About shit

So there was a disagreement in the forum over what "unexploitable" means and I PM'd some guy who I'd asked a question about unexploitable ranges before to ask his opinion. He was quite rude about it, and I realised he thought I was sort of calling him out about it. But anyway, he agreed with some guy in the thread.

But the thing is, the guy in the thread said the opposite to what this guy had said before (basically that shoving any suited ace from the button with < 10BB is unexploitable -- which is correct because although the blinds can spite you, they can't exploit you; the whole disagreement -- stupid as it was -- was over whether unexploitable shoves are ones that blinds cannot make -EV with any range, or ones that blinds cannot call profitably with any range: the correct answer is clearly the second and the first is "unspiteability"; it's trivially true that all unspiteable ranges are unexploitable, but the opposite is not true at all).

So is the point that this guy will say whatever fits on whatever occasion? Well no, although that's obviously true.

The point is that this is something that makes learning poker very difficult. People talk shit a lot of the time, give opinions that they can't substantiate, just copy other people's ideas without understanding why they're right, if they are, are not consistent, know things work but not why, and so on. It's a minefield. When I "help" people, I try to explain my thinking, so that the person can see the stitching, and can take it apart if he or she has the ability to think it through. (I'm not immune from talking shit, of course. This blog is full of things I thought I knew and later had to unlearn.)

It's all complicated too by luck (as most things in poker are). People can claim to be knowledgeable because they make money -- and because that's how we keep score, surely it's a viable measure of ability? Well, yeah, it is, but you can run hot over quite long periods, so it's possible to be a winning player and to be doing quite a lot wrong. (It's a big worry for me and my own game: I'm very aware that I might have been above expectation for stretches of my "career" and I wouldn't know; so I try to think about how I think I've been playing, to analyse my play, to understand whether I've been good or just lucky. But still it's hard. There isn't really a test you can take!) So you find people whose thinking you like, and you think about what they say (and, mostly, liking their thinking is an outcome of thinking about what they say and realising it works) and you get a muddled, inconsistent brew of ideas. Oh well.

September results

My results this month shout at me, you are a fucking worm. And it's true, I am cowardly. I got the month off to a bad start and decided to do a lot of studying rather than playing. But what's the use of study if you don't get the experience to back it? So, yeah, another month with just about no volume.

You know what's frustrating? Maybe I'm a decent player. Maybe I could achieve my goals in poker. But I'll never fucking find out. Because I'll always find excuses not to play enough.

Anyway

I played a grand total of 66 games at 37.1%. That broke down into:

42 12s on Tilt at 35.5%
11 $10 regulars on Stars and Tilt at 56.2%
4 6.5s on Tilt at -37.7%
9 $5 regulars on Titan at 45.5%

I played the fivers on Titan solely to meet the requirements for a year's free membership at Stoxpoker, which is an astonishingly good deal! I also played a double or nothing and cashed, but I don't track results of those in Tourney Manager (I played a dozen or so on PokerRoom and made a profit, but I didn't enjoy them much and I doubt you can make much money at them).

So I ran pretty hot, but I beat the $10 regulars pretty well imo and I'm thinking that I can beat the 12s decently too. I expect to move up to the 24s next month, and that's quite an exciting prospect.

So my goals for October will be much more modest. I'd just like to play more. I'm away for the last week and a half, and I have to help Mrs Zen get ready for me to be away, which will involve doing a ton of cooking, which is going to cut my spare time, but I have to start finding time or I'm never going to get the experience that I need.

Just for fun, here's my graph for September:

mawh

Back to normal in the very next game.

If you're interested in learning how to play poker, the correct play for this fucktard would be to fold his hand preflop the first time round. When I shove, he should definitely fold. There's no way he's ahead, even if I wasn't a tight player. He actually snapcalled, and I was expecting to see a big pair.

Full Tilt Poker Game #8107333251: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (61668882), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:27:52 ET - 2008/09/17
Seat 1: GrumpyTony (740)
Seat 2: tl139 (1,440)
Seat 3: basatagirl (1,245)
Seat 4: scep99 (1,620)
Seat 5: chuckie1950 (2,320)
Seat 7: Hardecore (1,380)
Seat 8: redins502 (1,450)
Seat 9: renbo1 (3,305)
redins502 posts the small blind of 25
renbo1 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Kd Ks]
GrumpyTony folds
tl139 folds
basatagirl raises to 150
scep99 has 15 seconds left to act
scep99 raises to 350
chuckie1950 folds
Hardecore folds
redins502 has 15 seconds left to act
redins502 folds
renbo1 folds
basatagirl raises to 1,245, and is all in
scep99 calls 895
basatagirl shows [Kd Ks]
scep99 shows [Qc Ah]

That's terrible. More often than not he has three outs here, basically. I've only shown one hand this tourney and that was AK (which is why I don't have a full stack). I've folded everything else. But this is what you get in these games. He doesn't care what I have. He has AQ and it's a monstah!

*** FLOP *** [3s Th Qs]
*** TURN *** [3s Th Qs] [Ac]

Three outs are enough though, obv.

Well, that sucks, but I suppose I will enjoy the times I win.

Long way home

I've nearly had enough of this. Earlier, I had got it in with J9 on a KJ8 flop and watched 8s fall on the turn and river. Now this:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8106907701: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (61665462), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:37:19 ET - 2008/09/17
Seat 2: Simpleton531 (2,085)
Seat 3: prdx2222 (1,330)
Seat 4: basatagirl (1,390)
Seat 5: JDelRio4786 (1,300)
Seat 6: LI BULL (3,280)
Seat 7: x JEFFDIZZEL x (1,715)
Seat 8: jayess cheeks (1,155)
Seat 9: BeerAndJack (1,245)
JDelRio4786 posts the small blind of 40
LI BULL posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ks Kc]
x JEFFDIZZEL x folds
jayess cheeks raises to 240
BeerAndJack folds
Simpleton531 folds
prdx2222 has 15 seconds left to act
prdx2222 calls 240
basatagirl raises to 1,390, and is all in
JDelRio4786 folds
LI BULL folds
jayess cheeks has 15 seconds left to act
jayess cheeks calls 915, and is all in
prdx2222 folds
basatagirl shows [Ks Kc]
jayess cheeks shows [7c 7s]
Uncalled bet of 235 returned to basatagirl
*** FLOP *** [7h 7d Qd]

WTF.

Still, no need to get disheartened, right? ICM says I still have hopes of making money.

Three hands later, KTs, I shove, BB calls with K6, I double.
Next hand, JJ, I shove, BB calls with K2 (!), I double.

Down the track I shove BvB and from the button with ATC a few times, and my stack is respectable. I shove over a LAGtard's minraise with KQ, he calls with KJ, and my stack is up to 3.3K. I shove AKs and BB calls with AQs, and I have 4.9K on the bubble. Retard busts and I've turned 235 chips into money. AQ beats K6s and I'm second.

Now get this:

Full Tilt Poker Game #8107120441: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (61665462), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:01:13 ET - 2008/09/17
Seat 4: basatagirl (9,125)
Seat 5: JDelRio4786 (4,375)
basatagirl posts the small blind of 250
JDelRio4786 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Js Qs]
basatagirl raises to 9,125, and is all in
JDelRio4786 calls 3,875, and is all in
basatagirl shows [Js Qs]
JDelRio4786 shows [Td As]
Uncalled bet of 4,750 returned to basatagirl
*** FLOP *** [6h Qh Kc]
*** TURN *** [6h Qh Kc] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [6h Qh Kc 6s] [Tc]

WINNAR.

badbeatfuckwit

So I'm dealing better with tilt these days, and I'm mostly able to shrug off losses. I am getting into a good mental place. But one thing that I think is hard to accept is when you make a good, creative play, which isn't easy in an STT, and are not rewarded for it.

Here's an example, which made me pretty angry actually:

PokerStars Game #20290830241: Tournament #107327943, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/09/10 4:38:06 ET
Table '107327943 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: weepeel (4005 in chips)
Seat 6: FR Vessant (1640 in chips)

I'm short because I've been so card dead. The one time I did have a hand, weepeel completed his SB and I raised, only for him to fold.

I can't figure him out actually. He is the winningmost player I've seen at the 10s and plays pretty LAGgy. I think I'll have to look through his game to see what he's doing that I'm not, because his results are very good.

Seat 7: xSoujirox (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: badbeatfrank (4855 in chips)

This guy has raised my blind four or five times in a row, each time to 450 or 455. At 150, this was a standard raise. I have had rags each time.

weepeel: posts small blind 100
FR Vessant: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FR Vessant [9h 5c]

Nice hand!

xSoujirox: folds
badbeatfrank: raises 255 to 455

Again to 455, but this time it's barely more than the minimum.

Still, I have 95, so instafold, right?

Wrong. He is clearly stealing and it's time to play back. Cards don't matter because I should have fold equity. I expect him to be folding most of the time, maybe 3/4 of the time. The other 1/4, I will suck out 1/3 of it, and lose the other 2/3. So the risk/reward is good.

weepeel: folds
FR Vessant: raises 1185 to 1640 and is all-in

I shove.


badbeatfrank: calls 1185

His call is atrocious. He has Q6s. I am not kidding you. I have played maybe four hands all tourney and shown down only monsters. He has no reason at all to put me on a weaker hand than his, and at least 19/20 times in this spot I would have a hand that crushed his.

So the poker gods reward me for my good play and punish him for his bad, right?

*** FLOP *** [Qc 8s Kh]

Wrong.

Dunno

Can't win a fucking hand at the moment. Maybe not playing well, maybe don't know how to play at all.

I call a raise on the button with AQs, flop it Q high, the other guy has AA. I call a minraise with TT in position, lead a 9 high flop, third guy gets it in, he has a set.

Last night, I played a home game. I didn't play particularly well, a bit looser than I'm comfortable with, but I was doing okay. Some guy limps UTG. He's a retarded bad player who limps an extremely wide range. A couple of other limps, I check with Q9s. I can't remember what the flop was, but I called a bet legitimately and by the turn I had a gutshot and a flush draw. The other guy shoved. The pot offered me a fair bit better than 2.5 to 1. I had 13 sure outs and because this guy is completely fucked in the head, I figured I might have four more. Sure enough he had paired his kicker. His holding: Q8. I missed all 17 outs. Still, I had a stack, and used it to shove several times. Some horrible loosetard, who had earlier called a raise with 96 in the small blind ffs goes, you don't have any skill, don't you know any other moves, play flops blah blah. And I said, stfu, this is skill, which didn't satisfy him. So I shove AT, and retard, who has pissed his stack down to a couple of K, calls with J9. Obviously he rivers a 9.

So I chisel it back up to about 7K and this other guy, who has been pretending to have a clue, making a big show of going over hands when he has to make a call, limps. I have J9 in the SB, and I consider pushing, but I've pushed a fair bit over limps, so I figure he may be trying a trap, and instead of folding, my more usual play, I complete and BB checks. The flop is all spades, which is meh, but it checks round. The turn makes me a straight and I bet out. Mr Hollywood shoves and I snapcall. Basically, yes, he can have the made flush, but he can have lots and lots of other hands: Asx with or without a pair, two pair, air, whatever. I can't fold a straight and I betted enough to make it very hard for me to fold, so that I could get value from the calltard and one-card. Well, he had the flush. He had limped with J2s. WTF?

See, that right there is what makes poker hard to bear sometimes. I was fifth in this tourney. The remaining players were W, a weak player who basically donates online; the calltard, who is a complete fish, only still in the game because he sucked out on me twice; the fish who called my raise with 96 and basically hit every flop every hand, and played nearly every hand at that; and a guy who thinks that J2s is a decent hand to limp fivehanded just because you have a big stack. Not making any money in that company is rubbish.

But how come I wasn't better situated? How come I didn't have a bigger stack? Wouldn't a decent player have won there? I dunno. I just dunno.

2K but no celebration

I was excited about switching sites, and I started really well in the Tilt 12s. I think I'm easily good enough to win in them, but my good start has evaporated. I am currently on a 12 buyin downswing. It's not huge, but it's disheartening.

Am I playing badly? Here are today's games:

1. Card dead for the whole tourney, I shove TT, get called by QQ.
2. First playable hand is AK. I shove. < TT
3. 88 < AQ
4. I snap off a shove by a regular with AK. He has less than 8BB so he can have a wide range but this time he has 88. That cripples my stack and the same guy makes a looseish call a few hands later to bust me.
5. I win.
6. I shove over a very loose minraiser with AQ. She calls with AT. Niiiice.
7. I come 3rd when AJ < K7s.
8. I come 2nd. The other guy is shoving ATC HU and I snap him off with QJ. He has AT. Nice.
9. I raise pre with JJ. Flop is Q high. Some guy shoves, I snapcall. He has 77. He rivers another 7.
10. A9 < AJ. I wouldn't have been shoving A9 if I had at any point in the tourney picked up a stronger hand.
11. I shove 63s BvB and the other guy calls with K9. No love for that from the poker gods. I probably should have folded because the other guy was a reg and he'd probably realised I was shoving ATC.
12. A guy limped my blind UTG at t240 with JT, which is just horrible, and I shoved when I hit top pair. Sadly, he had hit a straight.
13. This:

Full Tilt Poker Game #7916342761: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (60192943), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:48:11 ET - 2008/09/03
Seat 1: BonzenBros (1,470)
Seat 2: noggie17 (1,515)
Seat 3: LENA19 (1,605)
Seat 4: basatagirl (1,420)
Seat 5: MancWank (1,580)
Seat 6: angelinababy (1,500)
Seat 7: GROUILLE (1,440)
Seat 8: it4lianjob (1,500)
Seat 9: geckogordon (1,470)
MancWank posts the small blind of 20
angelinababy posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to basatagirl [Ad As]

NICE.

GROUILLE has 15 seconds left to act
GROUILLE calls 40
it4lianjob folds
geckogordon raises to 120

NICE. I'll get some action.


BonzenBros folds
noggie17 folds
LENA19 folds
basatagirl raises to 460

Rather lazily, I use the raise pot button. But never mind, that's a decent enough raise.

MancWank folds
angelinababy folds
GROUILLE has 15 seconds left to act
GROUILLE calls 420

Limpcalling 40/420 is not good play.

geckogordon calls 340

He definitely should have folded the holding he had.

*** FLOP *** [3c Qc 9h]
GROUILLE bets 980, and is all in

wat

geckogordon calls 980
basatagirl calls 960, and is all in

Easy call.

GROUILLE shows [Jc Kd]

WTF? I mean, jeezus. Limping preflop is just awful. Calling the raise is inexplicably bad. Shoving the flop is insane. I suppose it was meant to be a bluff, but he needs us both to have missed completely and not to have started with a pair. He has a gutshot draw, so he is only a 5/1 dog.

geckogordon shows [Ah Qs]

That's a reasonable call of the other guy's shove but he should have folded preflop.

basatagirl shows [Ad As]

YAY. I win so long as I don't see a Q or a T.

*** TURN *** [3c Qc 9h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [3c Qc 9h 4s] [Td]

Oh.

14. I shove AQs with about 10BB, which is a nobrainer and that's < JJ. I then shove 64 with 3BB and get iso'd by AT. It could be worse. My cards are live.

Well, so what? He flops a T anyway.

***

So anyway, I've finally played more than 2K games.

1014 $5 regulars at 35.4%
315 $6.5s at 24%
569 $10 regulars at 19.7%
5 $10 turbos at -9%
25 $12s at -14%
65 16s at -28.6%

I've also played quite a few $1 games on PokerRoom when stoned. I didn't keep my record of them, but I was running about 40% ROI over maybe 50. I've also played a few turbos on PokerRoom, all $5, and I was almost exactly breakeven (0.3%, something like that). And maybe a dozen Double or Nothing $5 games on PR at about 27%. I don't think that's sustainable though and they're no fun at all to play.

I know it looks like I suck at turbos, but I don't think I do. I ran so badly over a couple of nights at the 16s that I haven't gone back to them, and I think I will be very +EV in the Tilt 12s. The players in them are largely awful and I think I played well without much luck. The JJ hand was just incredible and the AA hand would make a lesser man cry. At neutral luck just for today, I'd be running in the positives, and probably around 15%. I think I'll probably make 10% in them and maybe better. There were quite a lot of regs in my games too, although few of them seemed actually to be any good.

My knowledge of ICM is fairly weak, but you don't need to have it down pat to be profitable in these games. I'll be working on it this month. I'm not going to get downheartened by a bad night. I've had them before, and I'll have worse. I only played 20 games today. I need to play 200 and run as badly in a day before I start getting all weepy. I feel that I played well and that's all that counts. Looking over my games in Wiz, I don't see bad plays (or where I do, I understand why I took -EV spots and I don't feel they were bad).

Overall, I've run at 22.6% over 2K games. That's obviously skewed by the many $5 games I've played. I don't have any illusions that I'm anywhere near good yet. I doubt I'll make it.

But I will keep trying. I hope to have a happy report in 1K games from now. I also hope it's later this year, because I intend to play a lot more. I'm going to keep Kelly bankrolling Tilt. I'm not in danger of having to move down because I played a couple of $10s because the number of regs in the 12s had got ridiculous (why these guys sign up to games that already have four tight regular players in them, I don't know, but when you've already lost a few bucks, it's better to steer clear, so I did) and moneyed in both.