On the redline

Most serious STT players obsess over their redline. This is a measure of how "lucky" they've been with allins. If you win an allin, you gain over your expectation; if you lose it, you lose what you expected. In case that's not clear, imagine you shove 63, and are called by KT. You now expect to win 33% of the time. If you do win, you won 66% more of the pot than you expected, and when you lose, you lose 33% more than you expected. The gap between what you expected and what you got is important to STT players, because they can tell themselves they were unlucky if expectation is a lot higher than results.

I will note straight away that for most typical nitty 2p2 types, particularly those who do not shove enough, expectation will very much be higher than results. That's partly because you so often get it in with the best hand, and obviously, when you lose in that case, what you lose is further below expectation than winning would be above. It's also, as I discuss below, perversely because you tend to do the opposite later in the game and get it in worse when the equity involved is higher.

But there are other components to luck. I was thinking about this the other day. I lost 9ish buyins and I had about the unluckiest day I could remember. But when I checked my expected results, I should have lost even more! I had actually run good in allin EV. How was that even possible?

Well, here are a few things that most players don't even think about.

Take that 63 hand. If you make KT fold, and you often do, you gain his equity in the hand for free. You don't consider yourself lucky, but think. If I had KK, shoved and he showed AA, I'm not going to be unlucky when he wins (he's a 4/1 favourite), but I sure am unlucky that he had the only hand ahead of me preflop! I don't have the maths to hand how often I can expect that, but it's not often. If it happens to more than a time or two in a set, you are running bad. But your allin EV doesn't consider that. The same goes for the times you threebet the LAGtard who is raising half his hands and this time he has a monster. He may have raised 20 times in a tournament, and the one time you went for it, he had you beat. He may well have not had a better hand every other time.

But I am focusing on how lucky you are to get away with shoves. HEM will credit you with a gain because you took the blinds and your equity increased, but it doesn't credit you for folding out better. But villain will often make a Sklansky mistake (should have called if he could see what you had).

We all know it's unlucky to shove AA, get called by JJ and then watch in horror when a J flops, or to get it in on the flop and watch JJ turn his miracle card. But when you raise AA, flop rags, get it in and are shown a set, you are not considered unlucky by HEM. Your expectation then is very low and you usually get nothing. But he flopped a set! 7/8 times that won't happen but this time it did. Effectively you were as unlucky as with the JJ hand where you got it in pre. But if he flops it for a raise, you weren't very unlucky at all according to your redline.

The same obviously goes for the times you raise AK, get called by A8, flop comes A83r and you get stacked. Again, you are not accounted unlucky preflop where you would be if you shoved.

Nor does it account for longer-term patterns that we would also consider "lucky". You're supposed to flop a set one in eight times, roughly. But you can call 20 raises with small pairs and hit nothing. Or you can hit your set and no one else has a piece, so you have had your "luck" in hitting, but you gain nothing from it. Of course, you can also hit and then get sucked out on. This should all even out in the long run, but the long run is not a day, a week or even a month. If I have a day where I play a hundred games and hit 30 sets in the early levels, getting paid off with every one, do I think I'm lucky? Well, it doesn't show in my redline, does it? (I don't know how often I get dealt pairs or hit flops, but that strikes me as hella lucky!)

Also, your redline is skewed by high-equity spots. If I shove the first hand of an 11 with JJ, and get called by AK and lose, I lose 5ish bucks; but if I shove that 63 on the bubble with 4K chips and get called by KT and lose, I lose more dollars (I'm not sure how many, but say I have $23 equity, I would lose 33% of that, which is about 7.50 or so). I am "unluckier" to get caught when shoving with a worse hand than I was to get caught with the better hand. Sure, I gain a ton when I win, but losing is worse than winning (you lose more equity when you lose than you win when you win because of the structure of STTs: note that I'm not saying that you lose more when you lose with 63 than you win! I am saying that the downside when you shove is always bigger than the upside unless you're heads up, so that proportionately winning twice when a 66% favourite does not make up for losing once). So we tend to lose out both ways! We get it in better when equity is low, and if we run bad, our losses take many similar spots to recoup; and we tend to have the worst hand at high equity, so we lose more in dollars even if we run as expected.

A concept in two parts

Here's a fairly typical hand in an 11/27 that illustrates a couple of concepts that you grasp with experience (or one concept with two parts, I guess).

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NL Holdem $30(BB) Poker Stars Game#46704987178

nETP_XPYMOB ($1,420)
Shpuon ($1,460)
glavgrin ($1,460)
wheel_me62 ($2,440)
ae0066 ($1,200)
FR Vessant ($1,610)
ZJ=myhomeboy ($1,460)
JKoenig99 ($1,025)
rickdahick ($1,425)

nETP_XPYMOB posts (SB) $15
Shpuon posts (BB) $30

Dealt to FR Vessant As Ks

I have AKs. A strong but not made hand.

fold,
wheel_me62 calls $30
ae0066 calls $30

Two fishes have limped and many players are tempted just to limp behind. The fish don't fold they say. Then you miss the flop and you've wasted your raise.

FR Vessant raises to $150
fold,
JKoenig99 calls $150
fold, fold, fold,
wheel_me62 calls $120
ae0066 calls $120

And yes, not only do the limpers call, but another fish does too.


FLOP ($645) 5d 7c 3c

And I whiff the flop and will check/fold.

wheel_me62 checks
ae0066 checks
FR Vessant checks
JKoenig99 bets $330

This bet will very likely take it down. It doesn't really matter what bettor has although he can actually have a pretty wide range.

wheel_me62 folds
ae0066 folds
FR Vessant folds
JKoenig99 wins $645

So that sucked, right?

Well, here's the thing. Look at the pot size on the flop. It's pretty decent and that means that the times I hit, I'm going to find it very easy to get it in. Had I limped, the pot would have been much smaller and I'd possibly need all three streets, giving villain three opportunities to decide his shitty hand was not worth pursuing. Now I can commit villains on the flop and get them in on the turn, and often all the money will just go in on the flop.

And here's the second concept. Often the money will go in whether I hit or not. The other guys will now often be inclined to stack off, where if it had been a limped pot, they could keep it smaller. This is probably more of a benefit in 9mans but it's still useful.

Tilting again

Luck takes many forms in poker. A lot of people focus on allin EV and think they are unlucky if they run behind par in that, and they are somewhat, but you can be unlucky in lots of other ways. Here's a hand where I got my money in really bad, but I can count myself very very unlucky imo.

I hadn't been at this particular table long, maybe 20 hands.

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NL Holdem $1,000(BB) Full Tilt Game#18921016590

Tally Hooo ($55,426)
Albert Chuns ($63,214)
Dingle Tard ($43,760)
JMAVIS25 ($28,606)
mdfgreat1 ($10,027)
capro22 ($48,277)
basatagirl ($46,448)
pouppyshark ($36,077)

Tally Hooo posts (SB) $500
Albert Chuns posts (BB) $1,000
basatagirl antes $125
pouppyshark antes $125
Tally Hooo antes $125
Albert Chuns antes $125
Dingle Tard antes $125
JMAVIS25 antes $125
mdfgreat1 antes $125
capro22 antes $125

Dealt to basatagirl Qc Qs
fold,
JMAVIS25 calls $1,000
fold,
capro22 calls $1,000
basatagirl raises to $6,500

So I raise two limpers pot. I'm happy to play a big pot with this hand, obv.

pouppyshark calls $6,500

He's newly come to the table, so I haven't seen a single hand from him, but obv. I'm not happy to be called by a player with position.

Tally Hooo raises to $55,301 (AI)

This guy has 3bet on two of the four opportunities he has had, has raised several times and in chat, half the table is calling him a donkey. So I figure he is very often going for the squeeze here and it's impossible for me to lay down queens.

Except that they are queens, so obviously I am not going to win the hand. I don't know why I don't just fold them preflop. I've lost seven of the past 10 times when I've got them all in preflop, 13 of the past 20.

Still, this guy is a LAG, so he'll have all sorts in his range. This time, surely, we've run into JJ and we make it huge, right?

fold, fold, fold,
basatagirl calls $39,823 (AI)

Tally Hooo shows Ac As

Wrong.

Sighing all the way to the river

This is why I gave up playing on Tilt. I mean, wtf. The hand before, I raised QQ pot and flopped an A. Obviously villain's play is awful but as usual, he hits his hand. This happens to me routinely on Tilt. It really doesn't matter what cards I have or what cards they have. When the money goes in, I lose, simple as that.

I don't believe in doomswitches, and when you play low volume, losses feel a lot worse than if you play a lot, but I run so much worse on Tilt than I ever have on Stars. I'm at least 30BI below EV. And yes, I know I wasn't miles ahead on the flop. It's just the overall sickness. This is a deep tourney, 5K stacks, 12-minute blinds. You should play it fairly conservatively because you get plenty of spots to win chips. I have only 4K, so the implied odds aren't there for A9s -- if they ever are! I clearly have a very strong hand, so he has to get lucky. I know, you want the fish to call your raises when you're strong. I do. But I don't want the cunts to beat me every fucking time.

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NL Holdem $100(BB) Full Tilt Game#18888465027

LON64 ($8,861)
lurker31 ($6,110)
grumbles323 ($3,657)
1980pablo ($10,335)
alex0985 ($11,192)
Thunderstruck_5 ($19,490)
marrora ($13,195)
xander77 ($8,125)
basatagirl ($3,915)

LON64 posts (SB) $50
lurker31 posts (BB) $100

Dealt to basatagirl Kd Kh
grumbles323 calls $100
1980pablo calls $100
fold,
Thunderstruck_5 calls $100
fold, fold,
basatagirl raises to $650
fold, fold, fold, fold,
Thunderstruck_5 calls $550
FLOP ($1,650) Ts Tc 7s
Thunderstruck_5 checks
basatagirl bets $1,000
Thunderstruck_5 raises to $4,650
basatagirl calls $2,265 (AI)
TURN ($8,180) Ts Tc 7s Js
RIVER ($8,180) Ts Tc 7s Js Ad
Thunderstruck_5 shows As 9s
(Pre 33%, Flop 41.7%, Turn 90.9%)

basatagirl shows Kd Kh
(Pre 67%, Flop 58.3%, Turn 9.1%)

Thunderstruck_5 wins $8,180

Fuck Tilt

No really. Fuck Full Tilt. I quit playing there because I ran 40BI below EV in about 200 tourneys and it was getting ridiculous. I'd shove AA, get called by 54s and routinely they'd flop the straight.

So tonight I put some money on Tilt and nine times got 10BB+ in. Six times I was ahead, three behind. Of the six, three 70/30s and three 60/40s, of the three behind, two 60/40s and a coinflip I had the worst of. I didn't win a single one.

Now I know you can lose nine allins straight. And I'm not at all superstitious. But wtf. It's 3/10,000 that I should have that run. I doubled twice in ordinary play, so I did get in more than 10BB and win, but we're talking just preflop shoves.

I don't play high stakes, so this is only like 130 bucks or whatever. But it does feel like I just can't win on Tilt. The play is lol bad, so it's not that I'm not good enough. I mean, if people limpcall with QJ for their 10BB stack, you're not out of your depth. But if they hit the J vs your AQ every time, it doesn't really matter how good you are. SNGs are all about push/fold, and so ultimately are MTTs. You run super card dead for 30-40 hands, then shove when you get something decent, and if you never win one, you go busto.

You called with what?

This pretty much says it all. This is a 40-man $11 game.

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NL Holdem $300(BB) Poker Stars Game#39767157607

Funkytus ($6,178)
FR Vessant ($2,555)
RoLLeR7788 ($3,287)
dhdn1980 ($5,665)
neil_rick ($8,525)
llenti13 ($10,270)
WM80 ($9,043)
canaans ($4,040)
Anarchy-X ($10,437)

neil_rick antes $25
llenti13 antes $25
WM80 antes $25
canaans antes $25
Anarchy-X antes $25
Funkytus antes $25
FR Vessant antes $25
RoLLeR7788 antes $25
dhdn1980 antes $25
Funkytus posts (SB) $150
FR Vessant posts (BB) $300

Dealt to FR Vessant 5s 6h
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
fold, fold,
Funkytus raises to $600

Has openraised every time the opportunity has presented. He clearly doesn't have a good hand because his raise sizes have mostly matched his hand strength. I can't shove though because I saw him call off 5K of a 7K stack with J9o when someone openshoved at t200.

FR Vessant calls $300
FLOP ($1,425) 3c Td Tc
Funkytus bets $300

Has nothing, obv.

FR Vessant raises to $1,930 (AI)

Good spot for it.

Funkytus calls $1,630

Check his hand.

TURN ($5,285) 3c Td Tc 5c
RIVER ($5,285) 3c Td Tc 5c 9d
Funkytus shows Qh 5h

What. The. Fuck. Not only does this complete fucking clown call off the rest of my stack with Q5s, no pair, no draw, he has me fucking dominated. I was running well earlier this month, but the last week has been a bloodbath for my bankroll. Sigh.

Fishfood

This was a bit frustrating.


PokerStars Game #38087149596: Tournament #262010133, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2010/01/13 3:51:26 ET
Table '262010133 10' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: 555DAN (6135 in chips)
Seat 2: FR Vessant (3485 in chips)
Seat 3: unclepaullly (4922 in chips)
Seat 4: cobratatus4 (4195 in chips)
Seat 5: NjLiOnS (17988 in chips)
Seat 6: pAtcAsh83 (2890 in chips)
Seat 7: rsend73 (6475 in chips)
Seat 8: 23121969 (9005 in chips)
Seat 9: kouvidg (7302 in chips)
rsend73: posts small blind 50
23121969: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [8d 8c]
kouvidg: calls 100
555DAN: folds
FR Vessant: calls 100

This is a loose limp, but the table has been very passive and I figure often to see a flop for free. I consider raising the limper to try to get heads up, but I'm liable to get called in more than one spot.

unclepaullly: folds
cobratatus4: raises 350 to 450

That's annoying.

NjLiOnS: folds
pAtcAsh83: folds
rsend73: folds
23121969: calls 350

This guy's a terrible fish. He is playing 69/8 and I've seen him call a raise with K5s. I played one hand against him. I had AK and raised his limp. He called. The flop was 987r, he checked, i checked behind. Turn was a K, I bet and he called. River a T, he bet and I paid off the gutshot that he had hit. My call is a bit marginal because he probably does have at least two pair too often, but whatever.

kouvidg: calls 350
FR Vessant: calls 350

I call with the two fish in because if I flop the set I should have a decent chance to make some chips.

*** FLOP *** [4h Ts Ks]

That's a terrible flop obviously.

23121969: checks
kouvidg: checks
FR Vessant: checks
cobratatus4: checks

So raiser most likely has AQ, possibly a middle pair. The other two can have wide ranges, but you'd expect them to donk Kx.

*** TURN *** [4h Ts Ks] [Kd]
23121969: checks
kouvidg: bets 300

This is a very weak bet for a king and the board has enough draws that he is probably just taking a cheap shot.

FR Vessant: raises 2735 to 3035 and is all-in

So I shove what I expect to be best hand often, with plenty of fold equity if villain happens to have Tx.

cobratatus4: folds
23121969: calls 3035

Unfuckingbelievably, this guy actually had a K. You wouldn't credit it. This is a guy who has bet everything he's hit hard and got paid. This one time he decides to slowplay. Of course it's contrary. This is an awful board to slowplay on, so ofc the fish chooses to do it.

kouvidg: folds
*** RIVER *** [4h Ts Ks Kd] [Td]
FR Vessant said, "ugh"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
23121969: shows [Kh Qs] (a full house, Kings full of Tens)
FR Vessant: shows [8d 8c] (two pair, Kings and Tens)

Oh well. No regrets. My MTT record is very poor, but I do think I play okay. Usually, the fish has 77 in this spot and rivers another 7. It makes a pleasant change actually to be behind! Pity I didn't bink the 8 to punish him.