Thursday 19 July 2007

What's the most you can achieve?

There was a dispute one time in 2+2 over whether a top player could score 70% ROI in the Stars 11s. Of course, there's no way even the best player could.

All good players play tight early and open up later. But if you don't pick up hands, you are going to be pushing when you open up. You can pick your spots as well as you like, but you won't always win. You're going to be sent to the rail a decent amount of the time. You will play technically correctly and your opponents won't have read the book.

Being good gives you an edge. But that's all. We're not playing chess here. Having an edge does not make you a guaranteed winner. A master of chess would beat any nine poor players every time. A master of poker will lose some of the time. He can know the game intimately, make the right decisions each time, and still lose.

Everyone runs bad. You have runs of games where you cannot win a hand. You push with AA and 33 calls and flops a 3. You get it all in with the second-nut flush and the other guy has the nuts. You flop a set and he flops a bigger one. Good players do not get away from those hands and they have to lose their stack. It's the definition of good that you get your chips in when you figure to be best.

Some percentage of the time, the good player will get it in early when miles ahead and lose. Some other percentage he will pick up tons of good hands early but won't get paid, not because he doesn't play them well but because no one else has a thing. Some other percentage he won't get a single playable hand until push/fold blinds and the hand he pushes will run into a monster. Some other percentage everyone will be really tight on the bubble except the guy that calls his push.

And don't tell anyone but good players make mistakes too. They misread opponents. They get trapped. They make bad plays.

Sigh. I'm just pissed off because I don't get 70% ROI at the fives. My once proud 40% has slipped down to 32%. If I keep going at this rate, I'll be breakeven by August.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

boots sez:

Poker is a game for the riverboat gamblers of life, who wish to wear tuxedoes and sit under the bright light of the table; the game lacks sufficient leverage for the efficient extraction of money.

Poker is useful for learning emotional self-discipline and for learning how luck actually operates. If you wish to make money in handfuls you need to move elsewhere.

However you will find that luck operates in all arenas.

Dr Zen said...

Luckily, I do not want to make it in handfuls, just small amounts. I think it's possible to extract a small amount now and then.