Monday, 9 July 2007

Sometimes you just have to lose

Sometimes you just know you're going to lose.

I have AhQh in a fivedollar MTT. An EP player raises, a loose goose calls. I push. I'm miles ahead of EP's range. He calls. He turns over AJ.

How can you call an allin with AJ? How is it possible that you can be ahead of what I have?

So the flop comes QT9r. I know I'm going to lose. It doesn't matter that I've flopped top pair. He has an openender and it will obviously come in. The turn's a K and IGH.

I'm playing an SNG. A guy bets 400 at t20 after several limpers. One calls. I have no idea how you call a huge bet like that after limping. Last night a guy called a decent raise from me (I had JJ) with KK. But why just call? I might be willing to call a reraise, and by calling, he invites everyone with a naked ace to get in behind him. Well, of course, weak players think you should slowplay everything, and unfortunately, I flopped all undercards and went for it. I remind myself why I do not like JJ and next time I'm just limping it and dumping it to any action, which has worked well for me.

So the 400-chip caller, it turns out, had A8 and rivered two pair. He called down from the A high flop and got lucky on the river.

So I wake up with AA in the BB at t30 and raise to a couple of hundred, enough to fold out everyone but this same retard. The flop comes 9 high without draws, so I bet about 2/3 pot. He calls. Well, it's possible this guy has top pair, but he could have paired anything or nothing. But when the turn comes another 9, I have a sinking feeling. I consider my options. He could have called PF with A9. I've seen him make a worse call. But do I put him on the hand that beats me and check and see what he does? What if he has some shit like a pair of 7s and puts me on AK that cbetted and then gave up, bets and I fold when I have the best hand?

Generally, with AA, I tend to think of it as a bad hand to hold if I can't get it all in preflop, and I'm willing to dump it if I don't think it's good. I know I should check here. If the tard bets heavily, I can assume I'm beaten. He's probably pissed himself with excitement when the second 9 turns up. If he bets small, I'm probably still ahead and can call down, or defer a decision to the river.

Yesterday, I raised big with KK, and a guy who I had figured for a loose goose called. The flop came with an ace, but I fired in a bet all the same. He just called. This guy would surely raise if he had the ace. I bet again on the turn, which showed three to a suit, and he minraised. I called it because I had picked up a flush draw and the A and K were already out. I just didn't put him on Qhxh. The river was another ace and he pushed. I didn't credit him for the ace or the flush. The betting just didn't look like it. I called and he showed a busted straight draw. He had been trying to bluff with Q5.

So I'm looking at the second nine, and my read is that the guy has A9. If I had stopped to think, I'd have been doubtful that a push would be called by any other hand, but I wasn't thinking. I pushed and he showed me the hand I read him for.

The lesson's easily learned. You have to trust your reads and not get all upset because the very worst has happened. Sometimes the guy with AJ just will get his straight. The poker gods don't always punish them for their awful play. And the guy with A9 will have his day when he cracks your aces. The key for me is that when I read him for doing it, I have to give it up. I've proved to myself that I'll make the tough calls when it smells right. I don't need to tip over from tough into brainless.

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