How not to fit or fold

Here's a hand that demonstrates one of the rare occasions you should not play fit or fold after the flop. I think folding this flop would be a mistake. It's questionable whether raising or calling is the right play, but this is how I generally play mid pairs that I've decided are good. My play preflop is also questionable. I'd normally fold--I don't usually get all loose because I have a big stack (I was doubled up with AK on an A high flop by a guy with AQ. Given that the flop was AJx, I think his play sucks, but it was early, so he probably wasn't clear how tight I am. Villain has played three of ten hands, raising two.


Full Tilt Poker Game #7597807180: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (57795428), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:15:38 ET - 2008/08/10
Seat 1: willebones (1,355)
Seat 3: Wingnut77 (915)
Seat 4: mike5910 (1,740)
Seat 5: preno51 (2,310)
Seat 6: mike7050 (1,095)
Seat 7: basatagirl (3,060)
Seat 8: blankchocolate (1,435)
Seat 9: tibblewinks (1,590)
preno51 posts the small blind of 30
mike7050 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [7c 7h]
basatagirl calls 60

Bit dangerous to limp this because the table's been a bit aggro but

blankchocolate folds
tibblewinks raises to 180

Meh.

willebones folds
Wingnut77 folds
mike5910 folds
preno51 folds
mike7050 has 15 seconds left to act
mike7050 folds
basatagirl calls 120

It's a thin call and I'll be OOP for the whole hand, so I've made the textbook bad play that you try to avoid by folding small pairs UTG! But I have it heads up with a hand that could easily be best. Also, his raise size is bad, so I can probably put his early looseness down to being bad, rather than getting good cards.

*** FLOP *** [4h Kd 6d]

I may well be good on this flop though. Here I'll look at what he bets and go from there. There's 330 in the pot.

basatagirl checks
tibblewinks has 15 seconds left to act
tibblewinks bets 180

I don't think he has a king. With the flush draw out there, most players would bet more. This is basically half the pot, because with Full Tilt's new bet slider, this is two clicks of the mouse.

basatagirl calls 180
*** TURN *** [4h Kd 6d] [3h]
basatagirl checks
tibblewinks checks

Now I know I'm ahead. I could have donked the turn but it's safe so I prefer to let him bet at it again. When he doesn't, I know I am ahead.

You could bet the turn, but if called, you may be in a tough spot on the river. You won't really want to bet a lot of rivers, but if you don't, you can be faced with a bet you're really not keen on calling. So I keep the pot small. I don't mind if he tries to steal again. I'll call another small bet.

*** RIVER *** [4h Kd 6d 3h] [9s]

That 9 is not likely to have hit him, so I'm pretty likely to have the best hand. I could bet, but there are two reasons not to. Even though this board is safe for me, I won't want to call a big bluffraise, and with a hand that's missed the board completely, which is by far his most likely hand, he'll be sorely tempted to make one. I guess it depends whether he puts me on a pair or a K. The other reason is that he won't pay me off with a worse hand here. He's just not all that likely to have anything he'll call a bet with.

So I'm going to check and call a bet. If he does something insane like shoving, I'm in a very tough spot. But mostly he won't. If he bluffs, he'll want to get away cheaply against a king, which would call a shove.

basatagirl checks
tibblewinks has 15 seconds left to act
tibblewinks bets 360
basatagirl calls 360

Easy call.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
tibblewinks shows [Tc Js] King Jack high

Raising with JT is superbad obv.

basatagirl shows [7c 7h] a pair of Sevens
basatagirl wins the pot (1,530) with a pair of Sevens

Nice.