Bet or check?

I have no one to talk poker with so I'm stuck with posting hands here. Maybe someone will happen along and comment.

PokerStars Game #30218574186: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/07/08 0:35:44 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: jivehoney2 (875 in chips)
Seat 3: catsonny (1630 in chips)
Seat 4: Gugrand (1835 in chips)
Seat 5: FR Vessant (1660 in chips)
Seat 6: svargas (1120 in chips)
Seat 7: luckyluke711 (1465 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (2400 in chips)
Seat 9: Rollar (2515 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 15
svargas: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Kh Ad]
luckyluke711: folds
Kevgj454: folds
Rollar: folds
jivehoney2: folds
catsonny: folds
Gugrand: raises 60 to 90

This guy has been pretty tight, but he has the button, so I'm not necessarily putting him on a really tight range.

FR Vessant: raises 120 to 210

So I threebet. I actually don't normally threebet out of position. I'd typically flatcall. However, it seems to me that I can define my hand pretty well here by threebetting. If he's very strong, he is likely to shove over, and if he isn't, he will likely fold, and I won't have to play postflop guessing games with it.

svargas: calls 180

So that's not goodThis guy has been semiloose, but not extremely so. I'm not sure what range to put him on because these guys so often surprise you. I guess he can have a lot of pairs and some broadways in his range.

I mean, I've threebet so he shouldn't be superwide.

Gugrand: folds
*** FLOP *** [7h 8d 3s]

Here's the difficult thing. This flop sucks for me. It's not all that likely to have hit him but he may have begun with a better hand.

I can bet, and if he calls or raises, I think I'm done with it. It's a fairly dry flop, so I can't imagine he's trying to push me off a hand if he shoves. I think he should fold overcards, but I can't be sure. They don't often bluffraise, but you have to give him a small chance of it.

If he has a pair, he's never folding on this flop.

I can check, but I think that turns my hand face up and I have to fold when he bets. It won't even be "if". They never check behind. I mean, checking with AA would make sense because these clowns put you on AK every time and try to push you off it.

So is betting profitable?

FR Vessant: bets 270

Well, I try it.

svargas: raises 640 to 910 and is all-in

But I dunno. I think I should have checkfolded. Now I'm stuck in a shitty position and I hate that I bet.

0000

This is why my month is shitty though:

PokerStars Game #30218901413: Tournament #177697279, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2009/07/08 0:52:18 ET
Table '177697279 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: marsmac (2218 in chips)
Seat 3: Backwoodsman (1735 in chips)
Seat 4: Mixien (1622 in chips)
Seat 5: JZarse (1455 in chips)
Seat 6: FatStack911 (4175 in chips)
Seat 7: JC Cub (1020 in chips)
Seat 8: FR Vessant (1275 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 50
marsmac: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [9c Ah]
Backwoodsman: folds
Mixien has timed out
Mixien: folds
Mixien is sitting out
JZarse: folds
Mixien has returned
FatStack911: calls 100

Playing 37/11.

JC Cub: calls 100

Playing something like 40/10.

FR Vessant: raises 1175 to 1275 and is all-in

So I should have tons of fold equity here. And even if one calls, I should be ahead, because he ought to be raising better aces and most pairs.

marsmac: folds
FatStack911: raises 2900 to 4175 and is all-in

OMG.

JC Cub: folds
Uncalled bet (2900) returned to FatStack911

He has AQs. If you want to know how you can even conceivably lose money to these droolers, this is how. Who traps with AQs for fuck's sake? It would actually make less money in the long run than taking the blinds.

Again, these fish think that this sort of thing is super clever when they catch you with A9. They consider it a huge injustice when you have 53 in the BB and catch two pair or you suck out and hit your 9. But what they don't realise is that an aggressive player like me makes this shove all the time, and I profit from it. I factor in the dumb traps when I consider doing it.

Not that their traps always work:

PokerStars Game #30219060445: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/07/08 1:00:41 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: catsonny (1580 in chips)
Seat 5: FR Vessant (3785 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (4865 in chips)
Seat 9: Rollar (3270 in chips)
Kevgj454: posts small blind 75
Rollar: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Ah Qh]
catsonny: raises 150 to 300

Why minraise in his spot? I guess he could have something but I'm not folding my hand in this spot. The problem is that these guys also steal with minraises and like to minraise small pairs. This guy has minraised more than once, although I haven't seen him do it utg.

I think my hand is too strong to fold against a shorty even if I am suspicious, so I don't fold.

FR Vessant: raises 600 to 900

I raise to discourage the others from entering the pot.

Kevgj454: folds
Rollar: folds
catsonny: raises 600 to 1500

He actually leaves himself with 80 behind, which is cute. I'm not folding obviously.
FR Vessant: calls 600
*** FLOP *** [9s Qc 3d]

Well, if he has AA, this is going to hurt.

catsonny: bets 80 and is all-in
FR Vessant: calls 80

He has JJ.

Couple hands later, just to show that I am not married to AQ or anything:

PokerStars Game #30219076960: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/07/08 1:01:34 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 5: FR Vessant (5440 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (5015 in chips)
Seat 9: Rollar (3045 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 75
Kevgj454: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Qs Ah]
Rollar: folds
FR Vessant: raises 300 to 450

Standard raise.

Kevgj454: raises 4565 to 5015 and is all-in

Thing is, this guy has been loose but not particularly aggressive. I think he has to have a strong hand, given my read so

FR Vessant: folds

Uncalled bet (4565) returned to Kevgj454
Kevgj454 collected 900 from pot
Kevgj454: shows [Jc Js] (a pair of Jacks)

Well, I suppose I had some overlay but I'm pretty content to have folded there.

However later on:

PokerStars Game #30219183005: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/07/08 1:07:32 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 5: FR Vessant (5665 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (5690 in chips)
Seat 9: Rollar (2145 in chips)
FR Vessant: posts small blind 75
Kevgj454: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [9h 9c]
Rollar: folds
FR Vessant: raises 300 to 450
Kevgj454: calls 300

Can have a very wide range.

*** FLOP *** [6c 2h Js]
FR Vessant: bets 600

I am obviously going to cbet even with the overcard.

Kevgj454: raises 4640 to 5240 and is all-in

But now I have to fold.

Having folded earlier, is he encouraged and is now bluffing? I dunno. I do think I can have the best hand but on a flop this dry, it's hard to put him on the bluff because he'd have to have absolutely nothing. So

FR Vessant: folds

0000

Not that it did me too much harm:

PokerStars Game #30219235910: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/07/08 1:10:33 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 5: FR Vessant (3790 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (8315 in chips)
Seat 9: Rollar (1395 in chips)
Rollar: posts small blind 100
FR Vessant: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [Kh Ad]
Kevgj454: raises 400 to 600
Rollar: raises 795 to 1395 and is all-in

Woah! Hold on!

FR Vessant: raises 2395 to 3790 and is all-in

I'm getting it in because even though Rollar probably has a strong range, I'm going to have to be beaten by both to come third even if Kevgj454 calls (because I outchip Rollar). I'd obviously have a really nice stack if either I win outright or I beat just Kev.

Kevgj454: calls 3190

He has KK. The other guy has a pair of 6s.

Yuk. Still, at least I'm a big favourite to come second. And there's always spiking the ace, right?

*** FLOP *** [5c 9d Qc]
*** TURN *** [5c 9d Qc] [Jh]

Hold on! Now I have a ten or an ace to win. Come on!

*** RIVER *** [5c 9d Qc Jh] [Th]

woot.

Kev decided to do more trapping later, and really, this is why you don't do this sort of thing:

PokerStars Game #30219251392: Tournament #177697288, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/07/08 1:11:22 ET
Table '177697288 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 5: FR Vessant (9575 in chips)
Seat 8: Kevgj454 (3925 in chips)
Kevgj454: posts small blind 100
FR Vessant: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [4d 2d]
Kevgj454: calls 100
FR Vessant: checks
*** FLOP *** [4s 3s 7h]
FR Vessant: checks

I don't bet, even with the flush draw there, because a/ I'm never putting a HU opponent on an FD, and b/ he can and will call with a 5, 6 or overcards.

Kevgj454: checks
*** TURN *** [4s 3s 7h] [4h]

Nice. I'm pretty sure I have the best hand now.

FR Vessant: bets 400
Kevgj454: raises 800 to 1200

Not too scared by that. If he has a better 4 or the flopped straight, that's poker. More likely he thinks I'm bluffing and he can rebluff me.

FR Vessant: raises 8175 to 9375 and is all-in

So let's get it on, bro.

Kevgj454: calls 2525 and is all-in

He has JJ, which he played about as badly as is possible. The idea of poker, put simply, is to make bets when you're a favourite at the odds, and pass them when you're not. Doing it the other way round is not going to make you money. But from time to time, it just might make me some.