AKs on a wettish board

Here's my bustout hand from the 33 deepstack I played the other night. I played pretty well in this tourney, and notably only had one bit of luck (got it in with AA vs a set of jacks and rivered another ace!).

Villain in this hand had been at my table earlier, and was playing a sort of semitag game. He seemed to have a clue.

So that I can discuss his play as well as mine, I'll tell you straight up that he has 65s.

Poker Stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t100 - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/464293
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): t30171 M = 13.71
MP: t8713 M = 3.96
CO: t108150 M = 49.16
BTN: t105323 M = 47.87
SB: t159768 M = 72.62
BB: t115550 M = 52.52
UTG: t127325 M = 57.88

Pre Flop: (t2200) Hero is UTG+1 with As Ks
1 fold, Hero raises to t3000, 3 folds, SB calls t2500, 1 fold


Not sure why I raised 3x because 2.5x is standard, but it could just have been laziness/tiredness.

When he calls, what do I think he has? I guess I'm putting him on broadways and pairs. I didn't know he was bad enough to call with SCs.

Why is that bad imo? I only have 27BB behind, so the implied odds aren't there. If you do flop a huge hand and stack me, you are only getting 12/1, and you won't do that very often. Playing draws OOP is difficult. We're a bit deep to CR allin, so if he hits a decent draw, he's going to often be flatting the flop and then hoping I have missed so he gets odds to draw. When I haven't missed or I barrel, he's usually taking two bad bets to try to hit it.

I suppose that if he hits a pair he can checkcall and then if I check my whiffed hands behind on the turn, he can hope for a cheap showdown. But if a high card comes on the river, at least on dry boards he's going to be unsure if I bet whether he is just valuetowning himself if he calls.

Say you have an 863r flop, he checks, you bet, he calls. His hand is pretty face up. He has to have a pair, probably lower than 88. The turn is, say, a J or a 2, he checks I check behind. Now the river is a Q. He checks again. If I bet here, can he call with his pair of 6s? I mean, people do, but you have to put your opponent on AK/AT/A9/KT if you do. Do I bluff with them more often than I actually have AQ/KQ, a cute QJ/JT/Q9s? Most people do not, in my experience, bluff here, so no, I think you have to fold your 65s.

Also, on flops that really aren't good for me, I can check behind and see a free turn. So he also doesn't necessarily get value for his pair on a lot of flops.

Flop: (t7700) Kd Tc 6d (2 players)

So I hit the flop. This is a terrible flop for handreading, but obv. a good one for a shorty who wants to make value from his AKs.

SB checks, Hero bets t4000, SB calls t4000

I bet fairly small in the hope of inducing action from Kx and to keep the draws in so I can bet again on the turn. I actually bet far too small and should have made it more like 6000 so that I'm not overbetting the turn so much.

On safe turns, I am always going to be shoving. His range for calling the flop is imo weak Kx/Tx/maybe 6x/flush draws/any broadways. He's not going to fold AQ/AJ/QJ for instance. Probably won't fold Q9/J9 even. And he may well call with any pairs that he had preflop.

So basically he is going to be calling with pretty much his entire preflop range. I didn't expect hands as weak as 65s to be in there, so I wouldn't expect to see 87s either. 98s is barely possible, T9s obviously is Tx and will mostly call.

So my bet is a mistake. Given that he's not folding anything, I should bet more! I want to get value from my hand. Yes, I can already be beat some of the time. If he has 66/TT/KT or the unlikely KK, I'm fucked. But he has a vast range of hands I crush. This guy was fairly aggro so I was sort of hoping that he might give more action with KQ/KJ and even other broadway draws. QJ has 14 outs against AT/99 for instance, and he can have combo draws that I'm ahead of but not a ton, so he might raise that and only really be badly behind the top of my range. Still, betting so small was a mistake.

Not because I would have folded out 6x. If he's calling 4K with it, he'll call 6K with it. He has to think I whiffed the flop or not be thinking at all. I think his call is bad because this is as bad a flop to hit a pair on as you could wish for. On many turns, I am likely to shove AQ/AJ/QJs when checked to. I have a lot of outs against Tx and worse and can hope to fold out a lot of hands that beat me, including 65s! If I check behind on the turn, you still face a lot of bad cards on the river and cannot really call another bet.

Turn: (t15700) 6h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t23071 all in, SB calls t23071

Why shove the turn? Didn't I just say that I would shove AQ? Well, on many turns I probably would, but not so much on this one. The paired board just makes it more likely for Tx/99-88 to call.

The reason I shove is pretty simple. Say he has QJo. If I bet 9K here and he calls, the pot is 33K and I have 14K behind. The river comes Ac. He puts me in. Can I fold? Getting better than 3/1 with 14BB I don't think so. Make it a 9 and it's even harder. Can I fold when a diamond comes? Very tough because it's such an obvious card to bluff on. I'm not likely to have a diamond draw after all. So I think I get stacked when his draws come in.

Whenever you are guaranteed to get stacked on the downside, you might as well ensure you get doubled on the upside. So I shove to force draws to double me when they miss. If they fold, I'm cool with that. I take down a nice pot and on that board, tbh, there aren't a ton of hands you're getting three streets with with TPTK.

The thing is, he had a superwide range on the flop and the 6 doesn't change much for most of it. He has a big stack and here I'm overbetting the pot, which doesn't look like it wants a call. He's not ever folding a K. Now, he probably doesn't have KQ/KJ but he can have K9, maybe a suited K8. He may call with some Tx. If they're not calling here, it's hard to imagine they will give me value on most rivers. But the key for me is to make draws pay me when they miss. I surrender the value from hands that might call a bet here but won't call a shove, but in this spot, I am more concerned about getting fully compensated for the times I'm stacked than I am about making a bit of value. I'm short and I won't be any closer to winning for being 9K better off the times he misses.

I don't know that I'm necessarily right but that's how I felt about it. If I was a little bit deeper, I think I would have simply checked the turn behind and called bets in a smaller pot on most rivers. I don't like doing that because this is a super bad board to give a free card on but it does prevent me getting stacked against 6x, which would be more of a concern if I was deeper. If I was deeper still, I'd be making a bet to give draws bad odds because I can then get away from checkshoves. When shorter, I can't, because most $33 villains with KQ/KJ and even JJ are dumb enough to think oooh, I has two pair, shove it over, not realising that I am just never calling with anything they actually beat, and I will have to call off my stack to punish them.

I'm not sure my analysis was all that good, but that's how I'm thinking about it. I was tired and stoned when I played the hand, but I felt like I was playing well. The flop bet is definitely too small, and my thinking was the wrong way round there, but I like the turn shove. I'd have liked it a lot more if he'd had K9!