I genuinely feel like crying. These aren't just 70/30s. These are people laying really incredible beats on me. Not just one or two. At least a dozen in the past two dozen games. In literally half my games, I'm getting outdrawn by guys hitting no more than four outs, flopping straights or flushes against my big hands...
Full Tilt Poker Game #8410250300: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (63995674), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:25:14 ET - 2008/10/09
Seat 1: greenpolo888 (2,660)
Seat 2: rajangoog (1,685)
Seat 4: Brewmaster8 (2,345)
Seat 6: basatagirl (1,410)
Seat 7: ak800 (1,270)
Seat 8: TestJunkie (1,350)
Seat 9: Sweetcheet (2,780)
ak800 posts the small blind of 40
TestJunkie posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Td As]
basatagirl has 15 seconds left to act
basatagirl raises to 200
Standard raise. I expect both to fold quite often.
TestJunkie calls 120
He should fold. He has KJs. Calling that with 11BB against a player he knows is tight is no good. Even though my range widens on the button, he should still fold. If he thinks he's ahead of me, he needs to shove. But I'm not that wide. I don't have a big stack or anything, and I'm not going to be raising many hands KJs beats. On many flops, I'll cbet and he's going to have to fold. He can't stop and go often because I'll call a lot of the time.
*** FLOP *** [Qs 3c Ks]
Why don't I cbet here?
1/ His range has a lot of Ks and Qs and a lot of pairs. He won't fold any of that. Some he'll shove and I'll have to fold my four outs.
2/ The flush draws won't fold either.
3/ The rest of his range is hands that have somewhat hit this: he might have JT/J9 and may call or even shove with them.
*** TURN *** [Qs 3c Ks] [Jh]
Nice! I turn my straight.
TestJunkie bets 1,150, and is all in
basatagirl calls 1,150
Easy call of course.
TestJunkie shows [Jc Kc]
basatagirl shows [Td As]
So he has four outs. I am a 10.5 to 1 favourite. I have to fade two Js and...
*** RIVER *** [Qs 3c Ks Jh] [Kd]