Wednesday, 3 September 2008

2K but no celebration

I was excited about switching sites, and I started really well in the Tilt 12s. I think I'm easily good enough to win in them, but my good start has evaporated. I am currently on a 12 buyin downswing. It's not huge, but it's disheartening.

Am I playing badly? Here are today's games:

1. Card dead for the whole tourney, I shove TT, get called by QQ.
2. First playable hand is AK. I shove. < TT
3. 88 < AQ
4. I snap off a shove by a regular with AK. He has less than 8BB so he can have a wide range but this time he has 88. That cripples my stack and the same guy makes a looseish call a few hands later to bust me.
5. I win.
6. I shove over a very loose minraiser with AQ. She calls with AT. Niiiice.
7. I come 3rd when AJ < K7s.
8. I come 2nd. The other guy is shoving ATC HU and I snap him off with QJ. He has AT. Nice.
9. I raise pre with JJ. Flop is Q high. Some guy shoves, I snapcall. He has 77. He rivers another 7.
10. A9 < AJ. I wouldn't have been shoving A9 if I had at any point in the tourney picked up a stronger hand.
11. I shove 63s BvB and the other guy calls with K9. No love for that from the poker gods. I probably should have folded because the other guy was a reg and he'd probably realised I was shoving ATC.
12. A guy limped my blind UTG at t240 with JT, which is just horrible, and I shoved when I hit top pair. Sadly, he had hit a straight.
13. This:

Full Tilt Poker Game #7916342761: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (60192943), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:48:11 ET - 2008/09/03
Seat 1: BonzenBros (1,470)
Seat 2: noggie17 (1,515)
Seat 3: LENA19 (1,605)
Seat 4: basatagirl (1,420)
Seat 5: MancWank (1,580)
Seat 6: angelinababy (1,500)
Seat 7: GROUILLE (1,440)
Seat 8: it4lianjob (1,500)
Seat 9: geckogordon (1,470)
MancWank posts the small blind of 20
angelinababy posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ad As]


GROUILLE has 15 seconds left to act
GROUILLE calls 40
it4lianjob folds
geckogordon raises to 120

NICE. I'll get some action.

BonzenBros folds
noggie17 folds
LENA19 folds
basatagirl raises to 460

Rather lazily, I use the raise pot button. But never mind, that's a decent enough raise.

MancWank folds
angelinababy folds
GROUILLE has 15 seconds left to act
GROUILLE calls 420

Limpcalling 40/420 is not good play.

geckogordon calls 340

He definitely should have folded the holding he had.

*** FLOP *** [3c Qc 9h]
GROUILLE bets 980, and is all in


geckogordon calls 980
basatagirl calls 960, and is all in

Easy call.

GROUILLE shows [Jc Kd]

WTF? I mean, jeezus. Limping preflop is just awful. Calling the raise is inexplicably bad. Shoving the flop is insane. I suppose it was meant to be a bluff, but he needs us both to have missed completely and not to have started with a pair. He has a gutshot draw, so he is only a 5/1 dog.

geckogordon shows [Ah Qs]

That's a reasonable call of the other guy's shove but he should have folded preflop.

basatagirl shows [Ad As]

YAY. I win so long as I don't see a Q or a T.

*** TURN *** [3c Qc 9h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [3c Qc 9h 4s] [Td]


14. I shove AQs with about 10BB, which is a nobrainer and that's < JJ. I then shove 64 with 3BB and get iso'd by AT. It could be worse. My cards are live.

Well, so what? He flops a T anyway.


So anyway, I've finally played more than 2K games.

1014 $5 regulars at 35.4%
315 $6.5s at 24%
569 $10 regulars at 19.7%
5 $10 turbos at -9%
25 $12s at -14%
65 16s at -28.6%

I've also played quite a few $1 games on PokerRoom when stoned. I didn't keep my record of them, but I was running about 40% ROI over maybe 50. I've also played a few turbos on PokerRoom, all $5, and I was almost exactly breakeven (0.3%, something like that). And maybe a dozen Double or Nothing $5 games on PR at about 27%. I don't think that's sustainable though and they're no fun at all to play.

I know it looks like I suck at turbos, but I don't think I do. I ran so badly over a couple of nights at the 16s that I haven't gone back to them, and I think I will be very +EV in the Tilt 12s. The players in them are largely awful and I think I played well without much luck. The JJ hand was just incredible and the AA hand would make a lesser man cry. At neutral luck just for today, I'd be running in the positives, and probably around 15%. I think I'll probably make 10% in them and maybe better. There were quite a lot of regs in my games too, although few of them seemed actually to be any good.

My knowledge of ICM is fairly weak, but you don't need to have it down pat to be profitable in these games. I'll be working on it this month. I'm not going to get downheartened by a bad night. I've had them before, and I'll have worse. I only played 20 games today. I need to play 200 and run as badly in a day before I start getting all weepy. I feel that I played well and that's all that counts. Looking over my games in Wiz, I don't see bad plays (or where I do, I understand why I took -EV spots and I don't feel they were bad).

Overall, I've run at 22.6% over 2K games. That's obviously skewed by the many $5 games I've played. I don't have any illusions that I'm anywhere near good yet. I doubt I'll make it.

But I will keep trying. I hope to have a happy report in 1K games from now. I also hope it's later this year, because I intend to play a lot more. I'm going to keep Kelly bankrolling Tilt. I'm not in danger of having to move down because I played a couple of $10s because the number of regs in the 12s had got ridiculous (why these guys sign up to games that already have four tight regular players in them, I don't know, but when you've already lost a few bucks, it's better to steer clear, so I did) and moneyed in both.


Arleen said...


Anonymous said...

Read this post and this happens a lot to us all, not too much you can do about it, as long as you keep making the right decisions, it all comes back in the end. Your just running badly and it will change-GL catapult