Just in case anyone stumbles on this blog who doesn't understand poker too well and is confused why I think it is bad that a guy calls a raise with A4s, this is why.
We were at t100. I had 2500 chips. I raised to 300. The most you can win from me if you get lucky is 2500 chips. So you are at best taking 2650/200 (my stack 2500 plus blinds of 150 vs your call) odds that Ah4h ends up the best hand against whatever I had.
Let's assume that you know nothing about me. You haven't been paying attention and you just have to assume I'm a standard donk. I don't have a huge stack but it was folded to me in the cutoff. Most players will not raise too wide a range, maybe 55+, A9+, KJ+. That's a bit wider than I'd raise, as it happens.
I can have bigger aces 12 ways, the king high hands 16 ways and pairs 6 ways.
If we flop it ace high, I'll probably cbet KQ/KJ and you can call that, planning to trap me for more bets later in the hand. But I won't bet again and you'll fold me out on the river. Same with pairs. My cbet is likely to be about 300. I won't always make it, particularly with better pairs because they have showdown value.
So let's say I cbet with 55-99, KQ and KJ. That's 62 hands that make you 300 chips each.
But I'll also bet all my ace-high hands. I have 60 of those. Oh dear. And you are getting stacked by them unless you have flopped A4. You'll do that about 1.5 per cent of the time (because I hold one of your "outs"). Some small amount of the time, I will outredraw you. If you're not stacked on A high flops, you're going to lose at least 300.
You'll flop a flush less than another percent.
About 11 per cent of the time you flop a flush draw. But you only make it one in three times and you'll pay to do it. You won't have much in the way of implied odds, because with pairs I'm not going to pay you off too often when I let you draw to the river.
The rest of the time you're going to fold. You can continue to chase your ace if you like. Some players will float the flop and bet any turn, hoping that they catch out a cbettor. This is rare though, but I will usually bet a bit more than the books tell you to when I cbet (and cbet a bit less often) so that my cbets are not so obvious that a bold LAGgy type can pick them off. I also tend to bet the same amount with a made hand. Not that they're paying attention, but it helps me not to get into a groove.
Add all those figures up and you're losing most of that 300 when you call. Now the guy had me covered by quite a bit, and probably felt he was gambling, trying to bust me. A lot of players, that's their attitude. Call with hands that can make huge hands and win huge pots. But I just don't have enough chips for that. I don't have a 100BB stack even, so your implied odds are fairly small. As I said, 8 to 1 at best. And to stack me I have to hit when you do. I just won't all that often. How often when you flop that flush do I hit my kicker? (I can't hit my ace obv.) My ability at probability is not sufficient to work it out, but the answer has to be "not often".
So the reason is that I'm not deep enough. He actually has an easy fold. He is dominated about half the time, and will miss the flop most of the rest of the time. For himself, the rewards are not great enough for the risk he takes. But isn't busting someone good for him?
Well yes, but not all that good. He will take my chips but he doesn't get my equity. He hands a portion of that to everyone else who didn't call, but watched him do it. In fact, he cannot even consider his call to pay 13/1 because it might do that in chips, but it doesn't in dollars. I guess recreational players are not so interested in the dollars though.
Of course, he is not even getting 13/1. This is not 54s or 66, hands with which you will make your hand and win a stack possibly or just fold the flop. This is A4s. When you're figuring what your chances are, you have to take into account that if you are dumb enough to call a 3x raise with ace rag, you are going to be dumb enough to stack off with it when we flop it ace high.
Tuesday, 8 April 2008
Lesson to learn
This sort of thing is infuriating, and you can imagine that it chips away at your ROI.
I don't know the villain in this hand, but I suspect he's not very good.
TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T4-64904151-25
played at "Erlangen" for USD TC from 2008-04-07 23:00 until 2008-04-07 23:01
Seat 2: jpa313 ($2,155 in chips)
Seat 3: Dr Zen ($1,360 in chips)
Seat 4: xKyyx ($1,926 in chips)
Seat 5: morillon23 ($2,231 in chips)
Seat 6: carlosher ($4,673 in chips)
Seat 7: scrjuergen ($1,325 in chips)
Seat 10: BROWN.ACE ($1,330 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
jpa313 posts blind ($25), Dr Zen posts blind ($50).
PRE-FLOP
xKyyx folds, morillon23 folds, carlosher folds, scrjuergen folds, BROWN.ACE folds, jpa313 calls $25, Dr Zen checks.
I have JTo. That's a decent enough hand for the BB, and should be ahead if I flop top pair.
FLOP [board cards: 2H TH 9D ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen bets $60, jpa313 calls $60.
Which I do. I bet about 2/3 pot. A flush draw won't fold and I guess most straight draws won't either, but you don't want to put too much more in with a marginal hand.
TURN [board cards: 2H TH 9D 8C ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen bets $100, jpa313 calls $100.
The turn improves my hand slightly. I'm putting this guy on a heart draw at this point. I bet enough that he should fold it.
RIVER [board cards: 2H TH 9D 8C AH ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen checks.
So the draw just came in. I'm glad to check behind.
Basically, if he had the flush draw, I get out cheaply. If he has paired or started with a low pair, I'm going to be ahead but I don't fancy the value bet (even though flushes usually bet here, afraid you will check behind). I suppose QT may not have raised, but generally TP with a decent kicker is going to put more money in somewhere in that hand.
SHOWDOWN
jpa313 shows [ AD JD ]
WTF?
Dr Zen mucks cards [ JC TS ]
jpa313 wins $420.
That's how it goes, I suppose. His play is atrocious on every street. I don't like his limp preflop, his call on the flop is bad and the one on the turn worse. To compound matters, he didn't even put in a bet when he made his hand.
See, this guy will lose money at poker. I guarantee it. No matter what he plays, what stakes, what game, he will lose. This is how I know. On the turn, he is 6.7 to 1 to hit his OCs. He doesn't know I have a jack. Assume I don't. Assume his outs will make his hand good. There is 320 in the pot and he has to call 100 to win it. He's being offered 3.2 to 1.
The bet is a losing proposition for him unless he can make up some value on the river. But if he doesn't bet when he hits, he just won't do that.
He doesn't know any of that, of course. He just thinks "I have overcards and I'll win if I hit them". The fun of the game for him is trying to get ITM in the STTs that he plays, fairly rarely probably. To me, not wanting to win, and not wanting to have the tools to win, even in the most rudimentary way, is inexplicable.
And you know, I should win money in poker. I mean, I am winning money, but I should continue to do so. Because I understand what he did wrong and I don't make that same mistake. I make others, but this guy wouldn't even understand why they are mistakes.
I made one later in the tourney. I double up when I raise 3x with QQ and some guy calls, pairs on the flop and then calls a push.
But I lose it all in a very tough hand.
I have AT and raise to 3x. A player who has me covered but I'm not sure I've seen do anything calls.
The flop comes T high, three hearts. He checks, I bet a decent amount, enough that I can push the turn. He calls.
His call doesn't mean anything much. His most likely hands are a pair and Ahx. He might have both for the combo draw. The turn is a blank and I push.
You know, it's not that some guy who called a suited ace-rag hit his flush. It's that I hit the flop fairly decently too.
I know he can have a flush. Against a better player, I'd expect him to have it more often, because other hands that I put in his range would likely get it in on the flop, hoping to use their fold equity to make them a decent favourite in the hand. When he calls on the flop, his range is not just flushes or anything like it, but I bet decently to define my hand, and I think that I should have read the oracle. The key concept that I ignored was that if you make an action for a purpose, you should not just ignore the outcome if you have no other information. I was betting for value, but at the top end of the range I'd consider betting because I felt that it should allow me to have a better idea of what I was up against. Curiously, as soon as he called, I was thinking "JJ". And I still pushed the turn! (Clearly, I figure Ahx will call the push, particularly if it has paired its kicker.) Checking behind on the turn would have forced him to bet out on the river though, and that would have allowed me to stay in the tourney. (If he bet small, I call but I keep some of my stack; if he bet big, I can get away from it.) Okay, I give a free card to flush draws, but in retrospect, that's probably not such a bad idea because they'll likely put money in on the river if they miss/have only a pair. (Which is why I call small bets on the river.)
This is what tilt does. I can see clearly how I played the hand wrongly, but I couldn't slow down when actually playing it and think it through. To be fair to myself, I don't think I've been playing all that badly. I really have been getting big hands cracked and losing when I'm ahead an awful lot. And I do make mistakes anyway, of course.
Oh well, it's another lesson, I suppose.
I don't know the villain in this hand, but I suspect he's not very good.
TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T4-64904151-25
played at "Erlangen" for USD TC from 2008-04-07 23:00 until 2008-04-07 23:01
Seat 2: jpa313 ($2,155 in chips)
Seat 3: Dr Zen ($1,360 in chips)
Seat 4: xKyyx ($1,926 in chips)
Seat 5: morillon23 ($2,231 in chips)
Seat 6: carlosher ($4,673 in chips)
Seat 7: scrjuergen ($1,325 in chips)
Seat 10: BROWN.ACE ($1,330 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
jpa313 posts blind ($25), Dr Zen posts blind ($50).
PRE-FLOP
xKyyx folds, morillon23 folds, carlosher folds, scrjuergen folds, BROWN.ACE folds, jpa313 calls $25, Dr Zen checks.
I have JTo. That's a decent enough hand for the BB, and should be ahead if I flop top pair.
FLOP [board cards: 2H TH 9D ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen bets $60, jpa313 calls $60.
Which I do. I bet about 2/3 pot. A flush draw won't fold and I guess most straight draws won't either, but you don't want to put too much more in with a marginal hand.
TURN [board cards: 2H TH 9D 8C ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen bets $100, jpa313 calls $100.
The turn improves my hand slightly. I'm putting this guy on a heart draw at this point. I bet enough that he should fold it.
RIVER [board cards: 2H TH 9D 8C AH ]
jpa313 checks, Dr Zen checks.
So the draw just came in. I'm glad to check behind.
Basically, if he had the flush draw, I get out cheaply. If he has paired or started with a low pair, I'm going to be ahead but I don't fancy the value bet (even though flushes usually bet here, afraid you will check behind). I suppose QT may not have raised, but generally TP with a decent kicker is going to put more money in somewhere in that hand.
SHOWDOWN
jpa313 shows [ AD JD ]
WTF?
Dr Zen mucks cards [ JC TS ]
jpa313 wins $420.
That's how it goes, I suppose. His play is atrocious on every street. I don't like his limp preflop, his call on the flop is bad and the one on the turn worse. To compound matters, he didn't even put in a bet when he made his hand.
See, this guy will lose money at poker. I guarantee it. No matter what he plays, what stakes, what game, he will lose. This is how I know. On the turn, he is 6.7 to 1 to hit his OCs. He doesn't know I have a jack. Assume I don't. Assume his outs will make his hand good. There is 320 in the pot and he has to call 100 to win it. He's being offered 3.2 to 1.
The bet is a losing proposition for him unless he can make up some value on the river. But if he doesn't bet when he hits, he just won't do that.
He doesn't know any of that, of course. He just thinks "I have overcards and I'll win if I hit them". The fun of the game for him is trying to get ITM in the STTs that he plays, fairly rarely probably. To me, not wanting to win, and not wanting to have the tools to win, even in the most rudimentary way, is inexplicable.
And you know, I should win money in poker. I mean, I am winning money, but I should continue to do so. Because I understand what he did wrong and I don't make that same mistake. I make others, but this guy wouldn't even understand why they are mistakes.
I made one later in the tourney. I double up when I raise 3x with QQ and some guy calls, pairs on the flop and then calls a push.
But I lose it all in a very tough hand.
I have AT and raise to 3x. A player who has me covered but I'm not sure I've seen do anything calls.
The flop comes T high, three hearts. He checks, I bet a decent amount, enough that I can push the turn. He calls.
His call doesn't mean anything much. His most likely hands are a pair and Ahx. He might have both for the combo draw. The turn is a blank and I push.
You know, it's not that some guy who called a suited ace-rag hit his flush. It's that I hit the flop fairly decently too.
I know he can have a flush. Against a better player, I'd expect him to have it more often, because other hands that I put in his range would likely get it in on the flop, hoping to use their fold equity to make them a decent favourite in the hand. When he calls on the flop, his range is not just flushes or anything like it, but I bet decently to define my hand, and I think that I should have read the oracle. The key concept that I ignored was that if you make an action for a purpose, you should not just ignore the outcome if you have no other information. I was betting for value, but at the top end of the range I'd consider betting because I felt that it should allow me to have a better idea of what I was up against. Curiously, as soon as he called, I was thinking "JJ". And I still pushed the turn! (Clearly, I figure Ahx will call the push, particularly if it has paired its kicker.) Checking behind on the turn would have forced him to bet out on the river though, and that would have allowed me to stay in the tourney. (If he bet small, I call but I keep some of my stack; if he bet big, I can get away from it.) Okay, I give a free card to flush draws, but in retrospect, that's probably not such a bad idea because they'll likely put money in on the river if they miss/have only a pair. (Which is why I call small bets on the river.)
This is what tilt does. I can see clearly how I played the hand wrongly, but I couldn't slow down when actually playing it and think it through. To be fair to myself, I don't think I've been playing all that badly. I really have been getting big hands cracked and losing when I'm ahead an awful lot. And I do make mistakes anyway, of course.
Oh well, it's another lesson, I suppose.
Sunday, 6 April 2008
Four outs
So I limp in with 87s on the button. I flop the flush. Some guy bets into me and I raise pretty big.
The turn pairs.
You know, I just know he will have it. He'd need AT or T9.
Yeah, he has T9. It's unreal. Just four fucking outs on the turn.
Four outs. You'd think they'd just occasionally miss!
***
Mind you, a minute later, on another table, I have 77. The flop comes T87. Some guy bets big. I know he has J9. I can't fold though.
Still, turn and river are both aces, so all's well that ends well.
***
So I've been card dead, and on the bubble I gamble and push with KT. Luckily, some tard calls with T9. EZ money, right?
Wrong. Flop is 998.
***
So I raise with KK and some guy pushes over. I snapcall. He has AK. Flop is A high, three hearts and I have the K of hearts. I am less of an underdog than he was before the flop.
LOL.
At the moment, it doesn't really matter whether I'm a favourite, I lose anyway.
This is killing me. There was no alternative play there. No way to play that differently. I raised and some guy pushed. I either call or fold. If he had turned his hand face up, I would have snapcalled. So what can you do?
***
I guess you need those things to go your way if you also make bad plays. On another table, I took a risky push with 22. Called in two spots, both pairs. Sigh.
At another, on the bubble, I raise with 77. Some guy reraises. It's odd that he doesn't push. It means one of two things. Either he thinks I'm stealing, because I've raised a fair bit, and is going for a cheap resteal. Or he has a big hand and doesn't want me to fold.
This puts me in a terrible spot. I don't want to fold, because I'm probably ahead, but if I push, everything calls, and I'm probably only ahead in a coinflip at best, and some of the time, I'm miles behind to a bigger hand.
But folding seems far too weak here. I push then and he shows KK. GG me.
The turn pairs.
You know, I just know he will have it. He'd need AT or T9.
Yeah, he has T9. It's unreal. Just four fucking outs on the turn.
Four outs. You'd think they'd just occasionally miss!
***
Mind you, a minute later, on another table, I have 77. The flop comes T87. Some guy bets big. I know he has J9. I can't fold though.
Still, turn and river are both aces, so all's well that ends well.
***
So I've been card dead, and on the bubble I gamble and push with KT. Luckily, some tard calls with T9. EZ money, right?
Wrong. Flop is 998.
***
So I raise with KK and some guy pushes over. I snapcall. He has AK. Flop is A high, three hearts and I have the K of hearts. I am less of an underdog than he was before the flop.
LOL.
At the moment, it doesn't really matter whether I'm a favourite, I lose anyway.
This is killing me. There was no alternative play there. No way to play that differently. I raised and some guy pushed. I either call or fold. If he had turned his hand face up, I would have snapcalled. So what can you do?
***
I guess you need those things to go your way if you also make bad plays. On another table, I took a risky push with 22. Called in two spots, both pairs. Sigh.
At another, on the bubble, I raise with 77. Some guy reraises. It's odd that he doesn't push. It means one of two things. Either he thinks I'm stealing, because I've raised a fair bit, and is going for a cheap resteal. Or he has a big hand and doesn't want me to fold.
This puts me in a terrible spot. I don't want to fold, because I'm probably ahead, but if I push, everything calls, and I'm probably only ahead in a coinflip at best, and some of the time, I'm miles behind to a bigger hand.
But folding seems far too weak here. I push then and he shows KK. GG me.
I hate poker
So I win one tourney and I'm feeling good this AM. I sign up for another and I recognise some of the names. They are some of the worst LAGtards you've ever played against. Somehow three of them contrive to get stacks, so I get to the bubble at t200 with 10BB. Nearly every pot is going to be raised, so I'll have to pick a spot.
One particularly bad idiot limps on the button. I'm in the BB with JJ. This is an easy shove, so I push.
He calls and shows QTs. You can't justify his call. Even though he has a bigger stack than I do, it's terrible. He's calling 9BB with a hand that's almost certainly behind.
Well, yeah, it's behind but you just know that it'll catch up.
I hate this. This guy is limping a wide range, most of which I dominate, let alone beat. He can have hands like 97, all smaller pairs (he'd be raising anything bigger than 66 I should think), crappy broadway hands like the one he showed, K7 maybe. He might be trapping, but even if he is, I only fear three hands.
The flop comes KJ8. So basically, even if I limped, he would have called a push or bet on the flop. Note that I have a set. This is the exquisite torture that PokerRoom enjoys inflicting on you.
Still, I'm a redhot favourite to win on the flop, right? He's 2 to 1 to hit his straight, but if he does, I have ten outs to redraw.
Turn is an A, of course, river a 3.
This guy has done this to me maybe four out of five times we've been in this spot. The same guy. He must think he's a genius.
One particularly bad idiot limps on the button. I'm in the BB with JJ. This is an easy shove, so I push.
He calls and shows QTs. You can't justify his call. Even though he has a bigger stack than I do, it's terrible. He's calling 9BB with a hand that's almost certainly behind.
Well, yeah, it's behind but you just know that it'll catch up.
I hate this. This guy is limping a wide range, most of which I dominate, let alone beat. He can have hands like 97, all smaller pairs (he'd be raising anything bigger than 66 I should think), crappy broadway hands like the one he showed, K7 maybe. He might be trapping, but even if he is, I only fear three hands.
The flop comes KJ8. So basically, even if I limped, he would have called a push or bet on the flop. Note that I have a set. This is the exquisite torture that PokerRoom enjoys inflicting on you.
Still, I'm a redhot favourite to win on the flop, right? He's 2 to 1 to hit his straight, but if he does, I have ten outs to redraw.
Turn is an A, of course, river a 3.
This guy has done this to me maybe four out of five times we've been in this spot. The same guy. He must think he's a genius.
Thursday, 3 April 2008
Rest
I am going to take some time off. I feel so crushed that I can't play poker any more. It's making me tilt, so I'm not even sure I'm playing well any more. I know I shouldn't give in, but I was hoping this would be my way out. Instead, it is just more bars on the cage.
Woe
Next up, I have KK and about 3K in chips at t200. Some guy raises to 500. I raise it to 1K to keep him in. He calls. The flop is J high and he pushes. I snapcall.
He has AJ. Turn J, river A.
Then some guy rivers a straight vs my AA. He was miles behind throughout the hand but he'd flopped top pair, so no way was he folding. In that same tourney, I had turned a straight against another player, who then sucked out to a two-outer to the exact same straight. Gawd.
A couple of cashes, then I accidentally limp with KK in the small blind. The big stack pushes. I snapcall. He has AT. This is getting beyond a joke. I am a huge favourite there, so I really should win those occasionally, right?
Two minutes later, I have a decent stack fourhanded at t200. Button raises to 500. I have him covered and push with QQ. He should fold, but he doesn't. Why would he when he holds AT? That hand's unbeatable against me.
He has AJ. Turn J, river A.
Then some guy rivers a straight vs my AA. He was miles behind throughout the hand but he'd flopped top pair, so no way was he folding. In that same tourney, I had turned a straight against another player, who then sucked out to a two-outer to the exact same straight. Gawd.
A couple of cashes, then I accidentally limp with KK in the small blind. The big stack pushes. I snapcall. He has AT. This is getting beyond a joke. I am a huge favourite there, so I really should win those occasionally, right?
Two minutes later, I have a decent stack fourhanded at t200. Button raises to 500. I have him covered and push with QQ. He should fold, but he doesn't. Why would he when he holds AT? That hand's unbeatable against me.
Doom
Maybe they really have thrown a doomswitch on me.
It's t20. I have KK. One guy has limped. I raise to 100. This guy and one other call.
The flop comes T97. Not too dangerous. The guy who limped pushes. WTF? I snapcall. He has 86. Yes, he called a 5BB raise OOP with 86.
***
On my next table, I'm card dead. I push KTs. One guy calls. Of course he has KQ. I am always dominated. Always.
***
I hate minraisers. Passionately. Particularly when you're shorter than they are. You start believing they have noticed you fold, and are stealing every time. So a guy who has a monster stack raises in the SB. I have 77 in the BB. I push over. He calls. He has AQ.
Well, even at that, I am a fav... well, who am I kidding? As sure as night follows day, the ace flops.
***
Next a guy raises to 3x. First hand of the tourney. I have AK. Two guys call and it's to me. I push. One of the callers calls me. He has KK.
I mean, wtf? If he played anything like correctly, I would have been able to get away from my hand. It really hurts that you suffer from bad play more than they do.
In all but the KTs hand, the villains played badly, atrociously. My play is standard in each case. But I have lost $40 and that's the first hour of my day.
It's t20. I have KK. One guy has limped. I raise to 100. This guy and one other call.
The flop comes T97. Not too dangerous. The guy who limped pushes. WTF? I snapcall. He has 86. Yes, he called a 5BB raise OOP with 86.
***
On my next table, I'm card dead. I push KTs. One guy calls. Of course he has KQ. I am always dominated. Always.
***
I hate minraisers. Passionately. Particularly when you're shorter than they are. You start believing they have noticed you fold, and are stealing every time. So a guy who has a monster stack raises in the SB. I have 77 in the BB. I push over. He calls. He has AQ.
Well, even at that, I am a fav... well, who am I kidding? As sure as night follows day, the ace flops.
***
Next a guy raises to 3x. First hand of the tourney. I have AK. Two guys call and it's to me. I push. One of the callers calls me. He has KK.
I mean, wtf? If he played anything like correctly, I would have been able to get away from my hand. It really hurts that you suffer from bad play more than they do.
In all but the KTs hand, the villains played badly, atrociously. My play is standard in each case. But I have lost $40 and that's the first hour of my day.
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