Think about the future

So I'm playing a HORSE tourney, and I pick up 9d8d. Here is the hand:

PokerStars Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t500 (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com



MP2 (t666)

Hero (t6444)

Button (t6758)

SB (t16859)

BB (t3545)

UTG (t6537)

MP1 (t9133)



Preflop: Hero is CO with 9d, 8d.

2 folds, MP2 raises, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.


I should note that the raise was to 660 or so.



Flop: (5.32 SB, t2664) 4c, 7d, Jd (4 players)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB folds.



Turn: (3.16 BB, t3164) Qc (2 players)



River: (3.16 BB, t3164) 4h (2 players)



Final Pot: 3.164 BB (t3164)


So the other players start whining in chat. A guy posts "?" and I know he means "why did you bet into the sidepot?" So I tell him it was for value. "You didn't get any," he said. (The allin guy had A7 and I didn't draw out on him.)

I realise I am having a conversation with someone who knows nothing and I should stop. I say I'm too busy to give them a lesson in poker.

And the other guy says "dude, there is no value in betting at an empty side pot with someone all in".

But there is! How clueless can you be? A bet for value hopes for a call. I wanted both guys to call me, paying me 2 to 1 on my gutshot straight flush draw. I have 12 outs to beat top pair! If one calls, with precisely top pair, I don't make the value I hoped for, but if both fold, and the allin guy has less than top pair, which is very likely, I have 18 outs (and if I'd folded out a bigger 8 or 9, and an 8 comes, my bet was a coup!). By putting money into the sidepot, I also increase my chances of getting paid another bet when I make my hand. With the dry sidepot, it's easy for these guys to fold when the flush card comes. With money in it, they might think their pair is still good and call what they take to be a bluff.

Eighteen outs make me a huge favourite. Poker is about betting when you have the best of it, not about taking results as a guide to how well you played. You don't always get value when you bet for value. Sometimes you are actually behind; sometimes you fold to a bluff. But you calculate spots where you should have some value and make the right play. The only bad outcome for me in this hand is just one caller with a pair better than 9s or better (or who has several of my outs, or both: say he holds TcTd). As it happens, I had the 18 outs, and I was unlucky. They don't grasp that.

Players don't. They see what they take to be terrible plays and cannot grasp why they weren't. That's why it's possible to win. Take the following two plays.

In an sng, I raised with some shit like A6s, A7s. The BB pushed. I called. I was being offered more than 2 to 1 by the pot, and had him covered. He had a bigger ace, but I sucked out. Cue the whining. "Only idiots get lucky like that..." he whined. He thinks I'm an idiot for calling with A6s? Dude, only an idiot would fold. The blinds were high and he can be pushing pretty wide. Against the top 20% I'm 45/55! Against the top 10%, hands that nearly everyone would push from the BB in this spot, I'm 39/61. I think the guy's looser than he is tight, but even at the tight end, I have a thin call. The guy has just looked at his cards, and looked at my cards and thought, he's called with trash. He hasn't given any thought to the pot odds on offer, or to the fact that I don't know his hand until he turns it over, and must guess what he might have.

In another game, it's the bubble. I'm UTG with KJs. I have the BB covered, but not by very much. Neither of us is very very short, but we both have about 6BB. The bigger stacks have been playing tightly, and are not enormous. I shove and he calls.

He should show me AA/KK. Anything less is an autofold.


But he has AQ. If I push as loosely as the top 20% (and I don't), he is less than 60/40 to double up. But, as I discussed, doubling your chips is not doubling your equity, and this is a bad bet to take. This player will probably never understand that. Which is why, over the long term, he will lose money at sngs, and I will win it. (In case anyone reads this who doesn't get why his call is bad, imagine you have ten occasions to make it. You win six times, and lose four. The six you win, your equity increases from, say, $20 to $30, the four you lose, your equity is of course $0. So when you win, your equity gain is 6 x 10 = $60, and when you lose, you lose 4 x 20 = 80. These aren't the correct figures, but the general idea is correct. The fall in equity when you lose is so much bigger than the rise when you win that you lose money in the long term by taking even those gambles that favour you strongly.)

AQ is a good hand. It's hard to fold it. But being able to fold is a key skill in poker.

But was my push good? Surely I have more risk? Well yes, if I know he has AQ, and furthermore, know he will call. But I don't. (Well, I could be pretty sure he would call with that because he hadn't shown any sign of having a clue.) Mostly, all fold. There are a lot more bad hands than good ones! I probably wouldn't push this hand at a table that was calling loosely, but this one had been playing tightly, as I noted. My hand will play well if I'm called. My combined chances are good enough to make a push worthwhile here.