This is pretty incredible. I'm posting it just so that anyone reading this knows that I know I can be lucky too.
PokerStars Game #17165032972: Tournament #86987073, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/05/03 - 03:05:13 (ET)
Table '86987073 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: dmace16 (3758 in chips)
Seat 6: FR Vessant (2385 in chips)
Seat 7: bama63 (3611 in chips)
Seat 8: akBADseed (3746 in chips)
bama63: posts small blind 100
akBADseed: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ks Ac]
dmace16: folds
FR Vessant: raises 400 to 600
Pretty close to a shove with only 12BB, but these players have been very tight, so I'm not expecting to be called often. If they pick up a hand, they'll likely shove. And I'll call that.
bama63: calls 500
Okay, I'll tell you what he has up front. Kh9h.
So should he call? Fuck no. He's going to be playing king high out of position. It's suited, but I'm basically never paying off a flush unless the board also has an ace (note that he holds the K so any other flush isn't getting paid off). He's behind my entire range here. I've been very very tight, so he can't expect to see anything he beats here. At best I have a small pair and he might outflop me.
akBADseed: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 9d Qd]
This is a decent flop for me, but it's one that I'd expect him to bet at automatically. He's decently aggressive postflop and I expect him to consider whatever he called with preflop to be ahead here or to be able to fold me out.
I am thinking, of course, that he's called with a pair, a big ace, KQ, maybe KJ. Paired flops are generally good for OOP players, because if he bets, I can't call with everything I raised with. Indeed, with the hand I actually did have, I will fold if he bets.
bama63: checks
Now that's odd. I had a feeling about his check and I went with the gut. Normally, you'd cbet here and expect to fold the other guy out.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with checking on this flop for him. I am incredibly unlikely to catch up with him because I'll never have a 9.
FR Vessant: checks
*** TURN *** [9c 9d Qd] [Kd]
bama63: checks
Should he check here? Probably. He has the full and this may well have hit my hand. If it hasn't, I'm not likely to call a bet.
FR Vessant: bets 600
bama63: calls 600
But this is awful. I am never folding AK here but when he calls, I'm worried because there are a few hands out there that beat me. KQ is solidly in his range, JT is possibly there. But he can have KJ too, maybe KT, and it's possible JJ/TT will call here too, although you'd have to think they'd bet the flop.
*** RIVER *** [9c 9d Qd Kd] [Kc]
bama63: checks
Crazy. He has to bet here. What if I have AA? Am I folding that? What if, unlikely as it might be, I have Q9 or T9? Those will be tough to fold.
FR Vessant: bets 800
bama63: calls 800
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FR Vessant: shows [Ks Ac] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)
bama63: shows [Kh 9h] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)
I was astonished when I saw his hand. That really was a huge suckout for me. Preflop was bad for me, because I should have shoved really, and he called a lot wider than I was expecting -- he actually loosened up a ton from here on in, calling a raise a few hands later with 52o. On the flop, I'm crushed. I was lucky he didn't bet, because I'm mostly folding unless it's very small. On the turn, I was both lucky and unlucky. Unlucky to catch up a bit, but lucky that it allowed the huge river suckout.
Saturday, 3 May 2008
OTOH
And having whined, here's the other side of the coin.
PokerStars Game #17164641564: Tournament #86987073, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/03 - 02:28:40 (ET)
Table '86987073 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: lilyannadwn (1545 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: dmace16 (2009 in chips)
Seat 4: xlntttt (1507 in chips)
Seat 5: DaTruth35 (1175 in chips)
Seat 6: FR Vessant (2055 in chips)
Seat 7: bama63 (1550 in chips)
Seat 8: akBADseed (2729 in chips)
Seat 9: Eyedread (930 in chips)
DaTruth35: posts small blind 25
FR Vessant: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [2h 6d]
bama63: folds
akBADseed: folds
Eyedread: calls 50
lilyannadwn: folds
dmace16: folds
xlntttt: folds
DaTruth35: folds
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [3d 2s 6h]
Top and bottom pair is a decent hand but it tends to be overtaken, and it can be tough later in the hand to know where you are. So no slowplaying, just bet out and take it down.
FR Vessant: bets 100
Eyedread: raises 250 to 350
Well, okay. Maybe he has a set of 3s. He's fairly loose so 54s is not impossible. But you can't fold twopair here. He mostly has an overpair or top pair at best. Sometimes he will have 55/44; sometimes nothing at all.
FR Vessant: raises 1655 to 2005 and is all-in
So I shove.
Eyedread: calls 530 and is all-in
And he calls off the rest of his stack with 83s.
*** TURN *** [3d 2s 6h] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [3d 2s 6h Kc] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FR Vessant: shows [2h 6d] (two pair, Sixes and Deuces)
Eyedread: shows [3s 8s] (a pair of Threes)
I half thought the 3 or 8 would come and make me cry, but this time my 5/1 favourite held up.
Limping cards just because they're suited is completely retarded. They rarely ever hit the flop hard enough to continue with, let alone get paid for the many many times you completely miss, and flushes are so obvious when you hit them that most players will not call big bets with them anyway. You end up needing a huge parlay to make anything out of 83s. And calling a shove with middle pair against someone who bet out in the first place is plain terrible. He is never ahead there, and he will very rarely catch up, even if I only have top pair. Which I don't. I'm pretty much never shoving top pair in that spot.
PokerStars Game #17164641564: Tournament #86987073, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/03 - 02:28:40 (ET)
Table '86987073 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: lilyannadwn (1545 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: dmace16 (2009 in chips)
Seat 4: xlntttt (1507 in chips)
Seat 5: DaTruth35 (1175 in chips)
Seat 6: FR Vessant (2055 in chips)
Seat 7: bama63 (1550 in chips)
Seat 8: akBADseed (2729 in chips)
Seat 9: Eyedread (930 in chips)
DaTruth35: posts small blind 25
FR Vessant: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [2h 6d]
bama63: folds
akBADseed: folds
Eyedread: calls 50
lilyannadwn: folds
dmace16: folds
xlntttt: folds
DaTruth35: folds
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [3d 2s 6h]
Top and bottom pair is a decent hand but it tends to be overtaken, and it can be tough later in the hand to know where you are. So no slowplaying, just bet out and take it down.
FR Vessant: bets 100
Eyedread: raises 250 to 350
Well, okay. Maybe he has a set of 3s. He's fairly loose so 54s is not impossible. But you can't fold twopair here. He mostly has an overpair or top pair at best. Sometimes he will have 55/44; sometimes nothing at all.
FR Vessant: raises 1655 to 2005 and is all-in
So I shove.
Eyedread: calls 530 and is all-in
And he calls off the rest of his stack with 83s.
*** TURN *** [3d 2s 6h] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [3d 2s 6h Kc] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FR Vessant: shows [2h 6d] (two pair, Sixes and Deuces)
Eyedread: shows [3s 8s] (a pair of Threes)
I half thought the 3 or 8 would come and make me cry, but this time my 5/1 favourite held up.
Limping cards just because they're suited is completely retarded. They rarely ever hit the flop hard enough to continue with, let alone get paid for the many many times you completely miss, and flushes are so obvious when you hit them that most players will not call big bets with them anyway. You end up needing a huge parlay to make anything out of 83s. And calling a shove with middle pair against someone who bet out in the first place is plain terrible. He is never ahead there, and he will very rarely catch up, even if I only have top pair. Which I don't. I'm pretty much never shoving top pair in that spot.
Please not a 6
Tendollar tourneys just aren't working out for me. This is a terrible table, full of very bad players, so I should make money.
PokerStars Game #17164225231: Tournament #86984081, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/03 - 01:54:51 (ET)
Table '86984081 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: dboy118111 (2305 in chips)
Seat 3: FR Vessant (2915 in chips)
Seat 5: Elbowman (1450 in chips)
Seat 6: Liminality (2980 in chips)
Seat 8: KW11 (690 in chips)
Seat 9: WazzleDazzle (3160 in chips)
dboy118111: posts small blind 50
FR Vessant: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [3d 4d]
Elbowman: folds
Liminality: folds
KW11: folds
WazzleDazzle: folds
dboy118111: calls 50
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 6d 3c]
dboy118111: bets 300
FR Vessant: calls 300
He probably has a 6. He can have a draw too. It's a fairly loose call, and in retrospect, I could easily have folded here.
*** TURN *** [5c 6d 3c] [3s]
dboy118111: bets 400
FR Vessant: raises 600 to 1000
dboy118111: calls 600
I almost certainly have the best hand here, and will need to be very unlucky to lose. I probably should have raised a bit more but I am putting him only on TP, which is making a mistake against this raise. Not that the hand he actually had isn't making one.
*** RIVER *** [5c 6d 3c 3s] [6s]
My heart just sank. I know I will be beaten, but the pot is so big I have to call a push in case he has an overpair or 44, which is possible.
dboy118111: bets 905 and is all-in
FR Vessant: calls 905
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dboy118111: shows [7d 6h] (a full house, Sixes full of Threes)
FR Vessant: shows [3d 4d] (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)
Well, I could have avoided the trouble by folding on the flop but meh. This time the guy had six outs to beat me, but by fuck, I could do with winning a few this week.
***
The thing is, over the long term, this is what theoretically makes you money: crap players get their money in way behind. Like the guy in a 6.5 who called a shove with K8s after limping. I had AJs. I should win that 63% of the time, and I probably do, but when the 37% coincides with your putting 90% of your stack in, and the 63% less valuable spots, you lose money even so.
The guy with six outs loses one time in 7.5. But that one time he pretty much stacks me, and the other 6.5 will be times when someone has six outs, misses and doesn't pay me a cent.
Sigh. If the river had been a 7, for instance, I would have stacked him, and likely been $50 better off. Given that my average profit from a tenner is two bucks, you can see that a $60 swing really hurts.
PokerStars Game #17164225231: Tournament #86984081, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/03 - 01:54:51 (ET)
Table '86984081 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: dboy118111 (2305 in chips)
Seat 3: FR Vessant (2915 in chips)
Seat 5: Elbowman (1450 in chips)
Seat 6: Liminality (2980 in chips)
Seat 8: KW11 (690 in chips)
Seat 9: WazzleDazzle (3160 in chips)
dboy118111: posts small blind 50
FR Vessant: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [3d 4d]
Elbowman: folds
Liminality: folds
KW11: folds
WazzleDazzle: folds
dboy118111: calls 50
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 6d 3c]
dboy118111: bets 300
FR Vessant: calls 300
He probably has a 6. He can have a draw too. It's a fairly loose call, and in retrospect, I could easily have folded here.
*** TURN *** [5c 6d 3c] [3s]
dboy118111: bets 400
FR Vessant: raises 600 to 1000
dboy118111: calls 600
I almost certainly have the best hand here, and will need to be very unlucky to lose. I probably should have raised a bit more but I am putting him only on TP, which is making a mistake against this raise. Not that the hand he actually had isn't making one.
*** RIVER *** [5c 6d 3c 3s] [6s]
My heart just sank. I know I will be beaten, but the pot is so big I have to call a push in case he has an overpair or 44, which is possible.
dboy118111: bets 905 and is all-in
FR Vessant: calls 905
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dboy118111: shows [7d 6h] (a full house, Sixes full of Threes)
FR Vessant: shows [3d 4d] (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)
Well, I could have avoided the trouble by folding on the flop but meh. This time the guy had six outs to beat me, but by fuck, I could do with winning a few this week.
***
The thing is, over the long term, this is what theoretically makes you money: crap players get their money in way behind. Like the guy in a 6.5 who called a shove with K8s after limping. I had AJs. I should win that 63% of the time, and I probably do, but when the 37% coincides with your putting 90% of your stack in, and the 63% less valuable spots, you lose money even so.
The guy with six outs loses one time in 7.5. But that one time he pretty much stacks me, and the other 6.5 will be times when someone has six outs, misses and doesn't pay me a cent.
Sigh. If the river had been a 7, for instance, I would have stacked him, and likely been $50 better off. Given that my average profit from a tenner is two bucks, you can see that a $60 swing really hurts.
Two outs is more than enough
Same tourney. This is why my results have been so ordinary lately.
PokerStars Game #17158770334: Tournament #86955430, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/05/02 - 20:51:36 (ET)
Table '86955430 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: FR Vessant (4750 in chips)
Seat 4: wittuz76 (2150 in chips)
Seat 5: ps1west (1298 in chips)
Seat 6: Beefy Lad (2455 in chips)
Seat 8: wellunger (670 in chips)
Seat 9: EVIL E2612 (2177 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts the ante 25
wittuz76: posts the ante 25
ps1west: posts the ante 25
Beefy Lad: posts the ante 25
wellunger: posts the ante 25
EVIL E2612: posts the ante 25
Beefy Lad: posts small blind 200
wellunger: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Qs Qc]
EVIL E2612: folds
FR Vessant: raises 4325 to 4725 and is all-in
No need for anything fancy. They're short enough to call with wide enough ranges to make inducing a shove unnecessary.
wittuz76: folds
ps1west: calls 1273 and is all-in
A terrible call. He has KJ.
Beefy Lad: folds
wellunger: calls 245 and is all-in
And so does he.
*** FLOP *** [2d 8d Jh]
Well that's not good but at least it's not a
*** TURN *** [2d 8d Jh] [Kc]
Oh dear.
I was a 4/1 favourite before the flop and nearly 6/1 after it.
But there's no lesson to be learned here. Bad players make bad calls and get lucky sometimes. Because they are taking bad odds, their luck will run out. And of course for both these guys it did run out.
I did learn something from this tourney though. I haven't been going well in the money, particularly heads up, and I got to HU with 3K. In a regular, the blinds are usually low enough for me to outplay the other guy. But I was card dead and panicked, calling a push for 3ishK with T9o. The other guy's QJ held up. The lesson learned is that you are going to feel a lot worse getting it in behind and realising you shouldn't have than you would if you made the right play and it didn't work out.
PokerStars Game #17158770334: Tournament #86955430, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/05/02 - 20:51:36 (ET)
Table '86955430 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: FR Vessant (4750 in chips)
Seat 4: wittuz76 (2150 in chips)
Seat 5: ps1west (1298 in chips)
Seat 6: Beefy Lad (2455 in chips)
Seat 8: wellunger (670 in chips)
Seat 9: EVIL E2612 (2177 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts the ante 25
wittuz76: posts the ante 25
ps1west: posts the ante 25
Beefy Lad: posts the ante 25
wellunger: posts the ante 25
EVIL E2612: posts the ante 25
Beefy Lad: posts small blind 200
wellunger: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Qs Qc]
EVIL E2612: folds
FR Vessant: raises 4325 to 4725 and is all-in
No need for anything fancy. They're short enough to call with wide enough ranges to make inducing a shove unnecessary.
wittuz76: folds
ps1west: calls 1273 and is all-in
A terrible call. He has KJ.
Beefy Lad: folds
wellunger: calls 245 and is all-in
And so does he.
*** FLOP *** [2d 8d Jh]
Well that's not good but at least it's not a
*** TURN *** [2d 8d Jh] [Kc]
Oh dear.
I was a 4/1 favourite before the flop and nearly 6/1 after it.
But there's no lesson to be learned here. Bad players make bad calls and get lucky sometimes. Because they are taking bad odds, their luck will run out. And of course for both these guys it did run out.
I did learn something from this tourney though. I haven't been going well in the money, particularly heads up, and I got to HU with 3K. In a regular, the blinds are usually low enough for me to outplay the other guy. But I was card dead and panicked, calling a push for 3ishK with T9o. The other guy's QJ held up. The lesson learned is that you are going to feel a lot worse getting it in behind and realising you shouldn't have than you would if you made the right play and it didn't work out.
Bad bluff
Here's another fairly obviously bluff. Villain is loose and bad. I gained my stack with TT that hit a set and an AA hand in which AJ tried to push me off a KQx flop and then called my shove.
PokerStars Game #17158306532: Tournament #86955430, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/02 - 20:30:30 (ET)
Table '86955430 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: burschikos (1625 in chips)
Seat 2: FR Vessant (3525 in chips)
Seat 4: wittuz76 (1330 in chips)
Seat 5: ps1west (2310 in chips)
Seat 6: Beefy Lad (1340 in chips)
Seat 8: wellunger (570 in chips)
Seat 9: EVIL E2612 (2800 in chips)
burschikos: posts small blind 50
FR Vessant: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ac 2h]
wittuz76: folds
ps1west: calls 100
Beefy Lad: folds
wellunger: folds
EVIL E2612: folds
burschikos: folds
FR Vessant: checks
Just check with the raggy ace. Too deep to do anything else and I don't like raising OOP.
*** FLOP *** [8d Jc 2c]
FR Vessant: checks
ps1west: bets 100
FR Vessant: calls 100
I expect he has nothing here, so I peel and see what he does on the turn. Folding is okay, but I did pair and his minbet suggests he wasn't confident in his hand and just wanted to fold me out. I think I can play this hand quite well from here, because I'm putting him on a KT type hand.
*** TURN *** [8d Jc 2c] [As]
FR Vessant: checks
ps1west: checks
So I make two pair and I'm definitely best here in my view. I check, hoping he will fire again. But he doesn't. Well, he clearly doesn't have a better two pair here.
*** RIVER *** [8d Jc 2c As] [Js]
FR Vessant: bets 200
I decide to make some value out of my hand. I'm nearly always still best here and I hope to be called by 8x or a small pair that thinks I'm bluffing.
ps1west: raises 300 to 500
So he bluffs.
I simply do not put him on a jack because his flop bet was so weak, nor an ace, because he checked behind the turn. I could sometimes be beaten by Jx here, or by A9+, but I very much doubt it. I think he has 8x and doesn't put me on the ace or possibly a small pair that thinks that I'm bluffing the riv.
FR Vessant: calls 300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ps1west: shows [3h 3d] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
I wouldn't have turned this hand into a bluff on the river. I may be bluffing, but I may also have something with some value (which of course I did). He could show his hand down for 200 and that will get value from bluffs. The way he played it, I need to be bluffing pretty often to make him good.
PokerStars Game #17158306532: Tournament #86955430, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/02 - 20:30:30 (ET)
Table '86955430 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: burschikos (1625 in chips)
Seat 2: FR Vessant (3525 in chips)
Seat 4: wittuz76 (1330 in chips)
Seat 5: ps1west (2310 in chips)
Seat 6: Beefy Lad (1340 in chips)
Seat 8: wellunger (570 in chips)
Seat 9: EVIL E2612 (2800 in chips)
burschikos: posts small blind 50
FR Vessant: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ac 2h]
wittuz76: folds
ps1west: calls 100
Beefy Lad: folds
wellunger: folds
EVIL E2612: folds
burschikos: folds
FR Vessant: checks
Just check with the raggy ace. Too deep to do anything else and I don't like raising OOP.
*** FLOP *** [8d Jc 2c]
FR Vessant: checks
ps1west: bets 100
FR Vessant: calls 100
I expect he has nothing here, so I peel and see what he does on the turn. Folding is okay, but I did pair and his minbet suggests he wasn't confident in his hand and just wanted to fold me out. I think I can play this hand quite well from here, because I'm putting him on a KT type hand.
*** TURN *** [8d Jc 2c] [As]
FR Vessant: checks
ps1west: checks
So I make two pair and I'm definitely best here in my view. I check, hoping he will fire again. But he doesn't. Well, he clearly doesn't have a better two pair here.
*** RIVER *** [8d Jc 2c As] [Js]
FR Vessant: bets 200
I decide to make some value out of my hand. I'm nearly always still best here and I hope to be called by 8x or a small pair that thinks I'm bluffing.
ps1west: raises 300 to 500
So he bluffs.
I simply do not put him on a jack because his flop bet was so weak, nor an ace, because he checked behind the turn. I could sometimes be beaten by Jx here, or by A9+, but I very much doubt it. I think he has 8x and doesn't put me on the ace or possibly a small pair that thinks that I'm bluffing the riv.
FR Vessant: calls 300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ps1west: shows [3h 3d] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
I wouldn't have turned this hand into a bluff on the river. I may be bluffing, but I may also have something with some value (which of course I did). He could show his hand down for 200 and that will get value from bluffs. The way he played it, I need to be bluffing pretty often to make him good.
Thursday, 1 May 2008
Calling station
Here's some high-variance play that I don't recommend.
I have a strong read on jawilmes. He's a LAGgy, not very smart player, and I've picked a few things up while watching this tourney.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6244268587: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (47526848), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:39:27 ET - 2008/05/01
Seat 1: basatagirl (3,000)
Seat 4: Jamarekk (1,566)
Seat 7: PisquitoSour (4,676)
Seat 8: jawilmes (4,258)
jawilmes posts the small blind of 150
basatagirl posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jh Ts]
Jamarekk folds
PisquitoSour folds
jawilmes raises to 600
basatagirl calls 300
I call because his minraise means one of two things: he's "trapping" with what he thinks is a decent hand, or he's noticed I'm playing tight and wants to win the blinds cheaply.
Mostly, it's the second. So I call the minraise. I'll fold if I don't like the action on the flop. Against a more straightforward player, the call is much tougher.
*** FLOP *** [5s Qd Th]
jawilmes bets 600
basatagirl calls 600
I'm pretty sure my hand is good here. When he has something, he's been betting decent amounts. This smells a lot like a bluff. I'm certainly not folding middle pair without strong reason to think I'm losing.
*** TURN *** [5s Qd Th] [Ac]
jawilmes checks
basatagirl checks
He confirms he was bluffing by checking the turn. I still want to check it down though, because my hand has value at showdown that can be lost if he pushes and bluffs me off it. On many river cards, I'm going to be happy to call a bet.
*** RIVER *** [5s Qd Th Ac] [Ad]
jawilmes bets 900
basatagirl calls 900
That's a terrible card to bluff with. If he wasn't confident on the turn, he can't be now. It's conceivable that he has Qx and was scared by the ace on the turn, but it's much more likely he had nothing. He thinks I don't have an ace (didn't bet turn) and could have paired the flop or begun with a small pair. This is not a good spot for a bluff though, because his story is just not credible for his kind of player.
This is why. If he was a tight player who I thought had a clue, his bet would look like a value bet. IOW, I'd likely read it as a smallish bet from a player with a decent queen, who figured that I might have that pair or a weak queen, and would possibly pay off a small bet. It's called a "value" bet because you attempt to get value for your hand the times it is better than your opponent's, which you figure it will often be. What you don't want to happen is to let me show down cheaply if I would pay for the privilege. But you don't put in too large a bet, because you want to be called.
But this guy has no concept of a value bet. If he has it, he bets it hard. He doesn't think what I might have. All he can see is his own hands. He is trying to steal the pot cheaply.
You should often play very weakly postflop in STTs, but here I had a clear read and the betting indicated a bluff very strongly. So I snapped it off:
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jawilmes shows [8d 4d] a pair of Aces
I don't recommend that a beginner plays this way. In an STT, you need to play tightly because of ICM and I often fold when I'm reasonably sure the other guy is bluffing because the chips will really hurt to lose. But when your experience allows you to read a player well, sometimes you need to call it down when you know you're good.
I have a strong read on jawilmes. He's a LAGgy, not very smart player, and I've picked a few things up while watching this tourney.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6244268587: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (47526848), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:39:27 ET - 2008/05/01
Seat 1: basatagirl (3,000)
Seat 4: Jamarekk (1,566)
Seat 7: PisquitoSour (4,676)
Seat 8: jawilmes (4,258)
jawilmes posts the small blind of 150
basatagirl posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Jh Ts]
Jamarekk folds
PisquitoSour folds
jawilmes raises to 600
basatagirl calls 300
I call because his minraise means one of two things: he's "trapping" with what he thinks is a decent hand, or he's noticed I'm playing tight and wants to win the blinds cheaply.
Mostly, it's the second. So I call the minraise. I'll fold if I don't like the action on the flop. Against a more straightforward player, the call is much tougher.
*** FLOP *** [5s Qd Th]
jawilmes bets 600
basatagirl calls 600
I'm pretty sure my hand is good here. When he has something, he's been betting decent amounts. This smells a lot like a bluff. I'm certainly not folding middle pair without strong reason to think I'm losing.
*** TURN *** [5s Qd Th] [Ac]
jawilmes checks
basatagirl checks
He confirms he was bluffing by checking the turn. I still want to check it down though, because my hand has value at showdown that can be lost if he pushes and bluffs me off it. On many river cards, I'm going to be happy to call a bet.
*** RIVER *** [5s Qd Th Ac] [Ad]
jawilmes bets 900
basatagirl calls 900
That's a terrible card to bluff with. If he wasn't confident on the turn, he can't be now. It's conceivable that he has Qx and was scared by the ace on the turn, but it's much more likely he had nothing. He thinks I don't have an ace (didn't bet turn) and could have paired the flop or begun with a small pair. This is not a good spot for a bluff though, because his story is just not credible for his kind of player.
This is why. If he was a tight player who I thought had a clue, his bet would look like a value bet. IOW, I'd likely read it as a smallish bet from a player with a decent queen, who figured that I might have that pair or a weak queen, and would possibly pay off a small bet. It's called a "value" bet because you attempt to get value for your hand the times it is better than your opponent's, which you figure it will often be. What you don't want to happen is to let me show down cheaply if I would pay for the privilege. But you don't put in too large a bet, because you want to be called.
But this guy has no concept of a value bet. If he has it, he bets it hard. He doesn't think what I might have. All he can see is his own hands. He is trying to steal the pot cheaply.
You should often play very weakly postflop in STTs, but here I had a clear read and the betting indicated a bluff very strongly. So I snapped it off:
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jawilmes shows [8d 4d] a pair of Aces
I don't recommend that a beginner plays this way. In an STT, you need to play tightly because of ICM and I often fold when I'm reasonably sure the other guy is bluffing because the chips will really hurt to lose. But when your experience allows you to read a player well, sometimes you need to call it down when you know you're good.
How not to check it down
Here is how not to check it down.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6243960089: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (47524616), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:58:16 ET - 2008/05/01
Seat 1: LDCrayne (660)
Seat 3: JDaGr8 (4,070)
Seat 4: mikesworld (5,870)
Seat 5: basatagirl (2,900)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 120
LDCrayne posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kh 6h]
JDaGr8 folds
mikesworld has 15 seconds left to act
mikesworld calls 240
basatagirl calls 120
I just call because I'm hoping shorty will push and we'll check it down and knock him out.
LDCrayne raises to 660, and is all in
mikesworld calls 420
basatagirl calls 420
So I call and obv. so does the other guy. He seems to have understood not to a/ bet me out of the pot first time round and b/ shove and make me fold after the other guy pushes.
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2c Qs]
I have top pair but I don't bet. The big stack has shown every sign of being retarded, and I'd hate for him to push and make me fold.
But truth is, even if he did, I could call, because I'd need to be super unlucky to bubble.
Anyway, I don't mind checking it down. Just in case allin guy has KT and the other guy would have made two pair on the turn or river.
basatagirl checks
mikesworld checks
*** TURN *** [Kd 2c Qs] [7h]
basatagirl checks
mikesworld has 15 seconds left to act
mikesworld checks
But really, thinking about it. I'd need allin guy to have K7 and retard to have Q2, or some similar parlay, to bubble. Remember, if bigstack beats us both, I come third because I started with more chips. Still, best not to fold the other guy out, just in case.
*** RIVER *** [Kd 2c Qs 7h] [Qd]
basatagirl checks
mikesworld bets 960
basatagirl folds
So he has to have a queen, right?
Uncalled bet of 960 returned to mikesworld
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mikesworld shows [Ac Td] a pair of Queens
No.
He bet me out of the sidepot with no pair.
I mean, wtf? Did he think that I call with a worse hand? Does he think, hmmm, if I fold out a better hand, I'll be ahead of the other guy and win? Well, he must.
LDCrayne shows [As 2h] two pair, Queens and Twos
But he doesn't beat him.
And I went on to bubble. In a just universe, the retard would have bubbled himself. And he nearly did. But he sucked out on the key hand, and finally sucked out on me when I pushed over a SB limp with 33 and his QJ caught a J.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6243960089: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (47524616), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:58:16 ET - 2008/05/01
Seat 1: LDCrayne (660)
Seat 3: JDaGr8 (4,070)
Seat 4: mikesworld (5,870)
Seat 5: basatagirl (2,900)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 120
LDCrayne posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kh 6h]
JDaGr8 folds
mikesworld has 15 seconds left to act
mikesworld calls 240
basatagirl calls 120
I just call because I'm hoping shorty will push and we'll check it down and knock him out.
LDCrayne raises to 660, and is all in
mikesworld calls 420
basatagirl calls 420
So I call and obv. so does the other guy. He seems to have understood not to a/ bet me out of the pot first time round and b/ shove and make me fold after the other guy pushes.
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2c Qs]
I have top pair but I don't bet. The big stack has shown every sign of being retarded, and I'd hate for him to push and make me fold.
But truth is, even if he did, I could call, because I'd need to be super unlucky to bubble.
Anyway, I don't mind checking it down. Just in case allin guy has KT and the other guy would have made two pair on the turn or river.
basatagirl checks
mikesworld checks
*** TURN *** [Kd 2c Qs] [7h]
basatagirl checks
mikesworld has 15 seconds left to act
mikesworld checks
But really, thinking about it. I'd need allin guy to have K7 and retard to have Q2, or some similar parlay, to bubble. Remember, if bigstack beats us both, I come third because I started with more chips. Still, best not to fold the other guy out, just in case.
*** RIVER *** [Kd 2c Qs 7h] [Qd]
basatagirl checks
mikesworld bets 960
basatagirl folds
So he has to have a queen, right?
Uncalled bet of 960 returned to mikesworld
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mikesworld shows [Ac Td] a pair of Queens
No.
He bet me out of the sidepot with no pair.
I mean, wtf? Did he think that I call with a worse hand? Does he think, hmmm, if I fold out a better hand, I'll be ahead of the other guy and win? Well, he must.
LDCrayne shows [As 2h] two pair, Queens and Twos
But he doesn't beat him.
And I went on to bubble. In a just universe, the retard would have bubbled himself. And he nearly did. But he sucked out on the key hand, and finally sucked out on me when I pushed over a SB limp with 33 and his QJ caught a J.
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