right. Fucking retard. If he ever wonders why he's not making money, there it is. Just fold and push ATC when you get the chance. STTs are not about trying to suck out on people; they're about trying to make people fold.

Now he's 7 to 1 to win.

*** TURN *** [6d Qs 4c] [7s]

OMG. You know what's coming though. Another runner runner straight.

*** RIVER *** [6d Qs 4c 7s] [8c]

Yep. So I bust next hand. Another buyin gone to three outs.

Then at my other table a winning player calls my 87 shove for 10BB, I cover him. He has JTs. I have not shown down bad cards at any point.

He cannot justify his call. He is just gambling. Even if he thinks I'm shoving wide, that's an easy fold. I have to be shoving more than 70% for JTs to be a call, and I don't shove that wide against anyone I think is decent because I know they'll call a bit wider than the fish. He doesn't know me and doesn't know that I'll shove wide at all. Most players don't. It's also a fold for me if I know he's calling that wide, but this is a winning player. I expect him to be folding J high.

Actually, I should have known he was retarded. He joined a table that already had three strong winning players and another couple of breakeven ones. That's dumb for a player who is only playing a handful of tables.

wtf 6

I can't even win when 11/2 ahead HU.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8423618942: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:44:47 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (1,930)
Seat 5: basatagirl (11,570)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [3s 5d]
basatagirl folds

I should shove here, but I'm so gunshy.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8423620451: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:44:54 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (2,230)
Seat 5: basatagirl (11,270)
p p polly posts the small blind of 300
basatagirl posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [As Qc]
p p polly raises to 2,230, and is all in
basatagirl calls 1,630

Easy call obv.

p p polly shows [3d 3h]
basatagirl shows [As Qc]
*** FLOP *** [3c Kd 5h]

That's nice.



Full Tilt Poker Game #8423625160: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:45:16 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (4,460)
Seat 5: basatagirl (9,040)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Tc 3d]
basatagirl folds

I think this is close. She's calling tightly though so maybe a shove.


Full Tilt Poker Game #8423626436: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:45:22 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (4,760)
Seat 5: basatagirl (8,740)
p p polly posts the small blind of 300
basatagirl posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Qc Js]
p p polly folds
Uncalled bet of 300 returned to basatagirl

Meh.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8423628694: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:45:32 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (4,460)
Seat 5: basatagirl (9,040)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ac Jh]
basatagirl raises to 9,040, and is all in
p p polly folds

So I'm still miles ahead.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8423631426: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:45:45 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (3,860)
Seat 5: basatagirl (9,640)
p p polly posts the small blind of 300
basatagirl posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kd 6s]
p p polly folds
Uncalled bet of 300 returned to basatagirl


Full Tilt Poker Game #8423632733: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:45:52 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (3,560)
Seat 5: basatagirl (9,940)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jc 6h]
basatagirl raises to 9,940, and is all in

Easy shove. She's calling tight so I should shove ATC probably.


p p polly calls 2,960, and is all in
basatagirl shows [Jc 6h]
p p polly shows [Qd Qs]

Fucking typical.




Full Tilt Poker Game #8423637025: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:46:11 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (7,120)
Seat 5: basatagirl (6,380)
p p polly posts the small blind of 300
basatagirl posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [5s 2s]
p p polly folds
Uncalled bet of 300 returned to basatagirl


Full Tilt Poker Game #8423638670: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:46:19 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (6,820)
Seat 5: basatagirl (6,680)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [2h 8s]
basatagirl folds

Have to fold this terrible hand because I have a lot less FE now that I've shown a poor hand when shoving.



Full Tilt Poker Game #8423639983: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:46:25 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (7,120)
Seat 5: basatagirl (6,380)
p p polly posts the small blind of 300
basatagirl posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [5d 6c]
p p polly folds
Uncalled bet of 300 returned to basatagirl
basatagirl mucks



Full Tilt Poker Game #8423641451: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64096682), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:46:32 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: p p polly (6,820)
Seat 5: basatagirl (6,680)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 300
p p polly posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ah Qs]
basatagirl raises to 6,680, and is all in
p p polly has 15 seconds left to act
p p polly calls 6,080
basatagirl shows [Ah Qs]
p p polly shows [9h Th]

WTF.


*** FLOP *** [6c 9s 7c]

WTF.

This makes the difference, you know. Just before this, I shoved into a guy who had less than 10BB with JT. He had AK and I doubled him. He made a big fuss in the chat about what a bad play I had made, which made me laugh. I said, the only good thing you've done this game is get dealt a good hand. Anyway, I made the money, but shoved AJ and got called by KQ, which inevitably drew out on me.

So make my two big aces hold up and I'm maybe 30 bucks richer. That would make me decently ahead for the day. So these things matter. It's not the huge suckouts so much, although they hurt; nor is it always running your desperate shoves into much bigger hands; it's constantly losing when you're ahead in key hands.

Unbelievably--well, it's unbelievable to me--I am actually ahead in the 12s today, and only behind for the day because in a soft 24 a total fish snapped off my 9BB shove with AJ with a QT that obviously hit a Q on the flop.

The reason I'm feeling down is not the souldestroying beats, but that I don't feel I'm playing well, and don't feel I'm really crushing the game. My results suggest I am, but I think I ran hot and now I'm about where I'm at. Which is depressing. I know it sounds very whinesome to complain when you're winning, but I've been learning poker for quite a long time, and I want to win at a much higher level.

Well okay, it's not desperate. Downswings are not inevitable. I could go on a great heater for the rest of the month and start thinking I'm a winner again. Worst case, I limp along to 500ish games at the 12s and can take stock. For the few people who are reading this, I promise to post something more upbeat in the upcoming.

wtf 5

When you're down, you're down. I'm not going to post any more bad beats. They're just so depressing. But man, can't the poker gods punish these fucking idiots ONCE IN A WHILE?

Full Tilt Poker Game #8422676023: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64092790), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:32:41 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: nejaimes (1,485)
Seat 2: shides (1,875)
Seat 3: RichyRich_OH (1,750)
Seat 4: basatagirl (1,455)
Seat 5: jmunsworth (1,450)
Seat 6: BigDave1078 (1,160)
Seat 7: caligulas (1,460)
Seat 8: suckmedeck (1,470)
Seat 9: sunshine202 (1,395)
caligulas posts the small blind of 25
suckmedeck posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Qd Qh]
sunshine202 folds
nejaimes folds
shides calls 50
RichyRich_OH calls 50
basatagirl raises to 275

Standard sort of raise.

jmunsworth has 15 seconds left to act
jmunsworth folds
BigDave1078 folds
caligulas folds
suckmedeck folds
shides folds
RichyRich_OH has 15 seconds left to act
RichyRich_OH calls 225

Now I'll tell you, he has 55. This is an atrocious call. He won't hit a set often enough to make this good, and he can't be confident enough of his hand to call a cbet.

*** FLOP *** [6s Ts 2s]
RichyRich_OH has 15 seconds left to act
RichyRich_OH checks
basatagirl bets 1,180, and is all in

Okay, the all spades flop is superbad, so I shove to, I hope, make single-card flush draws fold.

RichyRich_OH calls 1,180
basatagirl shows [Qd Qh]
RichyRich_OH shows [5s 5c]

Fat fucking chance of that. Having called preflop getting less than 7 to 1 to stack me if he hits a set, this fuckwit is not folding getting the exactly right odds to hit if I do not hold a spade.

He can't even spell ICM, let alone realise that he's losing money even if he hits.


*** TURN *** [6s Ts 2s] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [6s Ts 2s 2h] [3s]

And why should he? I'm not even going to ask why the poker gods couldn't, just for once, have let me have the Qs, so that he was left drawing nearly dead. Not that he wouldn't then have rivered a 5.

wtf 4

I think this is the most frustrating kind of hand. This is only my second 24. I played it because everyone but Deezel50, who is a strong player AFAIK, is a losing player. I think the hand illustrates a couple of principles that are important.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8420430335: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64073283), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:41:51 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 2: jdinbeverly (2,280)
Seat 3: Deezel50 (1,550)
Seat 5: basatagirl (1,120)
Seat 6: addicted 2 air (1,905)
Seat 7: thegreatman (3,330)
Seat 8: Straight Right (1,430)
Seat 9: jameg1011 (1,885)
Deezel50 posts the small blind of 60
basatagirl posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kd Jd]

I'm hoping to have it limped round, because I can't really call a raise with this hand, and I don't want to shove over because I'll have zero FE with my stack.

addicted 2 air calls 120
thegreatman folds
Straight Right folds
jameg1011 calls 120
jdinbeverly folds
Deezel50 calls 60
basatagirl checks

I could shove over here, but these players are awful and with this big pot, could easily snap me off.

*** FLOP *** [Ts Kc 3h]
Deezel50 checks
basatagirl checks

I prefer not to lead into a crowd here. My hand is very likely good but I'm liable to be called a lot. If there's heavy action, I can lay it down though. If someone bets, I can CRAI and if they're shitting, I at least get their bet.

addicted 2 air checks
jameg1011 bets 120

He almost certainly does not have a king better than mine. If he did, he would not be minbetting!

Minbets very rarely mean a big hand. Sometimes a tard will milk you with a monster, but I think you have to pay them off, because they're quite rare.

Deezel50 folds
basatagirl raises to 1,000, and is all in

So I shove over.

addicted 2 air has 15 seconds left to act
addicted 2 air calls 1,000

I know when he calls that he doesn't have me beat. He would have bet if he did.


jameg1011 folds
basatagirl shows [Kd Jd]
addicted 2 air shows [Ks 6h]

I knew it. So I'm miles ahead. He needs a 6 or perfect runners to split the pot.

*** TURN *** [Ts Kc 3h] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Ts Kc 3h Tc] [Qc]

Like that.

What makes this galling is the following hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8420512995: $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) (64073283), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:48:19 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 5: basatagirl (1,860)
Seat 6: addicted 2 air (5,095)
Seat 7: thegreatman (1,695)
Seat 9: jameg1011 (4,850)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 100
addicted 2 air posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jd Ah]

I have decent equity and I know he'll call wide. So I don't want to shove just anything. But I can't pass with AJ. It's a push unless he calls with 92%. Which he won't, crazy as he is.

thegreatman: folded AJ
thegreatman folds
jameg1011 folds
basatagirl raises to 1,860, and is all in
addicted 2 air calls 1,660
basatagirl shows [Jd Ah]
addicted 2 air shows [Td Qh]

Terrible, obviously, but he's not losing thousands of dollars for no reason.


*** FLOP *** [4d 9s Qs]

Well, that sucks. That's how my past week has been. I knew I would bust. I knew that if I put it in with that AJ, he would call with some shit and would outflop me. But I also knew that this was a shove. What can you do?

And yes I know, it's just tilt that makes you think you're doomed to lose. But when it happens to you a ton, you start thinking you are not going to be permitted to win one. That's a seriously bad attitude, but wtf, I didn't win it, did I?

Thursday 9 October 2008

wtf 3

I genuinely feel like crying. These aren't just 70/30s. These are people laying really incredible beats on me. Not just one or two. At least a dozen in the past two dozen games. In literally half my games, I'm getting outdrawn by guys hitting no more than four outs, flopping straights or flushes against my big hands...


Full Tilt Poker Game #8410250300: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63995674), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:25:14 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: greenpolo888 (2,660)
Seat 2: rajangoog (1,685)
Seat 4: Brewmaster8 (2,345)
Seat 6: basatagirl (1,410)
Seat 7: ak800 (1,270)
Seat 8: TestJunkie (1,350)
Seat 9: Sweetcheet (2,780)
ak800 posts the small blind of 40
TestJunkie posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Td As]
Sweetcheet folds
greenpolo888 folds
rajangoog folds
Brewmaster8 folds
basatagirl has 15 seconds left to act
basatagirl raises to 200

Standard raise. I expect both to fold quite often.

ak800 folds
TestJunkie calls 120

He should fold. He has KJs. Calling that with 11BB against a player he knows is tight is no good. Even though my range widens on the button, he should still fold. If he thinks he's ahead of me, he needs to shove. But I'm not that wide. I don't have a big stack or anything, and I'm not going to be raising many hands KJs beats. On many flops, I'll cbet and he's going to have to fold. He can't stop and go often because I'll call a lot of the time.

*** FLOP *** [Qs 3c Ks]
TestJunkie checks
basatagirl checks

Why don't I cbet here?

1/ His range has a lot of Ks and Qs and a lot of pairs. He won't fold any of that. Some he'll shove and I'll have to fold my four outs.
2/ The flush draws won't fold either.
3/ The rest of his range is hands that have somewhat hit this: he might have JT/J9 and may call or even shove with them.

*** TURN *** [Qs 3c Ks] [Jh]

Nice! I turn my straight.

TestJunkie bets 1,150, and is all in
basatagirl calls 1,150

Easy call of course.

TestJunkie shows [Jc Kc]
basatagirl shows [Td As]

So he has four outs. I am a 10.5 to 1 favourite. I have to fade two Js and...

*** RIVER *** [Qs 3c Ks Jh] [Kd]

...two Ks.

WTF.

Idiot

Okay. Now i have to quit for the day because I'm tilting. I just can't stand being drawn out on all the time in such mad ways.


Full Tilt Poker Game #8410097511: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63994435), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:13:23 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: ScoopTheLoop (1,335)
Seat 3: richsun33 (3,030)
Seat 4: vegasvas (2,340)
Seat 5: ajkennedy (2,430)
Seat 7: gio1818 (1,365)
Seat 8: basatagirl (1,510)
Seat 9: brotran (1,490)
richsun33 posts the small blind of 40
vegasvas posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Tc Th]
ajkennedy folds
gio1818 folds
basatagirl raises to 200

Standard raise.

brotran folds
ScoopTheLoop folds
richsun33 folds
vegasvas calls 120

He's not all that fishy.


*** FLOP *** [7h Jd 3h]

Decent flop. Not many Js in his range.

vegasvas checks
basatagirl bets 320

I bet to protect my hand and make Ax/Kx/Qx and flush draws fold.

vegasvas raises to 2,140, and is all in

I put him on the flush draw, trying to push me off a whiffed AK. Or something like 99/88, which could easily think it's ahead here. I mean, obv. he has a J a lot here, but I'm on tilt and I don't want to have been outflopped yet again. A game earlier I lost most of my stack when my allin TT was outflopped by KJ.


basatagirl calls 990, and is all in
vegasvas shows [Kh Jh]

I am an idiot. Where's my discipline? I give them bluffs in this spot. I could have just checked behind if I didn't want to be pushed off it.

There was also this:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8410053881: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63992924), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:09:53 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: JPs Mannequinnn (1,490)
Seat 2: tstew1970 (2,400)
Seat 3: UD-Engineer (1,290)
Seat 4: moosek8 (2,650)
Seat 6: Kasey07 (2,485)
Seat 7: basatagirl (1,180)
Seat 8: zagstar (2,005)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 100
zagstar posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ks Qc]
JPs Mannequinnn folds
tstew1970 folds
UD-Engineer folds
moosek8 folds
Kasey07 raises to 700

He's been quite loose but hasn't raised all that much. So easy fold for me.

basatagirl raises to 1,180, and is all in

NO. Easy fold, you clown!

zagstar folds
Kasey07 calls 480
basatagirl shows [Ks Qc]
Kasey07 shows [Ah Tc]

Sigh.

wtf 2

I've had it with this. I mean wtf. First hand of a tourney.

[63990412, Full Tilt Poker Game #8409376277: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63990412), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:19:05 ET - 2008/10/08
Seat 1: RyuHoshi87 (1,500)
Seat 2: Slowplayin85 (1,500)
Seat 3: MaximusTN (1,500)
Seat 4: jAN mASKELL (1,500)
Seat 5: CatfishBrown (1,500)
Seat 6: basatagirl (1,500)
Seat 7: melonhedd (1,500)
Seat 8: call in 33 (1,500)
Seat 9: gustony23 (1,500)
RyuHoshi87 posts the small blind of 15
Slowplayin85 posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kh Ks]
CatfishBrown is feeling angry
MaximusTN raises to 90
jAN mASKELL folds
CatfishBrown calls 90
basatagirl raises to 405
melonhedd folds
call in 33 folds
gustony23 calls 405
RyuHoshi87 folds
Slowplayin85 calls 375
MaximusTN calls 315
CatfishBrown folds
*** FLOP *** [8h 3d 3h]
Slowplayin85 checks
MaximusTN checks
basatagirl bets 1,095, and is all in
gustony23 folds
Slowplayin85 folds
MaximusTN calls 1,095, and is all in
basatagirl shows [Kh Ks]
MaximusTN shows [7d 7c]


I am an 11/1 favourite. 11 to fucking one!


*** TURN *** [8h 3d 3h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [8h 3d 3h 4s] [7s]

WTF.

Literally two seconds earlier, at t50, a winning player limped UTG. I raised to 200 with QQ.

The flop came 532, I bet, he raised, I shoved.

He has A4s. I mean, wtf. He makes a terrible, shocking bad call, and hits perfect. When this happens occasionally, it's something you can live with. But when it's nearly every tourney, god it hurts.

Give and ye shall receive

Still, it's nice to do this:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8407300683: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63971838), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:50:07 ET - 2008/10/08
Seat 1: johnyblue (1,105)
Seat 3: fuzzywuzzy256 (2,510)
Seat 5: basatagirl (1,165)
Seat 6: FREZA (3,370)
Seat 7: kosamm (1,975)
Seat 9: jam450 (3,375)
FREZA posts the small blind of 100
kosamm posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [7s 3d]
jam450 folds
johnyblue folds
fuzzywuzzy256 folds
basatagirl raises to 1,165, and is all in


I need to check this is Wiz, but I think that the blinds are calling so tight that I can push any two here. I have less than 6BB and the gain of 1.5BB would be pretty good for me.


***

So I checked it in Wiz. I think these guys both get it in with about 11%. That's an ATC shove for me and it's not particularly close. The BB may even have been tighter.

FREZA folds
kosamm calls 965
basatagirl shows [7s 3d]
kosamm shows [Ad Kd]

Oh dear.

*** FLOP *** [7c 4s 9c]

Yay!

*** TURN *** [7c 4s 9c] [Ks]

Boo!

*** RIVER *** [7c 4s 9c Ks] [3c]

YAY!

wtf

This is getting ridiculous.

When people measure allin EV, they are only measuring how they do vs their hot and cold equity. What they don't measure is this sort of thing. But it's crazy how often this happens to me:


Full Tilt Poker Game #8407131709: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63971950), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:37:58 ET - 2008/10/08
Seat 1: Rook26 (1,410)
Seat 2: kepo13 (1,655)
Seat 3: BicRedBilly (1,670)
Seat 4: basatagirl (1,835)
Seat 5: ronthebartender (1,155)
Seat 6: kosamm (1,350)
Seat 7: SNAKE0500 (2,640)
Seat 8: miggitymack (710)
Seat 9: SPIKEARINI (1,075)
SNAKE0500 posts the small blind of 30
miggitymack posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ah Kc]
SNAKE0500: wow, so knew you had ace something!
SPIKEARINI folds
Rook26 folds
kepo13 calls 60
BicRedBilly folds
basatagirl has 15 seconds left to act
basatagirl raises to 270

Decent raise with AK.

ronthebartender has 15 seconds left to act
ronthebartender calls 270
kosamm folds
SNAKE0500 folds
miggitymack folds
kepo13 has 15 seconds left to act
kepo13 calls 210

Not so happy to be called in two places.


*** FLOP *** [Td Kd Tc]

But that's a good flop. It's very very unlikely that someone has a T because
there are only two left in play. I have TPTK, so with luck, someone has a K.

kepo13 checks
basatagirl bets 690
ronthebartender folds
kepo13 raises to 1,380
basatagirl calls 690

I'm not worried about that. I'm obviously stacking off against a fish with TPTK.

*** TURN *** [Td Kd Tc] [3h]
kepo13 bets 5, and is all in
basatagirl calls 5
kepo13 shows [Qd Th]

WTF.

This is my first game of the day. I know you have ups and downs in poker, but this is excruciating. I have AK and hit the fucking flop! That only happens 1 in 3 times. You want to win some of those times, if possible.

Wednesday 8 October 2008

mwa

Another bubble. The fish in the small blind has had good hand after good hand. At no point has he pwned the bubble though, even when he had a bigger stack. He is the only guy who can knock me out.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8398494280: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63904323), Table 1 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 5:45:20 ET - 2008/10/08
Seat 4: basatagirl (4,195)
Seat 5: michaelroberts7 (4,740)
Seat 6: poker_daddy88 (1,355), is sitting out
Seat 8: Zoltan SZ (3,210)
michaelroberts7 posts the small blind of 200
poker_daddy88 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Th Tc]
Zoltan SZ folds
basatagirl raises to 4,195, and is all in

So I push. I have to. You can't fold TT in this spot.

michaelroberts7 raises to 4,740, and is all in
poker_daddy88 folds
michaelroberts7 shows [Qs Qh]

Fuck.


basatagirl shows [Th Tc]
Uncalled bet of 545 returned to michaelroberts7
*** FLOP *** [8c Qd 4d]

Don't get me started.

Here's the worst of it. As you can see from the HH, the BB was sitting out. I think he would have come back, but obv. he's not likely to call this one.

So I couldn't get through even one player.

Tuesday 7 October 2008

Fuck it--plus fucked update

I am thinking I will have to give up my dream. I am not good enough and I don't seem to be getting any better. I lost a ton tonight. I haven't put it into TM but I think I will have lost everything I won this month. I was so excited because I had run my roll to within 30 bucks of moving up to the 24s, but I lost back 12 buyins.

I know there will be ups and downs, but I feel like I'm just lucky when I win, and bad when I lose, and I can't shake the feeling.

Okay, boots, go to town. It's tragic when people dare to want something, isn't it? It makes them pitiful. I know.

***

So what happened? Well, I played ten games earlier today and ran pretty badly. I mean, you can feel quite good about things when you run into two flopped flushes and still end up ahead.

Tonight I played 13 games. It actually feels like more, so I may have dropped one somewhere. Maybe I played 7 and 6 tables and not 8 and 6 as I thought?

I know 13 games is not much, but I didn't feel good at all. I felt like I was struggling the whole time.

So the first game I finished 2nd. I had a lead heads up, but the other guy outran my TT with AQ. Then he beat my 9 high with his 7 high. So meh.

2. A guy raised to 3x at t300. I had AQ in the BB and 2.1K behind and shoved over. He called and showed 66. There's just nothing to say about his play. He should push or fold. If he'd pushed, it would have been the same result. But he probably should fold. I'd need to look at it in Wiz. Raising to 3x is awful though. So his hand held up, just a standard beat. IGH 6th.

3. I have 97 in the BB at t120. One guy limps. Now, this hand is fucking incredible, and I have to say, it really sucks that the poker ghods don't punish these retards for this kind of shit. The flop comes Q97 and I lead out decently. He calls. Turn is another 7. I bet just about the pot and he calls again. I'm putting him on a queen of some sort. Retards love to limp QJ/QT, so I'm not worried that he calls. The river is a blank, I shove and he snapcalls. He has QQ. Sigh. A J97 flop, I double up, and he gets what he deserves. But that's a terrible cooler. IGH 5th.

4. I have AK and make a slightly bigger than standard raise. This is because Full Tilt Shortcuts is set up to make raises that are hard to adjust in a hurry. Anyway, I don't mind. One guy calls. The flop comes KQx and I bet enough to get it in on the turn. Which I regret because yes, this tard called an EP raise from the tightest player at the table with KQ and flopped perfect. I don't think you can get away from my hand, and I'll double up a ton of the time there. Not this time though. IGH 8th.

5. The next game I win. The other guy pretty much handed it to me by playing super weakly HU. The game was a textbook example of why you should be super aggro heads up.

6. At t240, having mostly been card dead, I shove UTG with AJ. I have about 5.5BB. I think folding would be bad but I don't like pushing into a crowd. I liked it more when the SB called with K8. Even though he had 3.5K, his call is absolutely fucking atrocious. They do that quite a bit though, just randomly decide that hands that are never going to be ahead of your range are just the shit. Well, I guess he was right. He flopped a K and IGH 6th.

7. So the next tourney, I'm not sure. The guy who shoved was a regular on the button. He had been reasonably aggro but not actually out of line. I had A7. I felt that I could well be ahead of his range. He showed 66 and I didn't improve. I had a few chips left and chipped back up to 1K. I shoved A6 and got called by 55 and A2. 55 was very short, so even though I didn't improve again, that didn't finish me off. But I only had a bit less than 3BB so I got it in with Q7 next hand. Meh.

8. The next tourney I had KJ in the CO and made a very loose push. I felt the guys behind me were tight enough to make it good. So that was a bad read because one guy called off his stack with KTs. The other had AQ, which was a bit more reasonable, and his hand held up. IGH 6th.

9. The next tourney I got into the money. I'm very aggressive in the money, maybe too much so. Definitely something I need to work on. But shoving ATC into tight players when you have 8ish BB at t400 and they have 6ish is good imo. Well, good so long as they don't call with Q2 when you have T5. I couldn't believe that. It's such a bad call. He had no idea at all that I was pushing that wide and Q2 doesn't even beat a random hand. I'd have folded in his shoes, even if I knew I was pushing ATC. So that hurt. I really take it amiss when people just gamble. I hate gambling and try to avoid doing it. Anyway, I couldn't do anything from that point on, so I got 3rd. Which sucked, because I had actually played well, much better than the tard who called my shove, who had been furnished with great cards more than once when someone else pushed.

10. So I have 2.3K at t300 and some guy pushes UTG with 2.8K. He's a tight player, so his range is not that wide, but I have QQ. I am just never folding, even though I have been having a streak of losing big allins with big hands when I have decent equity. I am good against his range, I think, and I accept that I'll lose sometimes against AJ, but I'll crush JJ-99. Not so much KK though, which is what he had. Yet again the bitches let me down and IGH 5th.

11. What do minraises mean? They sometimes mean "I have a monster and want action" and more often mean "I have a shit hand and want to steal the blinds cheaply". This time, when I shoved over a minraise at t240 with TT, I found out that it meant monster. I think you have to get it in with 6BB and TT though, even though it's going to hurt to run into AA.

12. So some guy with a huge raising range 3xs it. I cover him decently and shove over with KQs. I figure I will crush his range and I'm right. He calls with 87s. This is just gambling. I mean, he might convince himself that his cards are "live" but he's crushed by any reasonable range I'm shoving there. Yeah, but to be crushed you have to not suck out to a flush. So I have 700 chips left and need a miracle. No miracles today though. I stick it in with 54 and the same fish calls with A2. Do I get the same touch of luck he got? Do I fuck! I'm not fond of flushes today.

13. Finally, I sneak into the money and into second by playing cagily and possibly quite well, but when I get it in with 99 vs QJ, you just feel the Q coming. Which it does.

So that was that. It doesn't seem all that unreasonable when you see my bustout hands. Just looks like I wasn't all that lucky. But I didn't play well in the rest of the game. I haven't looked in Wiz but I'm sure I missed shoves, and I put in too much money with bad holdings a few times iirc.

I was feeling good the other day, but the luck was definitely going my way. Not so much that I was winning confrontations (I wasn't really) but I was getting decent cards just when needed. I have been feeling badly out of sorts too. On Stars, I can't seem to play HORSE at all, and the 8 games have been a tragedy for me, and I ought to do okay in them.

You know, you'll laugh if you play poker because I only lost 20 bucks today (although Tourney Manager has certainly misplaced a couple I think, because I'm a bit more than that down from what I had yesterday), and I'm still ahead for the month. It's not the results though. It's how it feels. Maybe better tomorrow, hey? At least I have played more this month. I played 66 games last month and have played the same already this month. And I suppose I won't give in. I'll probably get 20 in tomorrow. These are such small numbers, I know, and I know that luck is everything in the short term. But knowing and feeling are two different things, right?

Flushing it away

So I'm playing okay but I'm not catching too many breaks. This won't be a bad beat post, but it does show the ups and downs:

Tilt Poker Game #8383012222: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:06:42 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,970)
Seat 5: FREZA (1,070)
Seat 6: basatagirl (1,200)
Seat 8: moronello (8,260)
FREZA posts the small blind of 100
basatagirl posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ks Jd]
moronello folds
bolthier folds
FREZA has 15 seconds left to act
FREZA raises to 1,070, and is all in
basatagirl calls 870

I have to call. He's probably shoving very wide, and I have a decent hand.

FREZA shows [7d 2h]

So my call was good.

basatagirl shows [Ks Jd]
*** FLOP *** [2s 8h 6s]

That sucks.

*** TURN *** [2s 8h 6s] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8h 6s 4c] [2d]

Oh well. It goes that way sometimes.

So I have 130 chips left.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8383015976: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:09 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,970)
Seat 5: FREZA (2,140)
Seat 6: basatagirl (130)
Seat 8: moronello (8,260)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 100
moronello posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [6d 5d]
basatagirl: sigh
bolthier folds
FREZA folds
basatagirl calls 30, and is all in

Hooray!

basatagirl shows [6d 5d]
moronello shows [3s 8d]
Uncalled bet of 70 returned to moronello
*** FLOP *** [7d 7c 3h]

Oh dear.

*** TURN *** [7d 7c 3h] [6h]

Yay!



Full Tilt Poker Game #8383019157: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:32 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,970)
Seat 5: FREZA (2,140)
Seat 6: basatagirl (260)
Seat 8: moronello (8,130)
moronello posts the small blind of 100
bolthier posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jc 4c]
FREZA folds
basatagirl raises to 260, and is all in

Not the best of hands but I decided to shove and hope for the best.

moronello calls 160

This is actually okay for me. Bigger pot the times I suck out.
bolthier folds

This is plain terrible. He has to call 60 more to win 720. Awful awful fold. Good for me though.

basatagirl shows [Jc 4c]
moronello shows [As 9h]
*** FLOP *** [9d Td Qh]
*** TURN *** [9d Td Qh] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [9d Td Qh Qc] [Kh]

Yay!

Full Tilt Poker Game #8383022793: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:58 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,770)
Seat 5: FREZA (2,140)
Seat 6: basatagirl (720)
Seat 8: moronello (7,870)
bolthier posts the small blind of 100
FREZA posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kd 7c]
basatagirl raises to 720, and is all in

Might as well. K high and less than 4BB.


moronello folds
bolthier folds
FREZA folds

Next hand I have to fold 64 in the BB to a shove.


Full Tilt Poker Game #8383026488: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:08:25 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,970)
Seat 5: FREZA (1,840)
Seat 6: basatagirl (820)
Seat 8: moronello (7,870)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 120
moronello posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [7h 7s]
bolthier folds
FREZA raises to 1,840, and is all in
basatagirl calls 700, and is all in

Okay, he won't be shoving as wide here, but I'm not going to fold a hand this strong.

moronello folds
FREZA shows [As Ts]

Meh. It's very close to even money.

basatagirl shows [7h 7s]
Uncalled bet of 1,020 returned to FREZA
*** FLOP *** [4c Kh 6c]
*** TURN *** [4c Kh 6c] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [4c Kh 6c Jc] [8h]

MHIG so now I have a decent stack.


Next hand I fold JT on the button. It's pretty close, I think, and if I had another 200 chips, I might shove.


Full Tilt Poker Game #8383031035: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785354), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:08:58 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 4: bolthier (2,730)
Seat 5: FREZA (1,020)
Seat 6: basatagirl (1,880)
Seat 8: moronello (7,870)
bolthier posts the small blind of 120
FREZA posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ad Kc]

Now I would have been willing to just fold the next few hands and sneak into third, but this hand is too strong to fold.

basatagirl raises to 1,880, and is all in

moronello folds
bolthier calls 1,760

He must have a superstrong hand. Shorty is pretty short and I have to have something decent to shove into both bigger stacks now I have a decent stack.

FREZA folds
basatagirl shows [Ad Kc]
bolthier shows [8c Ac]

WTF. That's an awful awful call, even if he thinks I'm a fair bit wider than I am.

What makes it awful is not so much that he badly misreads my range, or badly overvalues his hand, but that he is risking becoming short for quite a small reward in equity. But fish do make these calls and I am way ahead.


*** FLOP *** [2c Tc 6c]

WTF.

At almost exactly the same time, this hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8382960457: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63785489), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:00:35 ET - 2008/10/07
Seat 1: ibigdaddy (1,235)
Seat 2: obedbattius (1,970)
Seat 3: ertbAl (1,330)
Seat 5: basatagirl (1,605)
Seat 7: cu0ne (4,960)
Seat 9: todamoon1 (2,400)
cu0ne posts the small blind of 60
todamoon1 posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Js Jc]
ibigdaddy folds
obedbattius folds
ertbAl has 15 seconds left to act
ertbAl folds
basatagirl raises to 1,605, and is all in
cu0ne folds
todamoon1 calls 1,485
basatagirl shows [Js Jc]

I have barely played a hand all game.

todamoon1 shows [5d Ad]

That's just awful. I am not shoving 13BB with anything that A5s is ahead of.

Incredibly, this guy is making money.

*** FLOP *** [2d 4h 6d]

WTF. That's probably why he's making money.

Friday 3 October 2008

About shit

So there was a disagreement in the forum over what "unexploitable" means and I PM'd some guy who I'd asked a question about unexploitable ranges before to ask his opinion. He was quite rude about it, and I realised he thought I was sort of calling him out about it. But anyway, he agreed with some guy in the thread.

But the thing is, the guy in the thread said the opposite to what this guy had said before (basically that shoving any suited ace from the button with < 10BB is unexploitable -- which is correct because although the blinds can spite you, they can't exploit you; the whole disagreement -- stupid as it was -- was over whether unexploitable shoves are ones that blinds cannot make -EV with any range, or ones that blinds cannot call profitably with any range: the correct answer is clearly the second and the first is "unspiteability"; it's trivially true that all unspiteable ranges are unexploitable, but the opposite is not true at all).

So is the point that this guy will say whatever fits on whatever occasion? Well no, although that's obviously true.

The point is that this is something that makes learning poker very difficult. People talk shit a lot of the time, give opinions that they can't substantiate, just copy other people's ideas without understanding why they're right, if they are, are not consistent, know things work but not why, and so on. It's a minefield. When I "help" people, I try to explain my thinking, so that the person can see the stitching, and can take it apart if he or she has the ability to think it through. (I'm not immune from talking shit, of course. This blog is full of things I thought I knew and later had to unlearn.)

It's all complicated too by luck (as most things in poker are). People can claim to be knowledgeable because they make money -- and because that's how we keep score, surely it's a viable measure of ability? Well, yeah, it is, but you can run hot over quite long periods, so it's possible to be a winning player and to be doing quite a lot wrong. (It's a big worry for me and my own game: I'm very aware that I might have been above expectation for stretches of my "career" and I wouldn't know; so I try to think about how I think I've been playing, to analyse my play, to understand whether I've been good or just lucky. But still it's hard. There isn't really a test you can take!) So you find people whose thinking you like, and you think about what they say (and, mostly, liking their thinking is an outcome of thinking about what they say and realising it works) and you get a muddled, inconsistent brew of ideas. Oh well.

Wednesday 1 October 2008

September results

My results this month shout at me, you are a fucking worm. And it's true, I am cowardly. I got the month off to a bad start and decided to do a lot of studying rather than playing. But what's the use of study if you don't get the experience to back it? So, yeah, another month with just about no volume.

You know what's frustrating? Maybe I'm a decent player. Maybe I could achieve my goals in poker. But I'll never fucking find out. Because I'll always find excuses not to play enough.

Anyway

I played a grand total of 66 games at 37.1%. That broke down into:

42 12s on Tilt at 35.5%
11 $10 regulars on Stars and Tilt at 56.2%
4 6.5s on Tilt at -37.7%
9 $5 regulars on Titan at 45.5%

I played the fivers on Titan solely to meet the requirements for a year's free membership at Stoxpoker, which is an astonishingly good deal! I also played a double or nothing and cashed, but I don't track results of those in Tourney Manager (I played a dozen or so on PokerRoom and made a profit, but I didn't enjoy them much and I doubt you can make much money at them).

So I ran pretty hot, but I beat the $10 regulars pretty well imo and I'm thinking that I can beat the 12s decently too. I expect to move up to the 24s next month, and that's quite an exciting prospect.

So my goals for October will be much more modest. I'd just like to play more. I'm away for the last week and a half, and I have to help Mrs Zen get ready for me to be away, which will involve doing a ton of cooking, which is going to cut my spare time, but I have to start finding time or I'm never going to get the experience that I need.

Just for fun, here's my graph for September: