So I get a third place in an sng where I'm far the best player but get all my cards in the big blind and have it walked.
Then I pick up QQ in the sb at t50, one limper, I raise to 200, he calls.
Flop is AAJ. He checks. With a huge sigh, I bet out 300. He raises and of course I fold. Every time I have a big pair and some idiot calls a raise, an ace comes on the flop. I'm pretty sure he had one. Yeah, maybe he had JT or a midpair but why go bust finding out? Most players in fivers are not tricky enough to play the odds like that.
Anyway, I'm tilting a bit, so I pick up JTs in the cutoff and raise it to 200. You're not calling that with a pair of eights, right? No, me either. But some guy does on the button. Flop comes ATx and I push. I'm delighted to see his hand obviously.
River 8. I am hating this so much. My ROI has plummeted. I just lose all the time. It doesn't matter what shithouse draw my opponents have. Even two outs is good enough.
You can argue that raising the JTs is a bad play, and I should fold, but even so, only one of us really made any mistakes. Not just calling preflop, which is horrible, but calling on the flop, which is worse. My most likely hands are ace-something and a pair bigger than tens. These retards just think fuck it, I have a pair, and I'm calling any bet. They don't even look at the board in my view.
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8 comments:
boots sez:
I recognize the taste of your pain, is it time to spend a day pondering the reasons you play poker? What you expect to gain from it, and why you think it a more suitable approach than trading currency futures or something different?
Is it really about money? Or is it perhaps about something else? Are you actually playing well by your view, playing the maths, or are you playing your gut without realizing it?
If you're not certain what you're doing or why, a timeout until you've considered it might be in order.
It's one thing to pick up a subject, study it and gain some good level of understanding, then practice it. But when actual results do not match up with theoretical expectations, things may need some sorting.
What you've been writing gives the indication that either you're not playing according to your own theories, or that your theories don't match up with reality as well as you'd hoped they would.
I'm seeing lots of links and no doubt all those experts say similar things, but have you considered they might be talking for their own notoriety and not to give you the inside scoop?
Sometimes you end up going faster over the course if you slow to a crawl at the hairpin turns.
You've rejected my view of Luck and how it can be dealt with, which is fine, but something seems amiss. There are a lot of books available about stock trading and almost all of them are absolute crap. Think a moment friend, it never hurts to ponder.
I am trying to get to a level at which I can make as much money from poker as I do from editing.
I am sure I am playing at least okay. But I have been so unlucky that it's really hurting my confidence. I know what good luck and bad luck feel like. I've had runs of both.
I don't know a better way to get what I want. If I did, I'd be doing it. I don't have the money to play stocks or the currency markets.
If I did, I'd be betting against the dollar and profiting.
I dunno whether you can understand, but it's not being unlucky. It's not winning when you were winning.
Suddenly I have gone from feeling I was going up the slope to feeling I have slid back somewhat.
I desperately want to get up the slope. I have so much tied up in making it that I cannot not make it.
boots sez:
If you were winning, and now you're not winning, and you can tell that it isn't luck, the only thing remaining is that you're fucking it up yourself somehow.
I understand desperate desire. But when you say "I have so much tied up in making it that I cannot not make it" well then I think you may be so desperate that you're lying to yourself, because we are always allowed to fail, fucksake we're even allowed to die.
I've tried to explain to you that needing too much calls bad luck over to sit behind you. Perhaps that makes no sense to you. You need to become a prince who chooses whether or not a gift should be accepted, politely declining gifts that have too many strings attached, rather than a beggar grasping for whatever is offered.
It is only when you can walk away from the table uncaring that you should sit down.
You misunderstood. I know my luck is bad, but I don't know whether that is responsible for how I'm running. That's the problem right there. Am I a decent player getting crushed by variance, or a bad one who was luckier before?
And I don't have the luxury of not caring. You ever been to Brisbane?
boots sez:
Brisbane? No, I've never been outside of North America; it's bad enough here and good enough here, the days when I had money to piss away on travel are temporarily past, and I can only cope with so much variety.
If you can't allow yourself the luxury of not caring, you are rightly well fucked it seems to me.
"Am I a decent player getting crushed by variance, or a bad one who was luckier before?"
It's fairly impossible for me, or you for that matter, to answer that. Moreso because you need so strongly, your need fucks with whatever objectivity you might otherwise muster.
The only suggestion I have, aside from taking a break as mentioned in my other comment, is a slight tweak to how you are doing things.
Since you play the maths, you know what is possible; some cards are in your hand, some cards are showing; the remaining cards are either in another player's hand or in the river.
Now, if you take the maths too far, attempting to combine the possibilities with the behaviours of the other players to assess the probabilities, it opens you to "luckfuck".
If instead you keep track of the cards you know to be out, whether they're in your hand or showing, and consider only the possibilities rather than the probabilities, assuming for money-management purposes that luck will go consistently against you, you are playing as well as it is possibly to play, period; it is the maximally conservative stance and the one least subject to luckfuck.
If you can decipher that I'll be surprised.
I understand it very well. You're advising me to play more nitty.
boots sez:
"nitty", what a silly-sounding word, don't you think? Sounds as if it has to do with baby clothing. Learning these terms in the heat of battle and using them frequently we can't see the silliness in them I suppose.
I don't know from nitty, what I'm suggesting is that you play as if you're paranoid. It should help you survive the bad spot, at least.
If you're "nitty" enough about it, you may find the Lady leaning over to give you a view of her bosoms, She really cannot abide being ignored... if you become good enough at playing coy she'll doubtless fuck your brains out.
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