If you're going to bluff...

You have to pick a less obvious spot than this:


PokerStars Game #18408283813: Tournament #93536693, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/06/26 - 23:29:28 (ET)
Table '93536693 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: lvt_glf_22 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: cr100098 (1400 in chips)
Seat 3: reddiswet (1400 in chips)
Seat 4: FR Vessant (1390 in chips)
Seat 5: kpwmba (1460 in chips)
Seat 6: dudo78 (1630 in chips)
Seat 7: Team Protege (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: H8LUZN (1730 in chips)
Seat 9: tiger1031 (1520 in chips)
tiger1031: posts small blind 10
lvt_glf_22: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [8h 8c]
cr100098: folds
reddiswet: folds
FR Vessant: calls 20

Standard to limp a small pair.

kpwmba: folds
dudo78: folds
Team Protege: folds
H8LUZN: folds
tiger1031: calls 10
lvt_glf_22: raises 60 to 80

He hasn't raised yet but we haven't played many hands.

FR Vessant: calls 60

Easy call for set value.

tiger1031: folds
*** FLOP *** [5d Jc 9d]

Now, normally, having missed our set, we'd take no further part in the hand. But if villain did not start with a pair, he's not all that likely to have hit this.

The problem with midpairs is that they are often best, but don't hold up very well, and cannot stand heat.

lvt_glf_22: checks

But I'm interpreting this as he missed. I'll take a stab and fold if he raises big.

FR Vessant: bets 100
lvt_glf_22: calls 100

If he's trapping, he's not making it too expensive, but I expect I'm ahead here. He may have called with overs or even the flush draw.

*** TURN *** [5d Jc 9d] [3c]
lvt_glf_22: checks
FR Vessant: checks

Check behind on this turn, although I do think I'm still ahead. I considered betting here to make the draws pay, but the problem is how much. There are just so many river cards I will hate (any diamond, A/K/Q/T for various reasons) and most $10 tards won't fold a reasonable draw unless you make it very expensive. Even then, they sometimes call.

So I think that checking it back is okay here, with one caveat: if the river bricks, you must call the bet there that you could have made here.

If he's trapped you, you pay him. He can have a better hand that was hoping to CR the turn, but mostly you're going to be ahead. I think you have to call most reasonable bets on rivers that brick. If the river seems to have made a draw, I think you can fairly safely fold. They'll usually have it if they bet it.

I'm not sure my play is sound on the turn though. It may be better to bet. Against the draw I'm best here, and mostly stay best on the river. With a hand like AdQd, he has 15 outs, and is a 2 to 1 dog, and that's about as good as it gets (KdQd has a bit more equity, but it would be odd not to play that harder on the flop). But you are not going to get a bet out of draws on the river if they check it to you. You have to simply check your 88 behind. He could have a worse pair (and can also have a better one, because A9 fits his action) but he may not call another bet with it, and it's not that much of his range. Not everyone will bluff with a missed draw, so your best chance to make value is to bet here and make the draws pay. But I am playing cautiously, trying not to put too much in with a weak hand that can already be beaten by a trapping player.

*** RIVER *** [5d Jc 9d 3c] [2h]
lvt_glf_22: bets 220
FR Vessant: calls 220

So, easy call. This is a terrible card to bluff on, because it doesn't make any of the possible draws, but I think that he has to be trying it on here. So I am paying him when he's trapping, but he won't often be.


*** SHOW DOWN ***
lvt_glf_22: shows [Kc Qd] (high card King)
FR Vessant: shows [8h 8c] (a pair of Eights)

Nice.