Wednesday, 15 October 2008

All in

Given that some of the games I've played, I've just been cold-decked, it makes sense that I have been about even when I've got it in, or slightly better. If you've been running a bit cold cardswise, you're going to be getting it in behind more than you'd like. This is part of luck, just as much as allin luck.

But check out my allin luck.

It should make me feel better to know that I probably don't suck as much as my stats suggest. I'd post my graph for the 12s, but I mislaid it. Anyway, it's actually +luck by a little bit. So it can happen!

I'll explain the graph in case you don't know what they mean, and show you why it should make me feel a bit better.

I am -$297 in luck. That means I have won $297 less than I could expect when the money went in. Basically, if $100 is at stake, and I get it in as a 70/30 favourite, I expect to win $70.

I have lost $180 at the 24s. So I'm 117 dollars behind where I should be. Over 38 games, that's 13% ROI.

I should be running at 13% if I got my expectation when all in.

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