Please not a 6

Tendollar tourneys just aren't working out for me. This is a terrible table, full of very bad players, so I should make money.


PokerStars Game #17164225231: Tournament #86984081, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/03 - 01:54:51 (ET)
Table '86984081 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: dboy118111 (2305 in chips)
Seat 3: FR Vessant (2915 in chips)
Seat 5: Elbowman (1450 in chips)
Seat 6: Liminality (2980 in chips)
Seat 8: KW11 (690 in chips)
Seat 9: WazzleDazzle (3160 in chips)
dboy118111: posts small blind 50
FR Vessant: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [3d 4d]
Elbowman: folds
Liminality: folds
KW11: folds
WazzleDazzle: folds
dboy118111: calls 50
FR Vessant: checks

*** FLOP *** [5c 6d 3c]
dboy118111: bets 300
FR Vessant: calls 300

He probably has a 6. He can have a draw too. It's a fairly loose call, and in retrospect, I could easily have folded here.

*** TURN *** [5c 6d 3c] [3s]
dboy118111: bets 400
FR Vessant: raises 600 to 1000
dboy118111: calls 600

I almost certainly have the best hand here, and will need to be very unlucky to lose. I probably should have raised a bit more but I am putting him only on TP, which is making a mistake against this raise. Not that the hand he actually had isn't making one.


*** RIVER *** [5c 6d 3c 3s] [6s]

My heart just sank. I know I will be beaten, but the pot is so big I have to call a push in case he has an overpair or 44, which is possible.

dboy118111: bets 905 and is all-in
FR Vessant: calls 905
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dboy118111: shows [7d 6h] (a full house, Sixes full of Threes)
FR Vessant: shows [3d 4d] (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)


Well, I could have avoided the trouble by folding on the flop but meh. This time the guy had six outs to beat me, but by fuck, I could do with winning a few this week.

***

The thing is, over the long term, this is what theoretically makes you money: crap players get their money in way behind. Like the guy in a 6.5 who called a shove with K8s after limping. I had AJs. I should win that 63% of the time, and I probably do, but when the 37% coincides with your putting 90% of your stack in, and the 63% less valuable spots, you lose money even so.

The guy with six outs loses one time in 7.5. But that one time he pretty much stacks me, and the other 6.5 will be times when someone has six outs, misses and doesn't pay me a cent.

Sigh. If the river had been a 7, for instance, I would have stacked him, and likely been $50 better off. Given that my average profit from a tenner is two bucks, you can see that a $60 swing really hurts.