All you can eat, baybeee

I am tired of whining. With most things, I eventually stop and then try to fix the problem. Well, I can't fix my luck, but I can fix my attitude to it.

Poker is not like bridge. Best play does not always win, and the best player can often go home emptyhanded. We mostly know this, but we don't actually feel it.

It's actually like you're in a leaky boat on a huge ocean. You cannot do anything about the ocean. All you can do is try to stay afloat. You'll sometimes have flat calm and easy sailing, sometimes you'll be riding the waves, but sometimes you'll plunge, almost sinking.

For this post, I'm going to show you an exercise I did today. Basically, I looked at all my allins, to see how I actually ran. I think I'll do this a bit when I am feeling unlucky, so that I get a grip on how I'm going. I won't be considering times people suck out on me in crappy pots (although this is a big component in how you do) but just look at allins for now.

To read the following, you need to know: the first hand is mine; the second his. Then I note the action and the result. I should have noted when these hands happened, but they are actually almost all at t150 or t200, with I think only the first two at t100. Hopefully, seeing the action might give you some glimmering of why I felt it was worthwhile to go in. If I'd been playing fewer tables, I'd have noted stack sizes and action a bit more fully, but the basic idea is clear.

33 QJ all in on Q32 flop: I win. Standard for a set. I bet, he raised, I got it in and he called.

AK 99. He raised small, I shoved over: I lose and bust out. I'm a 45% underdog.

KK 99. J753 board: I win. I raised pre, bet the flop and turn and he shoved over. I snapcalled.

KQ A2. BvB for 10BB. I would have been shoving a lot lighter than KQ. I was pissed off to be behind, because his call was horrible (I covered him), but KQ is obv. the nuts. I was a 42% underdog. That's not so bad.

QQ 77. I pushed over three limpers in the BB. I had about 9BB or something like that: I won with a flush on the river. I was an 80% favourite.

A8 99. I pushed over a limper. I don't know whether he was "trapping" or just stupid, and in this spot, I never really know what they're thinking. He should have pushed with this hand. You don't actually want to be allin unless you have a monster, and 99 is not a monster. I was quite short, so I felt it was worth trying to fold the guy out. Anyway, I flopped an ace. I was a 29% underdog. You are usually about 29-31% if you are basically drawing to one card.

AA J7. J93 flop. I raised pre and the big blind, who had a big stack, called. I think he bet the flop and I shoved. Pretty standard and I won. I was mildly surprised he didn't turn a 7.

A8s 77. I shoved from the button with about 10BB. He had me covered by a bit so fair enough. I was a 46% underdog. You're generally in good shape with suited overcards vs an underpair, more so if your cards connect. ATs is 48%, QJs is a favourite. If that strikes you as odd, think it through. With overcards, it really doesn't matter what they are, except that the 7 stops a straight for the lower overcards. Both hands make flushes, but QJs makes more straights. It's a connector without gaps, and can make several different straights with cards on either end. ATs needs to be filled and can only make one straight. Generally, you'd prefer to have ATs when you push, but when you see the pair, you wish you'd had QJs! This thinking explains why QJs is such a good pushing hand. I lost this one and busted.

AT KQs. A99 flop. This is the same guy who paid my AA on the J high flop. His play was inexplicable. He led the flop and called a shove. I couldn't believe his hand. I had raised pre and was strongly repping an ace. Not believing me is just dumb. Yeah, I could be bluffing, but many of those bluffs are pairs, and to tell the truth, this will only rarely be a bluff, never by me. My hand obviously held up.

AK AJs. I pushed from the button. His call was bad because he surrendered all his equity with a shorty in the game. Dominating villains is great. I'm a 70% favourite (again, the guy who needs to hit a particular card is about a 30% shot). He missed.

JJ AT. I was in the BB and pushed over limpers. The guy who called had a decent sized stack but he shouldn't have limped in the first place. My hand held up. I was a 71% favourite (again, he's in the 29-31% range because he's basically drawing to an A. He has some equity from straights, but not much because I block his straight.)

QJ K9. JT5 flop. I was pretty short so I was more than willing to get it in with an aggro player with TP decent kicker. I don't like his play. I am never folding when I bet, and he has only 7 outs vs top pair. As it happens, he didn't even have that, because I held one of the Qs. I won.

A6 QQ. BvB. We were at t400 and I shoved a decent stack into a shorty. Sometimes they pick up a hand. I'm a 28% dog and the poker gods gave me the cold shoulder this time. I lost and was desperate.

76s 83s. Next hand, I pushed from the button with about 2BB. I'm getting called by BB whatever he has, but my hand should play okay vs a random hand: I'd be a 46% dog. 83s is a bit worse than average so I was 47% to win. I looked like doing it too, making two pair on the turn, but he rivered me and I busted.

Q4s AJ. Heads up and I was quite short, so I shoved. He happened to have a hand and I busted. I was about 39% to win, which at least gives me a chance. When short HU, you should be looking to push a lot. You're rarely that badly behind.

AK A2. HU. I raised, he pushed, I snapped it. No one improved and I busted him. I was a 74% favourite. This time he's not 30% because his pair can so easily be counterfeited.

T4 QQ. HU. This guy was super annoying. He was spanked by the deck and hit the flop with monotonous regularity. Earlier he had gained a big stack by turning a straight with an AK he had not bet for the whole hand, while I hit trip jacks on the river. Meh. Here he limped the SB and I passed the shove. The flop came XX4, he bet weakly and I shoved over. I put him on a steal because he had tried to trap with every decent hand he'd had. He made a big fuss when he showed his hand, but whatever. I often get called a donkey by players who see the play that doesn't work and not the five similar plays that do work. Hilariously, yesterday, some guy called me a donk when I was knocked out by a guy who called my shove with a dominated hand. This same guy had called a push for 10BB with Q9s. It's funny: bad players think pushing light is much worse than calling light. They have it exactly the wrong way round.

So that wasn't bad. I was lucky a couple of times, and never actually lost an allin when ahead. If I ran like that every session, I'd be a millionaire before long.