Thursday 20 December 2007

and worse

ITM in an sng. I have K3.


TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T4-56395985-72
played at "New Haven" for USDTC from 2007-12-19 23:05 until 2007-12-19 23:05
Seat 1: Dr Zen ($4,915 in chips)
Seat 3: RoyzeNoBoyz ($6,795 in chips)
Seat 5: Lec12345 ($3,290 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Dr Zen posts blind ($100), RoyzeNoBoyz posts blind ($200).

PRE-FLOP
Lec12345 folds, Dr Zen bets $500

Standard with a king.

RoyzeNoBoyz calls $400.

FLOP [board cards:4HTDKC ]
Dr Zen bets $900, RoyzeNoBoyz calls $900.

I have to assume I have the best hand. Three possible cases after he calls:

1/ He has a king.
2/ He hit something else.
3/ He has a draw.

In case 1, I am probably doomed to loose more chips because I'm very unlikely to fold top pair.
In case 2, if I check, he might think I was cbetting and then I can win his bet. If I just lead out again, he probably folds.
In case 3, he might semibluff. I am taking a risk if I check, but this guy has played quite aggressively.

TURN [board cards:4HTDKC5H ]
Dr Zen checks, RoyzeNoBoyz bets $5,295 and is all-in, Dr Zen calls $3,415 and is all-in.


He shows JT.

Well, that's great right? I'm miles ahead and he only has five outs.

Surely this time it will...
RIVER [board cards:4HTDKC5HJC ]

Oh no. Silly me.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

boots sez:

"Oh no. Silly me."

Indeed. I'm sorry, Zen. Really. I wish things were going better for you.

On the other hand you've told me often enough that I'm a retarded fuckwit and my theories of luck pale to superstition against the backdrop of the almighty Maths, and to be honest it's difficult as hell not to laugh my ass off here.

I'm pinching myself now, holding a straight and serious face... Zen, the maths are science and statistics and they will hold you good in the long run.