Here's why you can win money at poker. This is just a $5 game, but this play wouldn't be out of place at the $10s or $6.5s. I have no read on villain at all.
TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T4-68189398-9
played at "Mount Vernon" for USD TC from 2008-05-21 20:44 until 2008-05-21 20:45
Seat 1: reggx ($2,340 in chips)
Seat 2: seppolo27 ($1,445 in chips)
Seat 3: canto xx ($1,610 in chips)
Seat 4: cladius99 ($1,430 in chips)
Seat 5: iren1073 ($1,290 in chips)
Seat 6: inspecteurgg ($1,660 in chips)
Seat 7: godhino2 ($1,160 in chips)
Seat 8: Dr Zen ($1,450 in chips)
Seat 9: Leguy93 ($1,130 in chips)
Seat 10: CANNYBUS ($1,485 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
canto xx posts blind ($15), cladius99 posts blind ($30).
PRE-FLOP
iren1073 folds, inspecteurgg folds, godhino2 folds, Dr Zen calls $30, Leguy93 calls $30, CANNYBUS folds, reggx folds, seppolo27 folds, canto xx bets $45, cladius99 folds, Dr Zen calls $30, Leguy93 calls $30.
Limp for set value first time round and no reason not to call the minraise. Why these players make them, I don't know. No one folds and you just end up drawn out on.
FLOP [board cards: 7D 2C 4H ]
canto xx bets $30
Hilarious. Obviously trying to steal it.
Dr Zen bets $100
I make a very small raise. The board is super dry and I have the nuts, but I will get calls from all sorts of hands here, and if canto or the other guy has an overpair, we might get a nice pot here.
Leguy93 calls $100, canto xx folds.
It's impossible to put this guy on a range. He could literally have anything here. You'd consider his most likely hands some sort of OCs, maybe 4x or 2x if he's super bad. He can have a draw, but only 65 is really reasonable here. I guess 86 is also possible if he's superbad.
TURN [board cards: 7D 2C 4H 3H ]
Dr Zen bets $300, Leguy93 calls $300.
I slightly regret my small bet on the flop because 65 has come in. That's only a tiny part of his range though, but his call scares me a little. However, it's quite conceivable that he has Ah2h or 55, something like that. He could also have the underset or an overpair.
RIVER [board cards: 7D 2C 4H 3H QD ]
Dr Zen bets $990 and is all-in, Leguy93 calls $670 and is all-in.
You could make a case for not shoving here. There aren't that many hands you beat that he will call with here: undersets, overpairs to a 7 maybe, twopair hands, some Qx hands. But there also aren't many that beat us: just 65 and A5.
SHOWDOWN
Dr Zen shows [ 7H 7S ]
Leguy93 shows [ 2H JH ]
What. Teh. Fuck.
Thursday, 22 May 2008
Saturday, 17 May 2008
Down
Sigh. Another five-game losing streak. It's not much, but these players are so bad that it hurts. My ROI is way below what I would hope for at the 10s.
This is how they've gone:
1. AK, got it in on A high flop and guy with straight flush draw hit both.
2. Lost most of my stack when guy with AA limped UTG and I pushed over with TT. Then busted pushing rags into the tightest guy at the table, who decided this was the hand to loosen up on.
3. Turned a flush and guy sucked out to full on river.
4. Shoved over retarded minraiser when on button with A9. BB had AJs.
5. Pushed over loose raiser with 66. He had KQ. Flop Q obv. This is after I iso-shoved a weak player with AT, and a retard called off 3BB with Q6s. Flop Q obv. The only time you don't flop a Q when I'm around is when I hold QQ. Then you flop an A or K, depending what you need.
This is how they've gone:
1. AK, got it in on A high flop and guy with straight flush draw hit both.
2. Lost most of my stack when guy with AA limped UTG and I pushed over with TT. Then busted pushing rags into the tightest guy at the table, who decided this was the hand to loosen up on.
3. Turned a flush and guy sucked out to full on river.
4. Shoved over retarded minraiser when on button with A9. BB had AJs.
5. Pushed over loose raiser with 66. He had KQ. Flop Q obv. This is after I iso-shoved a weak player with AT, and a retard called off 3BB with Q6s. Flop Q obv. The only time you don't flop a Q when I'm around is when I hold QQ. Then you flop an A or K, depending what you need.
All uphill
All uphill today.
PokerStars Game #17485278497: Tournament #88644960, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/05/17 - 01:50:28 (ET)
Table '88644960 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: wiggles16 (1360 in chips)
Seat 2: kridtman (1400 in chips)
Seat 3: TimTolle (1590 in chips)
Seat 4: Rocktoit420 (1180 in chips)
Seat 5: 3Aces2K's (835 in chips)
Seat 6: VAB_Shark (2606 in chips)
Seat 7: FR Vessant (1320 in chips)
Seat 8: bud_901 (1320 in chips)
Seat 9: D-2-D (1889 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 15
bud_901: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [7h 8h]
D-2-D: calls 30
wiggles16: folds
kridtman: folds
TimTolle: folds
Rocktoit420: folds
3Aces2K's: folds
VAB_Shark: raises 30 to 60
This guy is minraising literally every hand he plays.
FR Vessant: calls 45
Normally, I'd fold this, but I figure I can win a very decent pot if I get lucky postflop.
bud_901: calls 30
D-2-D: calls 30
*** FLOP *** [9h Th Td]
That's a very decent flop for me. I have the straight flush draw. I'd like to build a pot because I expect to win more than half the time. With luck, the retarded minraiser will raise and I can get all in. I'm slightly less happy with a J than a 6, but I expect that any straight or flush will be good.
FR Vessant: bets 120
bud_901: folds
D-2-D: calls 120
This very loose guy probably has a small pair and doesn't believe I hit the flop.
VAB_Shark: calls 120
I'd rather he raised, but still, there are tons of cards on the turn that will make me happy.
*** TURN *** [9h Th Td] [Ts]
That is totally not one of them. I'm now drawing dead against any pair higher than 8s. I could cry.
FR Vessant: checks
D-2-D: checks
VAB_Shark: bets 200
FR Vessant: folds
No way I can call. The risk that he has a pair is too high. Even 22 has me drawing very slim. The other guy can easily have a pair too.
D-2-D: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [9h Th Td Ts] [Js]
FR Vessant said, "sigh"
Yes, FR. It's a lot like that.
Now, I could have folded preflop and you could argue for not betting the flop. But preflop, I think my hand will play okay against this idiot. He often bets small postflop too, so it's going to be relatively cheap to showdown if I make a pair on the flop. A few hands earlier, he flopped a full house, checked it, called a small bet from me on the turn, then checked to me again (allowing me to check behind).
On the flop, I want a bigger pot. I'm hoping to be raised. I don't mind if someone has a T, because if I make my draws, they won't improve and will still need to get lucky on the river.
D-2-D: bets 360
VAB_Shark: folds
Probably had nothing on the turn. But still I couldn't call.
I got knocked out shortly after. I think my play is okay. Just one of those things:
PokerStars Game #17485398953: Tournament #88644960, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/17 - 02:00:03 (ET)
Table '88644960 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: wiggles16 (435 in chips)
Seat 2: kridtman (1355 in chips)
Seat 3: TimTolle (1720 in chips)
Seat 5: 3Aces2K's (2815 in chips)
Seat 6: VAB_Shark (2081 in chips)
Seat 7: FR Vessant (1085 in chips)
Seat 8: bud_901 (940 in chips)
Seat 9: D-2-D (3069 in chips)
bud_901: posts small blind 25
D-2-D: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ac 9s]
wiggles16: folds
kridtman: folds
TimTolle: folds
3Aces2K's: calls 50
VAB_Shark: raises 50 to 100
Minraises again.
225 in the pot. The minraiser has nothing, obv., so I think I can steal this.
FR Vessant: raises 985 to 1085 and is all-in
bud_901: folds
D-2-D: calls 1035
Ouch. He has AJs. I'd probably fold in his shoes, but I'm not retarded, and it's not terrible. It's only a third of his stack, so meh.
3Aces2K's: folds
VAB_Shark: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qh 8s 6c]
FR Vessant said, "sigh"
*** TURN *** [Qh 8s 6c] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [Qh 8s 6c 7d] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
D-2-D: shows [Ah Jh] (a pair of Sevens)
FR Vessant: shows [Ac 9s] (a pair of Sevens - lower kicker)
D-2-D collected 2345 from pot
GG me.
PokerStars Game #17485278497: Tournament #88644960, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/05/17 - 01:50:28 (ET)
Table '88644960 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: wiggles16 (1360 in chips)
Seat 2: kridtman (1400 in chips)
Seat 3: TimTolle (1590 in chips)
Seat 4: Rocktoit420 (1180 in chips)
Seat 5: 3Aces2K's (835 in chips)
Seat 6: VAB_Shark (2606 in chips)
Seat 7: FR Vessant (1320 in chips)
Seat 8: bud_901 (1320 in chips)
Seat 9: D-2-D (1889 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 15
bud_901: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [7h 8h]
D-2-D: calls 30
wiggles16: folds
kridtman: folds
TimTolle: folds
Rocktoit420: folds
3Aces2K's: folds
VAB_Shark: raises 30 to 60
This guy is minraising literally every hand he plays.
FR Vessant: calls 45
Normally, I'd fold this, but I figure I can win a very decent pot if I get lucky postflop.
bud_901: calls 30
D-2-D: calls 30
*** FLOP *** [9h Th Td]
That's a very decent flop for me. I have the straight flush draw. I'd like to build a pot because I expect to win more than half the time. With luck, the retarded minraiser will raise and I can get all in. I'm slightly less happy with a J than a 6, but I expect that any straight or flush will be good.
FR Vessant: bets 120
bud_901: folds
D-2-D: calls 120
This very loose guy probably has a small pair and doesn't believe I hit the flop.
VAB_Shark: calls 120
I'd rather he raised, but still, there are tons of cards on the turn that will make me happy.
*** TURN *** [9h Th Td] [Ts]
That is totally not one of them. I'm now drawing dead against any pair higher than 8s. I could cry.
FR Vessant: checks
D-2-D: checks
VAB_Shark: bets 200
FR Vessant: folds
No way I can call. The risk that he has a pair is too high. Even 22 has me drawing very slim. The other guy can easily have a pair too.
D-2-D: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [9h Th Td Ts] [Js]
FR Vessant said, "sigh"
Yes, FR. It's a lot like that.
Now, I could have folded preflop and you could argue for not betting the flop. But preflop, I think my hand will play okay against this idiot. He often bets small postflop too, so it's going to be relatively cheap to showdown if I make a pair on the flop. A few hands earlier, he flopped a full house, checked it, called a small bet from me on the turn, then checked to me again (allowing me to check behind).
On the flop, I want a bigger pot. I'm hoping to be raised. I don't mind if someone has a T, because if I make my draws, they won't improve and will still need to get lucky on the river.
D-2-D: bets 360
VAB_Shark: folds
Probably had nothing on the turn. But still I couldn't call.
I got knocked out shortly after. I think my play is okay. Just one of those things:
PokerStars Game #17485398953: Tournament #88644960, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/17 - 02:00:03 (ET)
Table '88644960 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: wiggles16 (435 in chips)
Seat 2: kridtman (1355 in chips)
Seat 3: TimTolle (1720 in chips)
Seat 5: 3Aces2K's (2815 in chips)
Seat 6: VAB_Shark (2081 in chips)
Seat 7: FR Vessant (1085 in chips)
Seat 8: bud_901 (940 in chips)
Seat 9: D-2-D (3069 in chips)
bud_901: posts small blind 25
D-2-D: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ac 9s]
wiggles16: folds
kridtman: folds
TimTolle: folds
3Aces2K's: calls 50
VAB_Shark: raises 50 to 100
Minraises again.
225 in the pot. The minraiser has nothing, obv., so I think I can steal this.
FR Vessant: raises 985 to 1085 and is all-in
bud_901: folds
D-2-D: calls 1035
Ouch. He has AJs. I'd probably fold in his shoes, but I'm not retarded, and it's not terrible. It's only a third of his stack, so meh.
3Aces2K's: folds
VAB_Shark: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qh 8s 6c]
FR Vessant said, "sigh"
*** TURN *** [Qh 8s 6c] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [Qh 8s 6c 7d] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
D-2-D: shows [Ah Jh] (a pair of Sevens)
FR Vessant: shows [Ac 9s] (a pair of Sevens - lower kicker)
D-2-D collected 2345 from pot
GG me.
The only thing you did right, sir, was suck out
I hate these retards. And I hate it when they get lucky.
In this hand, SB has 22. See what you make of his play.
PokerStars Game #17484950795: Tournament #88640539, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/05/17 - 01:25:36 (ET)
Table '88640539 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: EC Pirates (1995 in chips)
Seat 2: rjm74 (1570 in chips)
Seat 3: joshrocker (1755 in chips)
Seat 4: dtrix79 (3200 in chips)
Seat 5: FR Vessant (1380 in chips)
Seat 6: Waggdawg (1010 in chips)
Seat 8: TheAccount (1175 in chips)
Seat 9: LATINFLACO (1415 in chips)
dtrix79: posts small blind 75
FR Vessant: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [6h Jh]
Waggdawg: folds
TheAccount: folds
LATINFLACO: folds
EC Pirates: folds
EC Pirates is sitting out
rjm74: folds
joshrocker: folds
dtrix79: calls 75
Horrible. I have less than 10BB and he has a hand that will rarely be good enough postflop that he can be confident in it. He should push.
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kh Jc 2h]
dtrix79: checks
I can forgive checking but I generally make a weak bet here, in the hope the BB will think I'm FOS and shove a K or J over.
FR Vessant: bets 300
I have a strong hand: a flush draw plus a pair. I have 14 outs to beat top pair, and I have to think I'm best at this point. If he is "trapping" with a K and pushes over, I'll have an easy call and be favourite to win.
dtrix79: calls 300
This is terrible with his hand on this board. He should definitely raise.
*** TURN *** [Kh Jc 2h] [Qh]
dtrix79: checks
FR Vessant: bets 930 and is all-in
dtrix79: calls 930
He probably can't fold here. I can't have KQ (would have shoved it pre), KJ is unlikely (probably shove that too) and all the draws came in. He has at best 10 outs but the pot offers 2 to 1. So I guess he has to call and hope to get...
*** RIVER *** [Kh Jc 2h Qh] [Kd]
Lucky.
Sigh.
In this hand, SB has 22. See what you make of his play.
PokerStars Game #17484950795: Tournament #88640539, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/05/17 - 01:25:36 (ET)
Table '88640539 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: EC Pirates (1995 in chips)
Seat 2: rjm74 (1570 in chips)
Seat 3: joshrocker (1755 in chips)
Seat 4: dtrix79 (3200 in chips)
Seat 5: FR Vessant (1380 in chips)
Seat 6: Waggdawg (1010 in chips)
Seat 8: TheAccount (1175 in chips)
Seat 9: LATINFLACO (1415 in chips)
dtrix79: posts small blind 75
FR Vessant: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [6h Jh]
Waggdawg: folds
TheAccount: folds
LATINFLACO: folds
EC Pirates: folds
EC Pirates is sitting out
rjm74: folds
joshrocker: folds
dtrix79: calls 75
Horrible. I have less than 10BB and he has a hand that will rarely be good enough postflop that he can be confident in it. He should push.
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kh Jc 2h]
dtrix79: checks
I can forgive checking but I generally make a weak bet here, in the hope the BB will think I'm FOS and shove a K or J over.
FR Vessant: bets 300
I have a strong hand: a flush draw plus a pair. I have 14 outs to beat top pair, and I have to think I'm best at this point. If he is "trapping" with a K and pushes over, I'll have an easy call and be favourite to win.
dtrix79: calls 300
This is terrible with his hand on this board. He should definitely raise.
*** TURN *** [Kh Jc 2h] [Qh]
dtrix79: checks
FR Vessant: bets 930 and is all-in
dtrix79: calls 930
He probably can't fold here. I can't have KQ (would have shoved it pre), KJ is unlikely (probably shove that too) and all the draws came in. He has at best 10 outs but the pot offers 2 to 1. So I guess he has to call and hope to get...
*** RIVER *** [Kh Jc 2h Qh] [Kd]
Lucky.
Sigh.
Friday, 16 May 2008
You gots to laugh
No, really, you do.
PokerStars Game #17464376572: Tournament #88537690, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/05/16 - 04:50:49 (ET)
Table '88537690 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: DUE2003 (1730 in chips)
Seat 2: studman65 (670 in chips)
Seat 3: FR Vessant (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: marijule (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: xbbACEdx (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: mrp123 (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: colin28950 (2260 in chips)
Seat 8: crayondawg (1870 in chips)
Seat 9: Kirche83 (1380 in chips)
Kirche83: posts small blind 15
DUE2003: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Ks]
studman65: folds
FR Vessant: raises 90 to 120
I'd normally raise to 3x, but this table has already looked ultraloose, so I put more chips in. Bigger pot if I hit the flop.
marijule: folds
xbbACEdx: calls 120
mrp123: folds
colin28950: folds
crayondawg: calls 120
Kirche83: folds
DUE2003: calls 90
WTF? There is no way these guys all have good enough hands to risk this many chips.
*** FLOP *** [Tc Ac Qd]
So I hit it, but that's a really dangerous flop.
DUE2003: bets 1610 and is all-in
OMG. Well, I figure he can have a very wide range of hands. He could be made, with KJ , TT, AQ, AT. He could have a draw to the flush, and that would be most of his range here. He could have a combo draw. I can be a bit behind that but with all the money in the pot, I can't fold.
FR Vessant: calls 1350 and is all-in
xbbACEdx: calls 1060 and is all-in
wat!
crayondawg: folds
Uncalled bet (260) returned to DUE2003
It turns out the fishy big blind has Jc9c. His preflop call is awful, because he's always behind and if he flops a pair, I'm never paying him off. Pushing the flop is also pretty terrible. In his shoes, I bet out, hoping to be raised or even check, looking to get it in.
The caller has AQ. His preflop call is atrocious. He doesn't know I'm tight -- although I haven't played a hand yet -- but AQ is a bad hand to call raises with. You are never going to be sure enough on the flop that you're ahead, unless you flop it really good. As he did here.
Me, I'm in really bad. I need a jack.
*** TURN *** [Tc Ac Qd] [Kh]
Oh dear.
That gives the fishy big blind his straight.
River J?
*** RIVER *** [Tc Ac Qd Kh] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DUE2003: shows [9c Jc] (a flush, Ace high)
FR Vessant: shows [Ah Ks] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
DUE2003 collected 580 from side pot
xbbACEdx: shows [Qc As] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
DUE2003 collected 3675 from main pot
Meh.
In case you were wondering, that flop is really tough for AK. A reasonable calling range for BB is beating us a lot on that flop, but you don't want to fold the best hand. If you are behind, you are only drawing to four outs. As it happens, I was miles behind both players, but you can't know that when you're faced with the bet.
Still I'm not sure. Maybe better to fold.
PokerStars Game #17464376572: Tournament #88537690, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/05/16 - 04:50:49 (ET)
Table '88537690 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: DUE2003 (1730 in chips)
Seat 2: studman65 (670 in chips)
Seat 3: FR Vessant (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: marijule (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: xbbACEdx (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: mrp123 (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: colin28950 (2260 in chips)
Seat 8: crayondawg (1870 in chips)
Seat 9: Kirche83 (1380 in chips)
Kirche83: posts small blind 15
DUE2003: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Ks]
studman65: folds
FR Vessant: raises 90 to 120
I'd normally raise to 3x, but this table has already looked ultraloose, so I put more chips in. Bigger pot if I hit the flop.
marijule: folds
xbbACEdx: calls 120
mrp123: folds
colin28950: folds
crayondawg: calls 120
Kirche83: folds
DUE2003: calls 90
WTF? There is no way these guys all have good enough hands to risk this many chips.
*** FLOP *** [Tc Ac Qd]
So I hit it, but that's a really dangerous flop.
DUE2003: bets 1610 and is all-in
OMG. Well, I figure he can have a very wide range of hands. He could be made, with KJ , TT, AQ, AT. He could have a draw to the flush, and that would be most of his range here. He could have a combo draw. I can be a bit behind that but with all the money in the pot, I can't fold.
FR Vessant: calls 1350 and is all-in
xbbACEdx: calls 1060 and is all-in
wat!
crayondawg: folds
Uncalled bet (260) returned to DUE2003
It turns out the fishy big blind has Jc9c. His preflop call is awful, because he's always behind and if he flops a pair, I'm never paying him off. Pushing the flop is also pretty terrible. In his shoes, I bet out, hoping to be raised or even check, looking to get it in.
The caller has AQ. His preflop call is atrocious. He doesn't know I'm tight -- although I haven't played a hand yet -- but AQ is a bad hand to call raises with. You are never going to be sure enough on the flop that you're ahead, unless you flop it really good. As he did here.
Me, I'm in really bad. I need a jack.
*** TURN *** [Tc Ac Qd] [Kh]
Oh dear.
That gives the fishy big blind his straight.
River J?
*** RIVER *** [Tc Ac Qd Kh] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DUE2003: shows [9c Jc] (a flush, Ace high)
FR Vessant: shows [Ah Ks] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
DUE2003 collected 580 from side pot
xbbACEdx: shows [Qc As] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
DUE2003 collected 3675 from main pot
Meh.
In case you were wondering, that flop is really tough for AK. A reasonable calling range for BB is beating us a lot on that flop, but you don't want to fold the best hand. If you are behind, you are only drawing to four outs. As it happens, I was miles behind both players, but you can't know that when you're faced with the bet.
Still I'm not sure. Maybe better to fold.
Saturday, 10 May 2008
Lesson: about odds
Okay, I've been thinking about it and this is probably the way conceptually to think about odds.
Say you are 3/1 to win a hand. What does that actually mean?
You are at point A, the action point. It's the point at which you must decide whether to bet, call or fold. Your odds at that point represent your chances of getting a certain outcome (the one favourable to you). All the figures we are bandying about express those chances.
So. You are at A, and after you decide, you will be at B. Say you take the odds.
It's as though there are four point Bs: B1, B2, B3, B4. Imagine this is a quantum universe (which it is), in which all possibilities happen (they probably do).
B1 is favourable for you.
B2, B3, B4 are not favourable for you.
3/1 says there are four outcomes, and one is good for you.
You can always think of odds in that way. Just sum the two sides and consider that you have that many outcomes. If your odds were 3/2, you have five outcomes, two favouring you.
Okay. So how does that fit in with a/ equity and b/ pot odds?
A. Equity
Your equity in this sense is the share your favourable outcomes have of all possible outcomes. When you are 3/1 to make your hand, you win it one out of four times.
You can figure out what your odds are as a percentage by simply doing this: divide 100 by the number of possible outcomes, then times that by the number of favourable outcomes.
I know that sounds complicated, but really it isn't. More importantly, you usually think of it the other way round.
We were talking about QQ vs AK. We say QQ has 56% equity versus AK.
So what are we saying? Well, equity always totals 100%. You can't win more than everything. And this is in any case how we describe probabilities: 56% just means 56 out of 100.
Out of 100 outcomes, if you hold QQ vs AK, there are 56 that are favourable. You can also write that as 0.56, which is handy when you're figuring out how much you stand to win or lose. (If you both have stacks of 1500, he shoves and turns over AK, and you are thinking about calling, you know that you stand to win 0.56 x 3000, and the amount you lose is always your bet. This just means that if you played the hand 100 times, you would expect to win 56 times and lose 44 times, which would average out to 0.56 x 3000.)
B. Pot odds
You can easily figure your pot odds. They are always (money in the pot) / (the bet you have to call).
If the pot is 100, some guy puts in 50, and you are asked whether you want to call, your pot odds are 100+50 / 50, which is 3/1. So when should you call?
You should call when your odds of winning are better than 3/1. How you can figure that out is for another day, but this is a key idea in poker.
3/1 means that out of four outcomes, one needs to be favourable to you. Remember our little formula? Sum the outcomes = 4. Divide that into 100 = 25. Times that by favourable outcomes - 25. You need to be a 25% chance against whatever he's betting with to win.
Luckily, there are tools to figure out whether you actually are that good a chance against his range, so long as you can make a reasonable estimate of what hands he can have. You can get by in STTs with a very sketchy and basic knowledge of pot odds. Basically, you need to know when you are good to push with a draw and when you are being offered such good odds that you should not fold. But you can learn both without having too good a grasp of the underlying concepts.
But this you do need to understand. Each set of outcomes makes a pie that totals 1. You are always going to end up with 1 or 0. But conceptually, before a play you can consider yourself to have a virtual slice of the pie. You will make a lot of decisions that depend on how big that slice is. And that pie is intimately connected with another (I know, way too many pies), which we will consider next. Just as you have equity in every hand (which is just the amount of outcomes that will favour you), you have equity in the tournament (which is the amount of the tournament's prizepool your chips are currently worth).
Conceptually, what matters is that you understand that even though you really end up with 1 or 0 -- or in prizes with 50/30/20 -- at any point, you have a virtual slice of the pie, which we can describe in percentages.
Say you are 3/1 to win a hand. What does that actually mean?
You are at point A, the action point. It's the point at which you must decide whether to bet, call or fold. Your odds at that point represent your chances of getting a certain outcome (the one favourable to you). All the figures we are bandying about express those chances.
So. You are at A, and after you decide, you will be at B. Say you take the odds.
It's as though there are four point Bs: B1, B2, B3, B4. Imagine this is a quantum universe (which it is), in which all possibilities happen (they probably do).
B1 is favourable for you.
B2, B3, B4 are not favourable for you.
3/1 says there are four outcomes, and one is good for you.
You can always think of odds in that way. Just sum the two sides and consider that you have that many outcomes. If your odds were 3/2, you have five outcomes, two favouring you.
Okay. So how does that fit in with a/ equity and b/ pot odds?
A. Equity
Your equity in this sense is the share your favourable outcomes have of all possible outcomes. When you are 3/1 to make your hand, you win it one out of four times.
You can figure out what your odds are as a percentage by simply doing this: divide 100 by the number of possible outcomes, then times that by the number of favourable outcomes.
I know that sounds complicated, but really it isn't. More importantly, you usually think of it the other way round.
We were talking about QQ vs AK. We say QQ has 56% equity versus AK.
So what are we saying? Well, equity always totals 100%. You can't win more than everything. And this is in any case how we describe probabilities: 56% just means 56 out of 100.
Out of 100 outcomes, if you hold QQ vs AK, there are 56 that are favourable. You can also write that as 0.56, which is handy when you're figuring out how much you stand to win or lose. (If you both have stacks of 1500, he shoves and turns over AK, and you are thinking about calling, you know that you stand to win 0.56 x 3000, and the amount you lose is always your bet. This just means that if you played the hand 100 times, you would expect to win 56 times and lose 44 times, which would average out to 0.56 x 3000.)
B. Pot odds
You can easily figure your pot odds. They are always (money in the pot) / (the bet you have to call).
If the pot is 100, some guy puts in 50, and you are asked whether you want to call, your pot odds are 100+50 / 50, which is 3/1. So when should you call?
You should call when your odds of winning are better than 3/1. How you can figure that out is for another day, but this is a key idea in poker.
3/1 means that out of four outcomes, one needs to be favourable to you. Remember our little formula? Sum the outcomes = 4. Divide that into 100 = 25. Times that by favourable outcomes - 25. You need to be a 25% chance against whatever he's betting with to win.
Luckily, there are tools to figure out whether you actually are that good a chance against his range, so long as you can make a reasonable estimate of what hands he can have. You can get by in STTs with a very sketchy and basic knowledge of pot odds. Basically, you need to know when you are good to push with a draw and when you are being offered such good odds that you should not fold. But you can learn both without having too good a grasp of the underlying concepts.
But this you do need to understand. Each set of outcomes makes a pie that totals 1. You are always going to end up with 1 or 0. But conceptually, before a play you can consider yourself to have a virtual slice of the pie. You will make a lot of decisions that depend on how big that slice is. And that pie is intimately connected with another (I know, way too many pies), which we will consider next. Just as you have equity in every hand (which is just the amount of outcomes that will favour you), you have equity in the tournament (which is the amount of the tournament's prizepool your chips are currently worth).
Conceptually, what matters is that you understand that even though you really end up with 1 or 0 -- or in prizes with 50/30/20 -- at any point, you have a virtual slice of the pie, which we can describe in percentages.
Friday, 9 May 2008
Meeeeowwwwwwwwwcunt
I don't try to steal the blinds much at t50. No real point. But I've been worrying lately that I'm playing too passively. But actually, I'm probably better off just not bothering.
PokerStars Game #17301504798: Tournament #87687371, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/09 - 01:09:23 (ET)
Table '87687371 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: FR Vessant (3890 in chips)
Seat 5: forever_smex (2935 in chips)
Seat 6: gtdmo (2615 in chips)
Seat 7: jazzy22 (3070 in chips)
Seat 9: feelincrappy (990 in chips)
jazzy22: posts small blind 25
feelincrappy: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Tc]
FR Vessant: raises 100 to 150
AT fivehanded is just too strong to fold.
forever_smex: folds
gtdmo: folds
jazzy22: calls 125
The guy's a total fish, so you have the double-edged sword. On one side, he's useless. On the other, his range for calling is pretty wide.
feelincrappy: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 4c 9d]
jazzy22: bets 150
There's no way that hit him. He's got to be bluffing.
FR Vessant: calls 150
*** TURN *** [9s 4c 9d] [Kd]
jazzy22: bets 150
FR Vessant: calls 150
That may have hit him but he didn't bet enough for me to consider folding.
*** RIVER *** [9s 4c 9d Kd] [2h]
jazzy22: bets 150
FR Vessant: calls 150
I'm no worse off here than I was on the flop.
I realise that mostly he has a pair, but I can't fold the river at that price.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jazzy22: shows [Js 4s] (two pair, Nines and Fours)
W. T. F.
No, really. He didn't just complete the blind with that shit. He called a raise.
And then hit the fucking flop with it. It's actually incredibly difficult to find a fold anywhere in that hand but there's nowhere I can put more money in and make him fold. Not that he would.
On the flop, his most likely hand is a bluff. He doesn't have a 9 often there, and there should be few or no 4s in even a fish's range. The turn may have improved him but he doesn't increase the bet, which many fishes do when they have been bluffing but now hit. On the river, the pot odds are too big to fold, although I'm rarely winning.
But Jeezus, could I please hit the flop? And when I do, could the other guy not have some weird fucking two pair hand? And when all that goes to plan, could my hand please hold up sometimes?
***
Poker Jeezus is not listening. Same guy. I have AT again.
PokerStars Game #17301661046: Tournament #87687371, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/09 - 01:21:13 (ET)
Table '87687371 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: FR Vessant (2315 in chips)
Seat 5: forever_smex (4310 in chips)
Seat 6: gtdmo (3390 in chips)
Seat 7: jazzy22 (3485 in chips)
gtdmo: posts small blind 50
jazzy22: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Th Ad]
FR Vessant: raises 150 to 250
I'm close to push/fold. smex already pushed over one raise, so I keep this small, because I'll have to fold again if anyone pushes.
forever_smex: folds
gtdmo: folds
jazzy22: calls 150
Of course. He can again have anything.
*** FLOP *** [Ah 9s Kc]
jazzy22: checks
FR Vessant: bets 300
Well, I hit the flop, so I have to bet.
jazzy22: calls 300
OMG. K9? Set of 9s?
*** TURN *** [Ah 9s Kc] [Qd]
jazzy22: bets 300
FR Vessant: calls 300
I have to call here. I have no reason to think he's beating me. He's retarded enough to bet QT here a lot. Mind you, he's also retarded enough to have Q9 or of course any ace. I have to just hope the river will be cheap.
*** RIVER *** [Ah 9s Kc Qd] [8s]
jazzy22: bets 400
FR Vessant: calls 400
I am all agog to see what shit he is going to show me.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jazzy22: shows [As Jc] (a pair of Aces)
There are days when you just want to bury your own head in the garden.
***
And this is one of them:
PokerStars Game #17301766562: Tournament #87687472, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/05/09 - 01:29:39 (ET)
Table '87687472 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: FR Vessant (1420 in chips)
Seat 3: Wolf_Pride (2595 in chips)
Seat 4: yumpoker! (2895 in chips)
Seat 5: ZLP1712 (3545 in chips)
Seat 8: brevenge (1155 in chips)
Seat 9: gumphry (1890 in chips)
yumpoker!: posts small blind 75
ZLP1712: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Ac]
brevenge: folds
gumphry: raises 1740 to 1890 and is all-in
Hooray!
FR Vessant: calls 1420 and is all-in
Have that bitch!
Wolf_Pride: folds
yumpoker!: folds
ZLP1712: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 7d Jc]
Oh.
PokerStars Game #17301504798: Tournament #87687371, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/05/09 - 01:09:23 (ET)
Table '87687371 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: FR Vessant (3890 in chips)
Seat 5: forever_smex (2935 in chips)
Seat 6: gtdmo (2615 in chips)
Seat 7: jazzy22 (3070 in chips)
Seat 9: feelincrappy (990 in chips)
jazzy22: posts small blind 25
feelincrappy: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Tc]
FR Vessant: raises 100 to 150
AT fivehanded is just too strong to fold.
forever_smex: folds
gtdmo: folds
jazzy22: calls 125
The guy's a total fish, so you have the double-edged sword. On one side, he's useless. On the other, his range for calling is pretty wide.
feelincrappy: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 4c 9d]
jazzy22: bets 150
There's no way that hit him. He's got to be bluffing.
FR Vessant: calls 150
*** TURN *** [9s 4c 9d] [Kd]
jazzy22: bets 150
FR Vessant: calls 150
That may have hit him but he didn't bet enough for me to consider folding.
*** RIVER *** [9s 4c 9d Kd] [2h]
jazzy22: bets 150
FR Vessant: calls 150
I'm no worse off here than I was on the flop.
I realise that mostly he has a pair, but I can't fold the river at that price.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jazzy22: shows [Js 4s] (two pair, Nines and Fours)
W. T. F.
No, really. He didn't just complete the blind with that shit. He called a raise.
And then hit the fucking flop with it. It's actually incredibly difficult to find a fold anywhere in that hand but there's nowhere I can put more money in and make him fold. Not that he would.
On the flop, his most likely hand is a bluff. He doesn't have a 9 often there, and there should be few or no 4s in even a fish's range. The turn may have improved him but he doesn't increase the bet, which many fishes do when they have been bluffing but now hit. On the river, the pot odds are too big to fold, although I'm rarely winning.
But Jeezus, could I please hit the flop? And when I do, could the other guy not have some weird fucking two pair hand? And when all that goes to plan, could my hand please hold up sometimes?
***
Poker Jeezus is not listening. Same guy. I have AT again.
PokerStars Game #17301661046: Tournament #87687371, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/05/09 - 01:21:13 (ET)
Table '87687371 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: FR Vessant (2315 in chips)
Seat 5: forever_smex (4310 in chips)
Seat 6: gtdmo (3390 in chips)
Seat 7: jazzy22 (3485 in chips)
gtdmo: posts small blind 50
jazzy22: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Th Ad]
FR Vessant: raises 150 to 250
I'm close to push/fold. smex already pushed over one raise, so I keep this small, because I'll have to fold again if anyone pushes.
forever_smex: folds
gtdmo: folds
jazzy22: calls 150
Of course. He can again have anything.
*** FLOP *** [Ah 9s Kc]
jazzy22: checks
FR Vessant: bets 300
Well, I hit the flop, so I have to bet.
jazzy22: calls 300
OMG. K9? Set of 9s?
*** TURN *** [Ah 9s Kc] [Qd]
jazzy22: bets 300
FR Vessant: calls 300
I have to call here. I have no reason to think he's beating me. He's retarded enough to bet QT here a lot. Mind you, he's also retarded enough to have Q9 or of course any ace. I have to just hope the river will be cheap.
*** RIVER *** [Ah 9s Kc Qd] [8s]
jazzy22: bets 400
FR Vessant: calls 400
I am all agog to see what shit he is going to show me.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jazzy22: shows [As Jc] (a pair of Aces)
There are days when you just want to bury your own head in the garden.
***
And this is one of them:
PokerStars Game #17301766562: Tournament #87687472, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/05/09 - 01:29:39 (ET)
Table '87687472 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: FR Vessant (1420 in chips)
Seat 3: Wolf_Pride (2595 in chips)
Seat 4: yumpoker! (2895 in chips)
Seat 5: ZLP1712 (3545 in chips)
Seat 8: brevenge (1155 in chips)
Seat 9: gumphry (1890 in chips)
yumpoker!: posts small blind 75
ZLP1712: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Ac]
brevenge: folds
gumphry: raises 1740 to 1890 and is all-in
Hooray!
FR Vessant: calls 1420 and is all-in
Have that bitch!
Wolf_Pride: folds
yumpoker!: folds
ZLP1712: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 7d Jc]
Oh.
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