Okay. This is the worst beat I've ever taken, and I don't think I'll ever take one worse, because I don't think there is anything less likely.
NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $5+$1 (Real Money), #574,044,096
5+0.5 NL Holdem Multi Table Tournament, 11 Jul 2007 7:13 AM ET
Seat 1: linda1377 ($22,706 in chips)
Seat 2: MYL ($3,530 in chips)
Seat 3: The_Ente ($4,440 in chips)
Seat 4: froland13 ($25,017 in chips)
Seat 5: metsku ($10,270 in chips)
Seat 6: Dr Zen ($4,705 in chips)
Seat 7: ttouchallsta ($9,470 in chips)
Seat 8: sg14 ($6,743 in chips)
Seat 9: chikso47 ($850 in chips)
Seat 10: fleusroy ($6,260 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
sg14 posts blind ($150), chikso47 posts blind ($300).
PRE-FLOP
fleusroy folds, linda1377 calls $300, MYL folds, The_Ente folds, froland13 folds, metsku calls $300, Dr Zen bets $4,705 and is all-in
I have KK. I am hoping to be called by one of the suckers who's limped. If not, I'll take a decent pot down. A raise would be be good but I actually have a loose image. I've pushed a couple of times in the past three or four hands, and didn't have the greatest hands.
ttouchallsta folds, sg14 folds, chikso47 folds, linda1377 calls $4,405
and shows KcQc.
I have her dominated even.
metsku folds.
FLOP [board cards 7H,2D,5H ]
With no clubs on the flop, no split pot available, and no cards to a straight for her, she must score runner queens to beat me.
So she is 43/3 * 42/2
or basically 301 to 1, against.
0.3%.
TURN [board cards 7H,2D,5H,QH ]
She scores a queeen but no need to fret. Still 21 to 1 against...
RIVER [board cards 7H,2D,5H,QH,QS ]
OMFG.
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7 comments:
You went all in with $4705?
And lost?
OMFG is putting it lightly.
A
Luckily they were tournament chips, not real dollars. If they'd been dollars, I'd probably need sedating.
LOL!
Whew! I was beginning to wonder if you'd lost your head and caught gambling fever.
A
boots sez:
I have her dominated even.
You let your ego get involved, wtf is this "dominated" shit? Are you fucking arm-wrestling, or are you gambling?
or basically 301 to 1, against.
Trust the maths and this will happen over and over when you least expect it.
The odds are meaningless in the face of events.
Dammit Zen, you're smarter than me, please do figure it out. I'm a fucktard, I had to be shown with real dollars; perhaps you can do better.
boots, "dominated" is not a display of machismo! It means my sidecard beats hers: in this case, it means she does not have two live cards because pairing her king won't help her. Usually, you'd have something like AK over AJ. AK "dominates" AJ because if you flop an ace, it's still ahead.
"this will happen over and over when you least expect it"
One hopes not, boots. Just once every 302 times will be about right.
boots sez:
My error re "dominated" terminology.
"One hopes not, boots. Just once every 302 times will be about right."
That's only over the "long term", whatever the hell the "long term" is. You're being fucked in the "short term", and in the "short term" the maths are absolutely meaningless as is all of probability theory. In the "short term" you need to deal in possibilities, not probabilities.
Using long-term maths to arrive at short-term decisions makes you the worst kind of victim -- they simply do not apply.
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