Friday 28 March 2008

Space for an ace

Why does two pair never hold up? It's a mystery.

I have K5 in the BB. Three guys limp, I check.

Flop is K52 with two hearts. I bet pot.

One caller. Turn is a an ace. Somehow or another, we get it all in. Obv. I know he has an ace, but I'm hoping he hasn't paired his kicker. I'm somewhat surprised to see he has A8, with no hearts.

So the guy called a potsized bet on the flop with no pair, no draw, not a heart in his hand. The 2 paired, obviously, and he busted me.

I try to get into this kind of fish's head. This is how he must be thinking: I have an ace and if I hit it, I'm going to have the best pair possible and will make money. So he calls a bet on the flop because if he hits his ace, he's gold. I think this is what Snyder calls an ace master.

Later in the same session, a guy minraised and I reraised with AK. He called. The flop came A62 or something like that (a board that wouldn't give a str8 draw to ace-rag anyway). I bet, he called. The turn was another 2. I'm clearly no worse off on the turn than I was on the flop, unless he called with K2 or something deranged like that. So I bet again, with the intention of getting it in on the river, he calls again. The river is a K, so I have now caught up with A6 if he has that. I get it in, he calls and shows A3. I am glad I didn't have AQ, because he would have sucked out to a chop, but the hand demonstrates really clearly that the ace master simply doesn't care what you might have. He has hit his ace and now he will be paid.

It seems almost unfair to outkick the poor sod. I wonder how much it will cost him, over his playing career. Because the ace master's model is badly flawed. Yes, top pair will often take the pot heads up, and a pair of aces is a strong hand on most boards, but the guy betting at you is giving you a hint, which it's costly to ignore. And the ace master who got it in against my two pair? Well, the conclusion he will draw is how right he was to think his ace would be good, and he will forget all the times he does not pair his ace, and the times the river does not bail him out when he is up against two pair, and lose mucho money waiting for that ace to come.

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