Sunday, 22 March 2009

The long term is coming too slowly

You know, wtf, maybe I actually am the unluckiest poker player on earth? I mean, someone has to be. I dunno. Here are three consecutive hands I played. I'm not shitting you. It was fold fold fold till these hands.


PokerStars Game #26223426882: Tournament #149813846, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/03/22 0:31:23 ET
Table '149813846 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: FR Vessant (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: utgfather (1410 in chips)
Seat 3: saintsfan20 (1760 in chips)
Seat 4: marios198212 (1200 in chips)
Seat 5: Surffog (1510 in chips)
Seat 6: mf115 (1450 in chips)
Seat 7: 572drht (1660 in chips)
Seat 8: Dodo222 (1420 in chips)
Seat 9: luvbizr (1590 in chips)
luvbizr: posts small blind 10
FR Vessant: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [5h 5d]
utgfather: folds
saintsfan20: folds
marios198212: calls 20
Surffog: calls 20
mf115: calls 20
572drht: folds
Dodo222: folds
luvbizr: calls 10
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [Jh 5s Ad]

So, nice flop. Not only do I have a set but there's an ace out there. Very sweet.

luvbizr: checks
FR Vessant: bets 60

I bet to build the pot. It's not a huge bet but there aren't too many draws.

marios198212: folds
Surffog: calls 60

I'll tell you now that this fish had QJ. So okay he has middle pair and I want these retards to call with it, but maybe it might cross his mind I might have an ace?

mf115: folds
luvbizr: folds
*** TURN *** [Jh 5s Ad] [Jd]
FR Vessant: bets 140
Surffog: calls 140

His play here sucks big style. Why not raise?


*** RIVER *** [Jh 5s Ad Jd] [Qc]

And of course the cunt hits his four-outer.
FR Vessant: bets 320
Surffog: raises 970 to 1290 and is all-in


There's no way I can fold here. Of course I'm aware that he has QJ a lot here, and my heart sank when he shoved, but he can have other Js, AQ and a straight came in, so I can't fold.

FR Vessant: calls 960 and is all-in
So anyway, next hand.

PokerStars Game #26223527147: Tournament #149813980, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/03/22 0:36:08 ET
Table '149813980 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: mf115 (1370 in chips)
Seat 2: Krux100 (3050 in chips)
Seat 3: Totton (1860 in chips)
Seat 5: poopratmcgee (1190 in chips)
Seat 6: Jebus rulez (1520 in chips)
Seat 7: Jonesy1267 (1530 in chips)
Seat 8: Dodo222 (1510 in chips)
Seat 9: FR Vessant (1470 in chips)
poopratmcgee: posts small blind 10
Jebus rulez: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Tc Td]
Jonesy1267: folds
Dodo222: folds
FR Vessant: raises 40 to 60

Standard raise.

mf115: folds
Krux100: folds
Totton: folds
poopratmcgee: calls 50
Jebus rulez: folds
*** FLOP *** [7d Th Qd]

Nice!

poopratmcgee: checks
FR Vessant: bets 100

I build the pot, of course.

poopratmcgee: calls 100

I'll tell you right now he has 99. To call here, you have to be either a/ putting me on AK, which is dumb, because that's the only unpaired hand in a reasonable raising range that missed, b/ putting me on a smaller pair, which is at least more reasonable, but still, much less of nearly everyone's raising range, or c/ entirely unconcerned by my hand.

All three cases would only be considered viable by a complete drooler.

*** TURN *** [7d Th Qd] [Js]
poopratmcgee: checks
FR Vessant: bets 340
poopratmcgee: calls 340

So now I've bet the pot, and the guy thinks that his gutshot is worth calling with! So he wasn't case (a) because AK made a straight. He can't really be case (b) because you wouldn't expect 88 or 66 to bet into this (or pretty much any other) board. So he's probably (c). Not folding because he has a draw. He doesn't care (probably doesn't know) that it's a longshot.
*** RIVER *** [7d Th Qd Js] [8c]
poopratmcgee: checks

WHAT THE FUCK??!!

I am always checking behind on this river, unless I have AK. There is just no way I ever have a hand that will bet that doesn't beat his idiot straight.

FR Vessant: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
poopratmcgee: shows [9h 9d] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
FR Vessant: mucks hand
poopratmcgee collected 1020 from pot

So at least I lost the minimum.

In the next hand, the betting is a bit weird because my hand slipped on the slider and I misclicked a huge raise. Still, it just made what happened even more ridiculous.

PokerStars Game #26223584076: Tournament #149813641, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/03/22 0:38:50 ET
Table '149813641 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ManPower47 (1360 in chips)
Seat 2: Castoro56 (1360 in chips)
Seat 3: Guillermo333 (890 in chips)
Seat 4: osx22 (2415 in chips)
Seat 5: Gadgetguy0 (1425 in chips)
Seat 6: millsteve (1415 in chips)
Seat 7: FR Vessant (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: zoolgreek (1275 in chips)
Seat 9: AKB_777 (1860 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 15
zoolgreek: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Kc]
AKB_777: folds
ManPower47: calls 30
Castoro56: folds
Guillermo333: folds
osx22: folds
Gadgetguy0: folds
millsteve: calls 30
FR Vessant: raises 180 to 210

Whoops. Was aiming for about 150. Never mind though.

zoolgreek: folds
ManPower47: calls 180
millsteve: calls 180

wat

It's amazing that two guys can have hands that they consider a/ good enough to call a big raise, but b/ not big enough to just shove in here. The second guy in particular might as well put up a sign saying "I suck".

*** FLOP *** [Kh 9c Ts]

Well, I hit top pair but I can't love this flop, because it hits a lot of the hands retards limp and call with hard, like KT/K9/QJ/TT/99. But it also hits KQ/KJ, which villains like to overplay, and hands that have draws that these clowns think they can bluff with, like AQ/AJ, and bits and pieces like JJ that are hard to fold on this flop.

FR Vessant: bets 360

So actually, my bet is a bit small because it's pretty drawy, but I guess I leave myself room to fold on really bad turns.

ManPower47: folds
millsteve: raises 845 to 1205 and is all-in

Like I say, these tards can have a lot of hands that are behind me here, but I did think straight away that I would be beat. I do think there's too much in his range that I'm still ahead of to fold this, but it's closer than most people think.

Anyway, obv. he had KT, and you're left once more thinking, can't these clowns just get what they deserve when they call big raises with hands that are very likely dominated? But against me, they seem to buck the odds just that bit too often.

FR Vessant: calls 845
FR Vessant said, "omg"

sssshhh. But you can understand, right? How can he be in the hand with KT? How can he limpcall such a big bet with it? It's really uberlucky to hit the flop like he did. I guess these people don't appreciate that but fuck, doesn't experience teach them anything? Well, one guesses that the many times this complete fuckwit misses when he does this, and they will be many, are made up for by this one lucky hit. Hey, he doubled, so it must have been a good play, right?

But it's not just that. If it was, well, you could live with it, somewhat, and I'd not be on a huge losing streak. It's the stuff like, I raise with TT, a retarded lag 3bets, and he's 3betting maybe 20%, but when I shove, he shows me AA; I shove BvB with 11BB, not too badly set in the tourney, with A4, and get snapcalled -- for 11BB! -- with A7. Well, okay, I expected that (and it was still a shove), but it sucked that the board ran out without splitting. And it's stuff like shoving A5 with 1K chips at t150, the BB snaps you with QJ and hits his Q. You shove over a BvB raise from a guy who plays far too many hands with AK, and he shows KK.

This is just in eight games! This is not a long session. No tilt, no dodgy plays. Just shit.

So I'm quitting blogging poker, because I'm pretty close to quitting playing it. I'm just not temperamentally suited to it. I am far better at poker than the people I'm playing but I can't win. That happens in poker, and you know that in the long term, your edge will tell, but the long term just doesn't come quickly enough when you are suffering a few games at a time.

7 comments:

nobody said...

"There's no way I can fold here. Of course I'm aware that he has QJ a lot here, and my heart sank when he shoved, but he can have other Js, AQ and a straight came in, so I can't fold."

That's exactly the kind of shit keeps your thumb sore. "I can't fold." Fucksake, of course you can fold, there's no fucking gun to your head.

Did you actually sit there and think that? "I can't fold"? Jayzus, if you thought that and didn't fold, the world is holding you down over a barrel to be fucked at will.

If you think "I can't fold" you need to fucking fold. Especially if your "heart sank when he shoved". If you think "I should fold" then maybe you should shove.

Gambling isn't about doing what the cons have convinced you that you must do, it's about doing the right thing next. They've convinced you that you must stand up and fire your weapon. Well you can do that and take a bullet, or pick a fucking flower because that's what is next.

You'll never be a successful gambler until you learn how not to be an automoton. The game is rigged, and the rules about the best way to play it are made up for suckers.

If it wasn't about playing your gut or your heart or fuckever you want to name it, everyone could just send his computer to sit at the table and they'd all collect every fucking pot.

"I am far better at poker than the people I'm playing but I can't win. That happens in poker, and you know that in the long term, your edge will tell, but the long term just doesn't come quickly enough when you are suffering a few games at a time."

I told you a fucking year ago that all that long run shite is just that, the long run is the summation of all the short runs and the imagination of all the suckers at the table.

Your study and other forms of poker indoctrination have made you predictable from the minute you sit down at the table.

Dr Zen said...

"Can't fold" = "wouldn't be right to fold"

learning to win at STTs includes learning not to do what's obvious to you, because it's often wrong.

nobody said...

I'm glad you've mastered it.

Dr Zen said...

Whether I've mastered it or not, relying on what seems right is what makes my opponents lose.

nobody said...

It isn't about making your opponents lose.

The bunch sitting around the table is irrelevant. They are not your opponents, you have only one opponent and it encompases the table and all who sit at it.

You are relevant, the river is relevant, and that's more or less the lot.

Feel free to tell me about relying on what seems right when your heart is sinking, where does this "right" come from? Some book you've read that programs you to become dinner for its author?

Dr Zen said...

LOL. Yes, okay, I will start only looking at my hand and not caring about my opponents' from now on. That's a good way to play poker.

Dude, until I learn how to bend the universe to my will, in which case I will in any event give up poker, I will stick to doing what I think is right, and let the rivers do what they will.

nobody said...

"...until I learn how to bend the universe to my will..."

That's it, is it? You want to bend the universe to your will? You've created the fucking thing from whole cloth and made it so convincing you've forgotten who's in charge, and now you're looking for a way to unlock the door from inside while turning the key over in your hand and wondering what the fuck it is?

"So I'm quitting blogging poker, because I'm pretty close to quitting playing it. I'm just not temperamentally suited to it."

No shit, you've created a self with so much brilliance that it can't recognize that the task is too simple to be done.