Dog of a hand

This is pretty incredible. I'm posting it just so that anyone reading this knows that I know I can be lucky too.

PokerStars Game #17165032972: Tournament #86987073, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/05/03 - 03:05:13 (ET)
Table '86987073 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: dmace16 (3758 in chips)
Seat 6: FR Vessant (2385 in chips)
Seat 7: bama63 (3611 in chips)
Seat 8: akBADseed (3746 in chips)
bama63: posts small blind 100
akBADseed: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ks Ac]
dmace16: folds
FR Vessant: raises 400 to 600

Pretty close to a shove with only 12BB, but these players have been very tight, so I'm not expecting to be called often. If they pick up a hand, they'll likely shove. And I'll call that.

bama63: calls 500

Okay, I'll tell you what he has up front. Kh9h.

So should he call? Fuck no. He's going to be playing king high out of position. It's suited, but I'm basically never paying off a flush unless the board also has an ace (note that he holds the K so any other flush isn't getting paid off). He's behind my entire range here. I've been very very tight, so he can't expect to see anything he beats here. At best I have a small pair and he might outflop me.

akBADseed: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 9d Qd]

This is a decent flop for me, but it's one that I'd expect him to bet at automatically. He's decently aggressive postflop and I expect him to consider whatever he called with preflop to be ahead here or to be able to fold me out.

I am thinking, of course, that he's called with a pair, a big ace, KQ, maybe KJ. Paired flops are generally good for OOP players, because if he bets, I can't call with everything I raised with. Indeed, with the hand I actually did have, I will fold if he bets.

bama63: checks

Now that's odd. I had a feeling about his check and I went with the gut. Normally, you'd cbet here and expect to fold the other guy out.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with checking on this flop for him. I am incredibly unlikely to catch up with him because I'll never have a 9.

FR Vessant: checks
*** TURN *** [9c 9d Qd] [Kd]
bama63: checks

Should he check here? Probably. He has the full and this may well have hit my hand. If it hasn't, I'm not likely to call a bet.

FR Vessant: bets 600
bama63: calls 600

But this is awful. I am never folding AK here but when he calls, I'm worried because there are a few hands out there that beat me. KQ is solidly in his range, JT is possibly there. But he can have KJ too, maybe KT, and it's possible JJ/TT will call here too, although you'd have to think they'd bet the flop.

*** RIVER *** [9c 9d Qd Kd] [Kc]
bama63: checks

Crazy. He has to bet here. What if I have AA? Am I folding that? What if, unlikely as it might be, I have Q9 or T9? Those will be tough to fold.

FR Vessant: bets 800
bama63: calls 800
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FR Vessant: shows [Ks Ac] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)
bama63: shows [Kh 9h] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)

I was astonished when I saw his hand. That really was a huge suckout for me. Preflop was bad for me, because I should have shoved really, and he called a lot wider than I was expecting -- he actually loosened up a ton from here on in, calling a raise a few hands later with 52o. On the flop, I'm crushed. I was lucky he didn't bet, because I'm mostly folding unless it's very small. On the turn, I was both lucky and unlucky. Unlucky to catch up a bit, but lucky that it allowed the huge river suckout.